[The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread]

On 3/2/2024 at 10:02 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire MTC1

Previews - 14934/522022 265337.76 2663 shows

Friday - 7985/588104 137245.71 3103 shows 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire MTC1

Previews - 18963/529081 335243.77 2701 shows

Friday - 11111/600988 191662.51 3165 shows

 

2 weeks to go. Still does not look like its going to outopen afterlife. 

[The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread]

Panda 4 previews are at 38840/464899 563138.32 at this time. I think it can get to 750K and 3m finish if it has 25% ratio like what @charlie Jatinder mentioned earlier. I am curious what @rehpyc has by end of day. 

[The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread]

49 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

KUNG FU PANDA 4

 

Thursday

 

T-0 *Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
639	4027	125188	3.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 1:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

998

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

112

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

1237

 

COMPS

T-0

 

(1.667x) of Migration $2.5M

 

COMP AVG: $2.5M

 

Yeah not seeing $3M right now, maybe it can get there with walkups. I'll go with $2.5M

 

Ruby GIllman is the only comp that gets me to $3M+ and that had bad presales 

How about Elemental and Trolls 3?

[The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Day 8(Friday) - 73308/755501 1405317.88 4420 shows

Day 9(Saturday) - 100087/788924 1787976.65 4607 shows

 

Its maintaining 80/90% of daily pace of last week. Similar ratio will take it 195K for Friday for 14m ish 2nd friday, 22m saturday and 15m Sunday for 51m 2nd weekend 🙂

 

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1 Saturday - 57517/875280 798886.43 5913 shows

 

This is as of just now. So around half of Dune in gross even if ratios are different. 

[The Warner Bros. Thread | Will NOT merge with Paramount...capitalism is still terrible]

3 hours ago, ZeroHour said:

It seems likely that Reeves and Pattinson want to do a trilogy and then be done. I don't get the impression that Pattinson is dying to be a major part of a cinematic universe. If Part 2 does well, they'll get Part 3, and I don't think Gunn will override that. Gunn would be wiser to leave Batman on the bench in his universe until Reeves finishes his trilogy.

 

Paramount and WBD never made sense as a merger because both make a ton of their money from linear TV which is a dying business. WBD taking on even more linear channels would be pretty dumb at this point. The primary issue that both face now is that they don't have other major businesses like Disney and Universal do (theme parks, cruise ships, internet, etc.) that can continue to grow and help offset the continued decline of linear. The Disney and Fox merger also showed that there are limits to the benefits of absorbing another big studio even if you do gain a lot of valuable IP.

Definitely let Reeves do the trilogy and I am with you on DCU holding back on Batman until then unless its a team up movie. 

 

But Battinson seems passionate about it. How about him playing DCU version as well. It need not be the same as Reeves verse. 

[Inside Out 2 | June 14, 2024 | Kelsey Mann directs. Mindy Kaling will not return]

Amazing trailer. Captures a teen emotions brilliantly. This is going to rule this summer. 

[The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread]

4 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

For The Debate that you have what is your OW prediction for KFP4 @keysersoze123 and @charlie Jatinder

I dont know man. Let us see how walkups go tomorrow. I think it goes below expectations. Free tickets from xfinity will screw up the extrapolations. 

[The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread]

6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

FRI tracked being 90-95% is quite normal.

Plus this is assuming all tickets are adult tickets. Which would be weird for a family flick. 

[The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Trolls 3 $8M+ is actual FRI

1 - 1.50M
2 - 1.10M
3 - 1.28M

 

Mini1 - 0.25M
Mini2 - 0.14M

Weird. I tracked just 100128/607860 1394136.12. So that was just 93% of actuals. 

[The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread]

18 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

@keysersoze123 Troll 3 FRI MTC 1 was just 18.5%. Never really bothered about looking chain wise share for small animation films but make sense they will underindex heavily in MTC1. Though I guess KFP may be a bit better than Trolls 3.

 

For everyone, Trolls 3 MTC1 comps for KFP 4  are $3.75M THU & $15.5M FRI. 

 

If they end up true, it could be

3.75
15.5
23
16 // 58

For Trolls they clubbed the early BO with Friday BO. so actual Friday BO was lower than what was estimated for sure. 

[3/4-3/7 Weekdays Thread | Dune $7.3m Monday, $8.1m Tuesday, $6.6m Wednesday]

8 minutes ago, Elessar said:

It'll probably jump like 50% on friday and we'll all come down back to earth, i'm telling ya!

Presales for tomorrow will be way more than that. So that is impossible. 

[The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread]

If only studios took the same formula for OS BO. Like 1 yen = 1 USD or 1 IDR = 1 USD or 1 Zimbabwe monopoly money = 1 USD. We will not have any more BO flops. 

 

[The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread]

FYI this came up in Canada BO thread but this is the most shocking thing I have learned about Box office in ages. 

 

  

12 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

CAD but NA BO is without conversion.

 

NA USD = US USD + CA CAD

 

USD 100 = USD 90 + CAD 10

 

Basically studios are making CAD = USD for Canada BO !!!

[Canada Box Office Thread.]

More i think this has to be the craziest BO info I have learned and following BO for almost 3 decades, I thought I have known it all.

