code65536

I think it has a fair chance. A naive, blind projection of 30% drops each week puts it at 399.9M. If it gets close enough, LGF will probably do a re-expansion in the fall to push it through.In other news, the few actuals that have come in have all been higher than the weekend estimates.

Haha. I had used Netscape 1.0 and even NCSA Mosaic, briefly. Those were the days. Yes, the social Internet existed back then (ahem, Usenet), but people who used it were a small minority of the population. It didn't have nearly the kind of prevalence that it has today. And media exposure is no substitute for hearing it from your friends and family (e.g., all those Dark Shadows ads, interviews, talk show appearances apparently didn't matter much).

Fixed that for you. Yes, Titanic had great WOM. But most importantly, WOM traveled slowly in those days. In this day and age with things like Facebook, etc., WOM is much more compressed and concentrated.

You could toss in DH2; I wanna see the graph of a huge frontload.

Wow at Marigold's 178 locations beating five wide releases.And pretty good corrective rebounds for TLAM, THG, and TLO!

BTW, with regards to the weekends-all-in-one-thread deal, I think this would work much better if the first post of the thread (not just the thread title, since so little could be said in a title) is updated with each significant piece of incoming news.* Otherwise, trying to find out what's going on in these large threads is just horribly unmanageable. * Ideally, each update adds to the post instead of wiping out the previous information, so that people could at a glance see how the numbers and predictions changed as the thread evolved and so that the context to the earlier posts could be preserved.

Avengers + loss of IMAX + loss of nearly 800 theaters... I'm going to guess at least 40%.

I can believe that. Esp. since people who go to midnights are not going to be nearly as budget-conscious as people who casually stroll in on Sunday afternoon. The theatre closest to me had as many 3D showtimes as 2D.

Let's say you show up at a large megaplex. All 12:01 showtimes are sold out. But they can (and do) add a 12:30 showtime once they clear out a room from another movie that just finished playing. So worst case scenario, you just wait an extra half hour while the theatre adds capacity on the spot.

Probably dollar theaters.

Well, it's the average. I guess you need to figure in lower prices for kids, seniors, matinées, etc. And not every theatre charges an arm and a leg. Here in Kansas City, Cinemark charges $4 for matinées and $6 for evening tickets (evening starts at 6PM). (In contrast, AMC, which is headquartered here in KC, charges $5 for early bird, $7.50 for matinées, and $10 for evening, where evening starts at 4PM; makes me wonder if Cinemark is just trying to screw with AMC in their backyard... regardless, I paid a total of $8 for my two Cabin in the Woods screenings.)

Just $6M left to go to pass DH2!

I don't think we ever get finals for midnights. The 19.7M for THG was never revised again after Saturday morning.

Ouch, THG's losing 778 theatres this coming week.

TD YD Title (Click to View) Studio Daily Gross % +/- YD / LW Theaters / Avg Gross To-Date Day 1 1 Think Like a Man SGem $1,021,480 -24% -48% 2,015 $507 $64,087,550 13 2 2 The Five-Year Engagement Uni. $822,080 -27% - 2,936 $280 $13,384,585 6 3 4 The Hunger Games LGF $712,316 -18% -25% 3,572 $199 $374,317,455 41 4 3 The Lucky One WB $684,468 -29% -50% 3,175 $216 $41,735,713 13 5 5 Safe (2012) LGF $556,763 -33% - 2,266 $246 $9,926,740 6 6 6 The Raven Rela. $513,091 -27% - 2,203 $233 $9,096,032 6 7 7 The Pirates! Band of Misfits Sony $463,688 -23% - 3,358 $138 $12,731,702 6 8 8 The Cabin in the Woods LGF $400,392 -21% -39% 2,639 $152 $36,104,767 20 9 9 Chimpanzee BV $378,067 -21% -45% 1,567 $241 $20,174,149 13 10 11 21 Jump Street Sony $237,587 -22% -40% 1,820 $131 $132,724,034 48 11 10 American Reunion Uni. $236,665 -29% -48% 2,154 $110 $54,278,980 27 12 12 The Three Stooges Fox $213,954 -23% -45% 3,105 $69 $37,634,097 20 13 14 Titanic 3D Par. $150,780 -18% -55% 1,409 $107 $56,767,527 29 14 13 Wrath of the Titans WB $148,363 -24% -50% 1,572 $94 $81,030,531 34 15 15 Mirror Mirror Rela. $128,654 -19% -52% 2,017 $64 $59,300,624 34 16 16 Lockout FD $77,869 -26% -71% 1,259 $62 $13,603,289 20

Oh, and did anyone notice TLAM's PTA? Gotta have one every week...

LOL. Not even Avatar had Titanic legs. (er, propellers?)

