keysersoze123
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Posts posted by keysersoze123
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One aspect in regards to comps is ATP. Wonka had much higher ATP than what Panda is having. Elemental, Trolls, Migration are great comps for sure as they also had similar ATP to what KFP will end up at.
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9 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:
I saw the last First Big Openers of March (30M+ openers) in the last 10 years and i saw that they often have the same jump Wed/Fri no matter The Thursday drop
The Batman : +119% (8,47M/18,61M)
Creed 3 : +123% (3,37M/7,53M)
Captain Marvel : +121% (8,58M/19,03M)
Logan : +83% (5,64M/10,36M)
Zootopie : +224% (3,72M/12,08M)
Cinderella : +107% (4,57M/9,47M)
Mr Peabody : +130% (2,36M/5,45M)
300 Partie II : +87% (3,08M/5,76M)
In general ( unless Zootopie (animation movie so big jump) , 300 (bad WOM) and Logan (competition with Kong which have the same demo target) ) all the movie have a jump Wed/Fri around 110%-120% especially with the first 3 movies of this list with the same jump so it's my preidction for Dune 2 : 120% jump Wed/Fri , so if the prediction of 6,5M is good , my prediction is at 14,3M for Friday
Now For Sat and Sun : unless 300 ( same argument of Friday) and Zootopie/Peabody ( same argument of Zoo for Fri), the average of Fri/Sat jump is between 50-60% so it will be between 21,45M-22,9M , and i think he will match the same jump as The Batman (+51%) so my prediction for Saturday is 21,6M
For Sunday , the drop is between 30-35% and i think he will be around 30% so my prediction for Sunday is 15,1M
Total of Weekend 2 for me : 51M ( so around 38% !!! better than Oppenheimer)
A little better than you anticipate @keysersoze123
PS : i will update with Wednesday actuals tomorrow
I like to be conservative.
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1 minute ago, Brainbug said:
Are you the messiah?
To me it obvious from yesterday. Its Imax/PLF have similar sales for entire week and WOM is out of the world. Why will it drop like a Super hero movie or normal blockbuster. We should be comping this with Oppenheimer which dropped on tuesday and then had a mild wednesday drop.
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5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:
Ok. We will see. I am thinking 20% or tad lower.
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21 minutes ago, patyx said:
Yeah, the PLFs are basically a flat bonus. Only the regular screns exhibit normal daily/wekly drops, while the PLFs are basically constant, every showing nearly full for the next 2 weeks
Yes. PLFs are flat for a while. That is why its not going to have big drops. Even shows even 2D shows are showing good occupancy in big markets I checked. its riding the strong WOM at this point. I think everyone will realize it after the upcoming weekend for sure.
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1 minute ago, TheFlatLannister said:
A family film vs a Cinephile film
Presales won’t tell the whole story I think
Dune had strong walkups over the weekend. Normally I would say you are right but movies in 2nd weekend tend to be slightly less presales driven. We will see for sure.
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Just now, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:
I think a sub-50% drop this weekend is looking great rn. I'll go with 48% for this weekend for now, but we'll see how Wednesday holds.
Also think the 3X multiplier dreams just got brighter.I am thinking high 40s 2nd weekend. Its presales are extremely strong for this weekend.
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On 3/4/2024 at 2:54 PM, keysersoze123 said:
Just wanted to see how Dune is looking for 2nd weekend
Dune 2 MTC1Day 8(Friday) - 33702/504655 686411.52 2440 shows
Day 9(Saturday) - 50182/539227 945246.98 2636 shows
Its way ahead of Panda for the days and of course ATP for Dune 2 is way higher as well.
Dune 2 MTC1
Day 8(Friday) - 57379/753179 1120101.37 4399 shows
Day 9(Saturday) - 79744/787133 1449116.54 4595 shows
Friday is up like 110% from Panda while saturday is around 150% higher than Panda. Dont know how Panda can beat Dune this weekend. It should be interesting.
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32 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:
I checked out some places and looks like -25% to me.
Ok. We will see. I am thinking 20% or tad lower.
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3 minutes ago, stripe said:
Nice increase. Wednesday drop will be definitory.
