MattW
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Posts posted by MattW
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I could have this backwards but I'd guess walkups for Sun/Mon/Tue previews will be somewhat worse than normal Thursday previews. Maybe in July it doesn't make enough of a difference to matter though.
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On 7/2/2023 at 12:37 PM, Flip said:
It’s crazy that June of this year was ahead of 2022 even with everything but Spidey flopping, just shows how barren the schedule was last year
Yeah. I imagine it's a tough job for studios to evaluate how the recovery is going so they can spread their resources appropriately, they seem to have collectively over-estimated how much it would have progressed this year. Next year doesn't look great schedule-wise and the under performance of so many blockbusters this year might make them a bit skittish going forward. Right now I'd guess overall revenue for 2024 will be lower than 2023.
But who knows, we'll see.
Perusing this Forbes article that was posted in the weekend thread, it still sounds like exhibitors are still the ones to worry about though ("...it hasn't been such a fairy tale for theaters..." near the end), not distributors.
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Interesting we're getting so many openings in the same range, Fast x, TF7, Flash, Indie, MI7 looks to be in that range and possibly Oppenheimer as well. Does this mean blue beetle and/or Meg 2 break out?
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Not sure where else to post this, and I'm dating myself here big time, but going through some old stuff I found a bunch of movie ticket stubs I had saved from a long time ago.
I caught the change in ticket stubs at potomac mills mall late in 1999. Good times.
Kind of surprising to remember how many movies I saw at the time.
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With the flash underperforming somewhat, Elemental and No Hard Feelings also not bringing anything to the table, and Indiana Jones looking increasingly like it'll open right about at Flash's level (and even if a bit higher it's just previews+opening day), I think June will come in at around 960-ish million, basically even with last june, which is quite good.
My guess is we'll see about 700-750 from July releases (including Indi5) and ~125 from holdovers for a total between 800 and 900. The previous average July (2016-2019) was 1268.
Still, this year is well ahead of 2022 with every month either being roughly even with last year (March+May+June) or well ahead of it (Jan+Feb+Apr). July will be the first month to fall significantly behind. Aug+Sept I'll guess will be roughly even, Oct and beyond too soon to tell.
July 14 Edit:
With new info on MI7 and Barbenheimer July looks like it should come in in the range of 1050-1100 million. That's counting around 250 from barbie (approx value if it opens in the 130-150 range), and 100-110 from Opp if it does similar to Dunkirk's numbers. Both could be much higher, we'll see. Worse case 100m less than July 2022, but these strong late July releases will carry this year into August much stronger than the July releases did last year meaning this year will maintain a significant lead all the way through the end of the summer season.
In fact MI, Barbie and Opp, all three could very well play strongly into September boosting that month well above last year.
Oct will likely be as bad or worse than last year looking at the schedule.
Nov too early to tell
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MI doesn't have tuesday discount tickets at any theater by me (some cinemarks and a local chain).
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3 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:
I thought 2022 was very promising overall. This year is back to dark times it seems.
Is it though
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/ytd/
Things may be bad for individual movies but movie-going is up significantly over last year.
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The old DC universe was obv hurt by the announcement of the new DC universe, that's been discussed to death. What seems obv to me that I haven't seen mentioned anywhere is that if Gunn is supposed to shepherd this whole new universe into existence, why is he directing one of the movies. He's going to end up doing two jobs poorly rather than one job well.
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I'll take the high end, 82,775,225
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MI7 showtimes came up for the theater I go to. 2pm previews, 8 showtimes so far with a 2pm and 9pm imax show, so still room for one more showtime in between those two for imax. There's more previews for MI though I believe on both sunday and monday? I forget where I read that.
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On 6/1/2023 at 8:31 AM, stripe said:
Time for May's recap and June's forecast
May closed around 60M under my predicted cumulative gross. LOL at my predictions besides tentpoles. We need more middle ground success stories! In the end, May'23 closed just behind May'22.
June's predictions:Openers (800M)
Across the Spiderverse: 300M
Boogeyman: 40M
Transformers: 80M
Asteroid City: 10M
Blackening: 20M
Elemental: 90M
Flash: 180M
No Hard Feelings: 35M
Indiana Jones 5: 30M
Ruby Gillman: 5M
Rest: 10M
Holdovers (230M)
TLM: 120M
Guardians: 45M
FastX: 35M
Rest: 30M
June Cumulative gross: 1,030M, slightly over last year's (970M). We could see higher numbers for Spiderverse, Elemental, Flash, No Hard Feelings...