I didn't think that it would be like Potter/Twilight either, but I wasn't on this board back then. (I was over at IMDb)

With 20/20 hindsight, though, it makes sense. It's got a rabid book fanbase like Potter, which led to its extraordinary opening and sharp 2nd-weekend drop. But it's also a new property, a franchise opener about a story that most people haven't heard of before (other non-sequels, like Spiderman or Alice are based on stories that have been around for many decades), so after that initial bang and die-off, it has the legs of a more typical non-sequel event movie. Haha. When THG broke the Fandango presale record, I said that it reminded me of when Katniss got that 11. There was a vague expectation that it would do well, but I never expected it to do that well.

TD YD Title (Click to View) Studio Daily Gross % +/- YD / LW Theaters / Avg Gross To-Date Day 1 1 Think Like a Man SGem $1,342,591 +7% -49% 2,015 $666 $63,066,070 12 2 2 The Five-Year Engagement Uni. $1,130,360 +38% - 2,936 $385 $12,562,505 5 3 4 The Lucky One WB $958,177 +40% -49% 3,175 $302 $41,051,245 12 4 3 The Hunger Games LGF $864,196 +20% -24% 3,572 $242 $373,605,139 40 5 5 Safe (2012) LGF $832,934 +29% - 2,266 $368 $9,369,977 5 6 6 The Raven Rela. $705,621 +20% - 2,203 $320 $8,582,941 5 7 7 The Pirates! Band of Misfits Sony $605,209 +15% - 3,358 $180 $12,268,014 5 8 8 The Cabin in the Woods LGF $509,693 +24% -42% 2,639 $193 $35,704,375 19 9 9 Chimpanzee BV $477,899 +20% -42% 1,567 $305 $19,796,082 12 10 11 American Reunion Uni. $333,555 +41% -48% 2,154 $155 $54,042,315 26 11 10 21 Jump Street Sony $303,625 +24% -38% 1,820 $167 $132,486,447 47 12 12 The Three Stooges Fox $276,614 +17% -50% 3,105 $89 $37,420,143 19 13 13 Wrath of the Titans WB $194,038 +19% -48% 1,572 $123 $80,882,168 33 14 14 Titanic 3D Par. $184,736 +22% -57% 1,409 $131 $56,616,747 28 15 15 Mirror Mirror Rela. $158,144 +10% -52% 2,017 $78 $59,171,970 33 16 16 Lockout FD $104,656 +22% -70% 1,259 $83 $13,525,420 19

IIRC, Oscar eligibility is based on US release; a film doesn't become eligible until it has had a US release, so unless it had a limited undubbed US run when it was first released, it should be eligible.

Monday: TD YD Title (Click to View) Studio Daily Gross % +/- YD / LW Theaters / Avg Gross To-Date Day 1 1 Think Like a Man SGem $1,251,280 -72% -55% 2,015 $621 $61,723,479 11 2 4 The Five-Year Engagement Uni. $822,085 -68% - 2,936 $280 $11,432,145 4 3 3 The Hunger Games LGF $721,922 -75% -29% 3,572 $202 $372,740,943 39 4 5 The Lucky One WB $683,349 -70% -53% 3,175 $215 $40,093,068 11 5 6 Safe (2012) LGF $644,504 -70% - 2,266 $284 $8,537,043 4 6 7 The Raven Rela. $587,678 -68% - 2,203 $267 $7,877,320 4 7 2 The Pirates! Band of Misfits Sony $525,071 -84% - 3,358 $156 $11,662,805 4 8 10 The Cabin in the Woods LGF $411,362 -65% -43% 2,639 $156 $35,194,682 18 9 8 Chimpanzee BV $397,389 -73% -47% 1,567 $254 $19,318,183 11 10 11 21 Jump Street Sony $245,250 -67% -40% 1,820 $135 $132,182,822 46 11 12 American Reunion Uni. $237,025 -65% -51% 2,154 $110 $53,708,760 25 12 9 The Three Stooges Fox $235,564 -83% -49% 3,105 $76 $37,143,529 18 13 14 Wrath of the Titans WB $163,311 -71% -49% 1,572 $104 $80,688,130 32 14 15 Titanic 3D Par. $151,136 -73% -59% 1,409 $107 $56,432,011 27 15 13 Mirror Mirror Rela. $143,466 -77% -44% 2,017 $71 $59,013,826 32 16 17 Lockout FD $85,828 -65% -70% 1,259 $68 $13,420,764 18 Tuesday: Tuesday's Top Movies: 1. THINK LIKE A MAN - $1.3M ($63M), 2. FIVE-YEAR ENGAGEMENT - $1.1M ($12M) 3. THE LUCKY ONE - $950k ($41M)