25% drop: 6.1M (same as Scream 6, a bit over The Batman)
30% drop: 5.7M (close to JW4 and Zootopia)
35% drop: 5.3M (same as Creed 3, Logan and Us)
40% drop: 4.9M (same as Shazam 2, close to The Los City and Captain Marvel)
I would say between 30-35% will be the range
Impossible.
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Charlie is off here for sure. No way it does just 150m this weekend based on presales.
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4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
Monday had some offer I think.
Xfinity offer has been around for a while and its for Fandango and so not specific to any TC. As long as your theater sells tickets through Fandango you are good and I think most chains do that these days.
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22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:
Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1
Previews(T-3) - 18580/378162 279825.48 2543 shows +3758
Friday - 27674/569560 413519.36 3676 shows +7848
Amazing day for Panda. I dont know if @M37 is extrapolating where this is ending up. I want to see another day of growth. But looking at something similar to what most are seeing. Somewhere around 70K finish which should be ~3.75m previews.
Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1
Previews(T-2) - 22161/455754 331982.79 3137 shows +3581
Friday - 35874/792963 532176.58 5336 shows +8200
Weird that Tuesday growth was less than yesterday. Friday also went up pitifully(I expected 10K). Let us see where things are tomorrow. Now I am thinking 55K finish which mean be around ~3m previews (it will actually be lower but estimated higher).
Edit: Elemental comps put it at ~3.1m. its overall 28% ahead but daily pace is tad under 10% above that and so the comps will go down.
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its not dropping 27% for sure.
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4 hours ago, YM! said:
Any ideas for True Friday based on 3.75M previews? Ik it’s not Summer and will skew older but doubling Elemental’s true Friday presales at MTC1 is great.
Let us confirm with another day of how the pace goes. Only wrinkle is the Xfinity free tickets deal. Unlike other deals, this impacts not just MTC1 but any chain on Fandango. That will boost its OW.
I am thinking 10K, 15K, 30K, 80K (its outside summer) low 160Kish finish for around 10m true friday.
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Volde was on the point like at 4PM PST.
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On 3/3/2024 at 9:12 PM, keysersoze123 said:
Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1
Previews(T-4) - 14822/322836 224345.20 2106 shows +1608
Friday - 19826/475047 299899.82 2960 shows +3451
Definitely some sign of acceleration. Let us see how final stretch goes. I am still not believing in this breaking out.
Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1
Previews(T-3) - 18580/378162 279825.48 2543 shows +3758
Friday - 27674/569560 413519.36 3676 shows +7848
Amazing day for Panda. I dont know if @M37 is extrapolating where this is ending up. I want to see another day of growth. But looking at something similar to what most are seeing. Somewhere around 70K finish which should be ~3.75m previews.
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its crap but could do well like illumination movies. So I am not sure about its BO. Let us see how presales go for this. Its release date seems sub optimal looking at number of releases. But this could still do well in the crowd.
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Just now, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:
What are you thinking for INT so far?
Depends on how high china can go. Its looking really good and I am hoping for good WOM as well. For now I would say 450m OS.
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Charlie predicting 275m finish. This was the number I expected after 1st day of presales for early imax shows. I expected 80/275 due to very strong WOM.
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On 1/24/2024 at 9:01 PM, keysersoze123 said:
Looking at early presales, I am feeling very good about this breaking out. My early prediction would be 80/275m kind of run but it could go higher. Its going to be the 1st big opener/breakout of this year.
Crazy if this comes true 🙂 Now it looks like the most optimal result though I am holding out hope for 300m dom finish.
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Unlikely that Saturday could be off that much.
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Just wanted to see how Dune is looking for 2nd weekend
Dune 2 MTC1Day 8(Friday) - 33702/504655 686411.52 2440 shows
Day 9(Saturday) - 50182/539227 945246.98 2636 shows
Its way ahead of Panda for the days and of course ATP for Dune 2 is way higher as well.
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It would be great if Dune and Zilla break out in China. I think 250m yuan OW is reasonable looking at the pace. It should hopefully get chunk of Imax in big markets and so ATP would be high.
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
Lightyear had higher ATP than what I am seeing for Panda and Panda's ATP will keep going down with most sales being on 2D plus any discounts for kids tickets. Its not getting a proper PLF release. Dune is keeping most of them at MTC1 for sure.