 

Even WW total for movies are no longer valid !!!

[The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread]

For Panda to hit 50m OW, it needs to basically double the walkups that Trolls 3 had. That did slightly over 65K walkups at MTC1. So 130K walkups. I think that would be tough to do in March. Let us see how things go tomorrow before we assume anything. 

[The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Day 8(Friday) - 57379/753179 1120101.37 4399 shows

Day 9(Saturday) - 79744/787133 1449116.54 4595 shows

 

Friday is up like 110% from Panda while saturday is around 150% higher than Panda. Dont know how Panda can beat Dune this weekend. It should be interesting. 

Dune 2 MTC1

Day 8(Friday) - 73308/755501 1405317.88 4420 shows

Day 9(Saturday) - 100087/788924 1787976.65 4607 shows

 

Its maintaining 80/90% of daily pace of last week. Similar ratio will takeit 195K for Friday for 14m ish 2nd friday, 22m saturday and 15m Sunday for 51m 2nd weekend 🙂

 

 

[3/4-3/7 Weekdays Thread | Dune $7.3m Monday, $8.1m Tuesday, $6.6m Wednesday]

Saturday increase is still more impressive but this is under 10% drop from Monday. Its set for 50m+ 2nd weekend. 

[The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread]

On 3/5/2024 at 9:11 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 22161/455754 331982.79 3137 shows +3581

Friday - 35874/792963 532176.58 5336 shows +8200

 

Weird that Tuesday growth was less than yesterday. Friday also went up pitifully(I expected 10K). Let us see where things are tomorrow. Now I am thinking 55K finish which mean be around ~3m previews (it will actually be lower but estimated higher).

 

Edit: Elemental comps put it at ~3.1m. its overall 28% ahead but daily pace is tad under 10% above that and so the comps will go down. 

Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 27688/456367 411864.48 3144 shows +5527

Friday - 47914/810715 708369.90 5454 shows +12040

 

Definite growth after the drop yesterday. Previews seem to close around ~ 50-53k. Probably around 700K at MTC1 if you discount for some kids tickets. Its going to under index at MTC1 but still dont see more than 3m in previews. Let us see how walkups go tomorrow. 

 

Friday also grew well. Probably looking 80K finish by the time shows start. If it doubles that we are looking at ~9m True Friday. Let us see if walkups are even better than that. Saturday is probably the key. Dune almost increased 40% last week and so have to say 15m saturday and 12m Sunday can happen unless Oscar have some impact. May be even 100% increase if that is possible for mid 40s OW. Let us wait and see. 

[DUNE II | 427.1M overseas | 708.6M worldwide]

2 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

But friday is International woman day, which is a big moviegoing day in China. Typically movie jump >100% on this day, which probably lead to some frontloaded sales. 

Good point. Did not know that. So what kind of IM we are looking from OD. @Issac Newton said 70-80m yuan OD is expected at the moment. 

[Canada Box Office Thread.]

15 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

CAD but NA BO is without conversion.

 

NA USD = US USD + CA CAD

 

USD 100 = USD 90 + CAD 10

Wait. They are counting CAD as USD. So all records have a huge caveat !!!

[Canada Box Office Thread.]

23 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Dune 2

$9M weekend
$0.9M MON
$1.4M TUE

Is this CAD or real $ 

[The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread]

11 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Dune is MTC1 film. KFP is gonna underindex in MTC1.

Dune under indexed compared to say Oppenheimer or say some DCEU Super hero movies. That said Panda should do that even more as its not Imax/PLF driven at all. 

[3/4-3/7 Weekdays Thread | Dune $7.3m Monday, $8.1m Tuesday, $6.6m Wednesday]

24 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

6-6.25, more likely 6.

Also remember this is over indexing in Canada where weekdays hold are better than US. FRI jump is muted in CAN compared to US.

Canada is still tiny % of overall weekend for big movies. Later in the run they make bigger difference as movies are leggier in Canada. 

[The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread]

13 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Still think thanks to the nostalgia factor, KP4 will be a tick above the Trolls and Elementals of the world.  Closer to them than Wonka though, yeah there I'd agree.

 

If it wasn't for the "four tickets please" factor, I'd say Minions 2 might be nearly perfect.   Sonic 2 might be better in that regard, though probably still skewing more adult/teen than KP4. But we're also getting to the stage where the ATP hikes since then start to matter (as even though Minions 2 and Sonic 2 came out after the NWH/Bats related surge, probably still been drifting up a bit since then). 

 

If it wasn't so tepidly received   didn't have such a short presale window didn't have a ton of question marks around the reported preview number, Lightyear might be the best yet on a pure ATP factor.  But I made a vow long ago to never use that as an official comp, even though Shawn was told it was indeed accurate.  Might glance at it at final bell and see what it spits out for shits and giggles, but that's about it.

Lightyear had higher ATP than what I am seeing for Panda and Panda's ATP will keep going down with most sales being on 2D plus any discounts for kids tickets. Its not getting a proper PLF release. Dune is keeping most of them at MTC1 for sure. 

[The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread]

One aspect in regards to comps is ATP. Wonka had much higher ATP than what Panda is having. Elemental, Trolls, Migration are great comps for sure as they also had similar ATP to what KFP will end up at.