June still looks good to hit a billion. Before 2020 the average June was 1150 which would put this month right at 90% of the prepandemic average, second best month of the recovery so far if that happens.
2023 April 98%
2022 July 89%
2021 Oct 88%
2022 June 84%
2022 May 80%
2023 May 79%
2021 Dec 77%
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1 hour ago, GOGODanca said:
Man if MI7 is really doing discounted tickets on tuesday then all the comps will be pointless
I don't recall any Tues/Wed opening movie giving discounts, I'm giving this a huge doubt.
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I do something like that as well. Opening Friday and Tuesdays aren't very useful to get a sense of a movie's level and trajectory, I often use the ratio to sunday or m/w/th level, or a combination to smooth out the idiosyncrasies of a specific release
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26 minutes ago, Eric 2099 said:
Do we want Shia back tho?
It's funny, I think about Transformers and disturbia Shia, I wouldn't mind seeing that guy again. But I think about current Shia and.... no thanks.
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1 hour ago, baumer said:
The thing about the last two Transformers movies is that I think they were forgetting one thing that made the first three really enjoyable beyond the incredible effects, the 3d, and Michael Bay's frenetic directions style.... And that is they really cast name actors who added so much enjoyment. The first three films and then even into the fourth one with Mark Wahlberg had recognizable faces and each one of them in my opinion at least turned in memorable performances. When you have actors like Tyrese gibson, Bernie Mac, John turturro, John voight, Josh Duhamel, Patrick Dempsey and then of course Megan and Shia, it's a veritable and eclectic collection of character actors who added to the overall enjoyment of the films.
I don't know one name in this new film and I haven't seen much advertising for it. I don't know why I'm supposed to be interested in seeing this film. I'm not going to go see it just for watching Transformers fight again. We've been spoiled and treated too some of the best combat sequences in infinity war and end game. So unless they find a way to top that which they won't, then what's the point of going to see it? Give me someone to root for that I know. Put somebody in the film that I recognize. I think this new Transformers film is going to crash and burn in a spectacular fashion
20 years after the original, TF8 in 2027 brings them all back with Bay directing, 200m ow guaranteed.
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51 minutes ago, Wesley said:
Correct me if I'm wrong, ec doesn't have any additional presales info, he just gets it all from here. I don't recall him adding anything to the thread when he was posting here
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After 7 my interest in the F&F movies dropped to almost zero.
But, my interest in the box office of them is still very much there. To be precise, this weekend last year all we had was downton 2, and with GotG3 legging it out better than DrS2 after opening lower, and mermaid shaping up to open well but not as strong as Top Gun2, I think Fast X might be the tie breaker between last May's total and this month. So for exhibitors it's great, a nice mid-month boost. Should put the weekend overall well over 100m.
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With nearly a full day of shows at what point does it makes sense to start multiplying it out like from a regular Thursday,
+100% Friday, +50% Sat, -30% Sunday gives ~60m for the weekend, that kind of thing.
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7 hours ago, stripe said:Spoiler
A few days ago I calculated the average DOM gross of each MCU phase.
Phase 1: 291M average
IM 318
TIH 135
IM2 312
T 177
CA 181
TA 623
Phase 2: 307M average
IM3 409
T2 203
GOTG 333
CA2 260
AOU 459
AM 180
Phase 3: 449M average
CW 408
DS 230
GOTG2 390
SMH 334
TR 311
BP 700
AIW 679
AMW 216
CM 427
AEG 858
FFH 390
Phase 4: 369M average
BW 183 (*Covid)
SC 225 (*Covid)
Et 165 (*Covid)
NWH 805
DS2 411
L&T 343
BPWF 454
So DOM Phase 4 was under Phase 3, but still over phase 1&2 despite Covid. I would say that a 369M average gross with 7 films is more than great.
Yeah, good comparison. Maybe take out avengers movies since phase 4 doesn't have one yet.
Phase 1: 225
Phase 2: 277
Phase 3: 378
Phase 4: 285 w/o nwh, 350 with (including 214 for antman3)
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My favorite mario video, to commemorate the great performance this weekend:
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9.6 is solid, low 70s I think is a good bet for this weekend.
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A 30% drop from a strong Tuesday isn't bad, it's within the expected range imo. 70+ this weekend still very much on the table.
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Guaranteed drop today. 15m or even a bit less I'd guess.
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The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
Not sure how much access you have, but does this whole mtc have discounts? No theaters in my area do Tuesday discounts for new movies that release Tues or Wed, so it's surprising to me if there's a national chain that does.