Jump to content

keysersoze123

Free Account+
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    16,552

  • Joined

  • Days Won

    94

 Content Type 

Posts posted by keysersoze123

    Oppenheimer | 2024 Academy Award Winner for Best Picture and Best Director

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    Glad this is over. I am not surprised from the moment I saw this last summer. Its so topical and in the moment and it got the required push from the studio as well during the awards season. I guess only movie that could have upset the apple cart would have been Flower Moon and that was a non event both as a movie release and got shut out today. I wonder where Nolan would go next. 

    • Like 1

    3/08-3/10 Weekend Estimates : KFP 4 : 58,3M , Dune 2 : 46,3M , Imaginary : 10M , Caprini : 7,6M

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    Interesting audience skew for Panda. Another animation movie driven by teens/young adults. Wonder if that would mean worse than normal drop for a kids movie otherwise. Weekdays will confirm for sure. Still phenomenal OW for sure. 

     

    Quote

    PostTrak audiences gave the fourthquel an 80% positive and 59% definite recommend whilte kids under 12 were 90% positive and a 70% must see. Male skewing at 58% with 67% of the audience between 13-24. 18-24 year olds showed up at a massive 48%. Diversity demos are 44% Latino and Hispanic, 22% Caucasian, 11% Black and 18% Asian. PLFs are accounting for 6% of tickets sales while 3D is driving 17%. West and South are the most vibrant with the highest grossing cinema in the nation for the pic being The Cinemark Tinseltown El Paso TX with a near $40K so far.

     

    • Like 2

    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

    I did not post yesterday night. But just FYI


    MTC1 Sat Presales

    Panda - 122375/889426 1640308.09 6066 shows

    Dune - 172991/790819 2953895.55 4632 shows

     

    I am curious if Panda walkups and lower ratio can overcome dune today. Presales for dune is up like 70% and it did have good walkups last saturday. 

    MTC1 Sat Final

    Panda - 345232/898569 4620805.16 6173 shows 

    Dune - 303483/791549 4993805.51 4643 shows  

     

    Even crazier day for Panda and even Dune did fairly well. Dune dropped sub 30% compared to last week as well.  

    • Like 7
    • Thanks 3
    • Astonished 1

    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

     

    Using last weekends MTC1 adjusted comps I get $13.18M for Dune this Friday. ATP was today 17.57 and last Friday 17.07. Let's see what the studio estimates tomorrow say...

    As Charlie said, MTC1 will have a bigger ratio this weekend. So it may not match last week. Anyway let us wait for studio estimates tomorrow. 

    • Like 1

    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    9 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

    Morning MTC1 update

    Fat Bear - 99377/818153 1424330.27 

    Dune - 124406/757475 2253457.86 

     

    There is no question Dune will finish comfortably higher but Panda ratios will be way lower. Let us see how things go. 

    MTC1 Friday Final

    Panda 4 - 214960/822544 3029385.90 5598 shows

    Dune 2 - 182574/757472 3208732.18 4441 shows

     

    Great walkups for the bear and overtook Dune 2 comfortably. Though Dune 2 did gross more at MTC1. @charlie Jatinder can Panda do 15m true friday if ratio is like 20%?  Dune 2 just over 37% drop from true friday. ~13m.  

    • Like 6
    • Thanks 2

    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

    Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1 Previews Final - 60821/464807 876836.13 3210 shows

     

    Very good walkups. This should be 3.5m if we go with 25% ratio. Will update Friday later. 

    Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1 Friday - 75984/815822 1105206.10 5509 shows

     

    Its about walkups any way. So where it finished today is not relevant. Assuming around 20% ratio it would need to be around 2.6m for 13m true friday(which will be around what is required for 50m OW). Let us see how things go tomorrow. 

    • Like 6
    • Thanks 2

    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Jerri Blank-Diggler said:

     

    The Angel Studios website currently shows that Total Pre-Sales for Cabrini are at ~473,000 tickets pre-sold. (This number has grown by ~200,000 in 2 days.) Of course there's no time period for ticket use given, but the majority seem to be purchased for the weekend as pointed out by El Sid, etc.  It seems like Regal's portal is not directly connected to the Angel Studios booking website, so the count is probably not fully live, which means this number may not capture all current pre-sales.

     

    At the $15 face value ascribed to the tickets by Angel Studios, that equates to ~$7,095,000 in pre-sales. Of course there has been rampant discounting (a 15% discount is still occurring on the Angel website), so would a fair average be around $12? If so, that equates to about $5,676,000 in pre-sales. 

     

    Since today is classified as opening day, then pre-sales for today would not be attributed to the weekend. To be cautious and estimate that $500,000 of those are for today, after subtracting those out, then that points to ~$5,176,000+ of additional pre-sales going into the weekend.

    Any comps with Sound of Freedom?

    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, M37 said:

    Fwiw, I'm still mostly in the lower $3s range for KFP4 preview, despite the new data coming in. Weekday values for animated/family movies are far more sensitive to secondary factors like when schools are closed, slight demo shifts can really impact ticket sales in markets, so bigger MOE on the comp values, even with the most analogous Trolls 3

     

    The biggest sample is MTC1, which should smooth out those variables, and difficult to see sub-$3M from the expected ~55K finish.  Now if MTC1 finishes at or below 50K, then we can talk

    Its ATP is quite low. I know Charlie said family movies have limited impact due to subs and so have to be adjusted up but this movie has even bigger catalyst in xfinity offer. So I am not sure if 50K at 14.50 ATP is sufficient to hit 3m. This does not even account for any discounted children tickets. 

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.

  I accept