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    UK Box Office Thread

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    13 hours ago, Heretic said:

    To be fair, 2nd weekend was not a 66% drop because the opening included a £12m Thursday. 3rd weekend was quite a steep fall though. Weather was very nice yesterday, and it was also the final premier league match day so perhaps that affected results a bit.

     

    The drop this weekend will hopefully be a bit softer before a very busy weekend the week after with Aladdin, Rocketman and SLOP2. 

     

     

    Third weekend was a steep fall because last Monday was a holiday so presumably Sunday was inflated. My guess is the drop next weekend will be considerably less than 60%.

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    Final Update  of my table showing Fandango Pulse Sales of 2nd Weekend Factor between AEG vs AIW as of Thursday-End. I would have updated to including Friday numbers and made updated estimates for Saturday and Sunday through the weekend but... Pulse went down AGAIN. So this is what we have....

     

        2019-04-22 2019-04-23 2019-04-24 2019-04-25
        MON TUE WED THU
    2019-04-26 FRI 3.06 2.30 1.62 1.41
    2019-04-27 SAT 3.08 2.49 1.77 1.60
    2019-04-28 SUN 3.45 2.77 2.01 1.80

     

    The factors seem to drop about 10% further going into last days or so I'm gonna drop the Sat and Sun number a little correspondingly to get final "day before" factors of:

    FRI 1.41            
    SAT 1.60 x 0.9 = 1.44    
    SUN 1.80 x 0.9 x 0.9 = 1.45


    Which if we apply to the Infinity War 2nd Weekend totals we get:

      AIW   Factor   AEG Est.
    FRI $31,456,749 x 1.41 = $44,342,675
    SAT $46,676,705 x 1.44 = $67,044,891
    SUN $36,644,356 x 1.45 = $53,282,680
    TOTAL $114,777,810       $164,670,245

     

    I think this should be pretty close to the weekend total, but we'll see. Friday value seems to be pretty close to the early estimates from @RtheEnd and @Charlie Jatinder are giving us which gives me confidence this presale comparison to AIW is pretty indicative.

    • Like 5
    • Thanks 3

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    Factor of Fandango Pulse pre-sale units between AEG and AIW as of end of Monday and end of Tuesday. Factor is coming down because AIW was able to increase a lot more in relative terms from a much lower level. By Thursday night, the factor might give us a reasonable estimate by comparing to AIW 2nd weekend.

     

        2019-04-22 2019-04-23
        MON TUE
    2019-04-26 FRI 3.06 2.30
    2019-04-27 SAT 3.08 2.49
    2019-04-28 SUN 3.45 2.77
    • Like 2

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by stfletch

    I tried comparing Fandango Pulse Sales for this weekend against both AIW second weekend and AEG first weekend, similar to how did things for the first weekend. Unfortunately neither method gave sensible numbers (the former estimates way too high because AEG 2nd weekend presales are so much higher than AIW 2nd weekend presales and the later estimates way too low because the presales were so much higher for AEG first weekend than this weekend).

     

    Oh well at least the estimate tell me it will fall somewhere between $21M and $366M! lol

    • Like 1
    • Haha 2

    Avengers: Endgame Monday Thread (4/29): 36.87M (3rd best Monday ever)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

    He probably would have flourished in the more free-wheeling ancient days of BOM

    I remember the BOM forum days! I used to post there quite a bit. Then I stopped tracking BO for a bit and when I got back into it, there was no forum, just the main site. Took me a while to find this site and a lot of familiar faces had transposed over. Whatever happened to the BOM forum?

    • Like 1

    Avengers: Endgame Monday Thread (4/29): 36.87M (3rd best Monday ever)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by stfletch

    14 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

    I am being conservative here, assuming there were a lot of pre-sales. Using the usual ratio from Sunday to Monday, it would be 40-43mn and surprisingly, this film is playing close to latter so far.

     

    But the safe number is 38-40.

    Insane numbers. I know its unlikely but if it hits the top end of that range, that's $400M I'm just 4 days!!

    • Like 1

    AVENGERS: ENDGAME WEEKEND THREAD l Actuals: $357.115M | $866.526M OS, $1.223B WW l Russos true box office kings l *** NO SPOILERS - Even Tagged ***| SALE NOW LIVE: 50% Off Gold Montly, 25% Off Gold Annually

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    On 4/27/2019 at 7:09 PM, RtheEnd said:
    On 4/27/2019 at 6:45 PM, Bonenash said:

    ehhhhhhhhhh not as funny as the saturday of IW rth came in and post a superman gift the  american football kick of clark kent :D

     

     

    he said 82m saturday and i was like WTF lol

    LOL yeah remember  that, and the one I did in Brazil forum astronaut on moon with I think holding a beer and looking at  earth in the distance and I put something like, forget everything that had come before and everything you've ever known. Something to that effect 

    Someone mentioned @RtheEnd's last super kick post earlier in the thread and he replied about it. Hope this doesn't mean it's only an 82 Sunday!!

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by stfletch

    10 minutes ago, Menor said:

    Ok it definitely is capped, but confused as to why the cap would vary between 3 and 4k so arbitrarily. Huh. 

     

    Also thank you for all the analysis you've done in this run, it's been some of the highest quality stuff I've seen on this site.

    Thanks! My job is basically financial analysis so it's nice to be also to use those skills on something I enjoy.

     

    And yeah, I'm sure there is a reason for the arbitrarily changing cap, but I can't figure out what it is yet.

    • Like 4

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by stfletch

    So the way AKValley's Fandango Pulse tracker so consistently has AIW capping out around 3000 for the top Avengers: Endgame number made me (and some others here @Porthos @VenomXXR @Menor @Stewart) think there is some kind of cap and that certainly seems to be the case. Here is the TOTAL number of units given each hour for all movies for this week so far...

     

    Look how often it is capping out at either 3000, or 4000, no way that is random chance. Clearly the number of units sold would actually have been way above those number in some instances. There are a few hours where it does go above 4000, so I'm betting that (for some reason), each hour either caps out at 3,000, 4000, or 5,000. If its below that we see the actual number, if it's above the cap for the hour we are missing some units.

     

    Of course this means that Endgame has been doing even better in the last couple of days than we thought. :ohmygod:

     

    EDIT: Note to say that since I probably wasn't clear, I'm sure it's Fandango Pulse itself that is capping out, rather than AKValley's scraper.

     

    22/04/19 00:00 2738
    22/04/19 01:00 1105
    22/04/19 02:00 720
    22/04/19 03:00 431
    22/04/19 04:00 295
    22/04/19 05:00 465
    22/04/19 06:00 1363
    22/04/19 07:00 2905
    22/04/19 08:00 3843
    22/04/19 09:00 3814
    22/04/19 10:00 2886
    22/04/19 11:00 3912
    22/04/19 12:00 3997
    22/04/19 13:00 4010
    22/04/19 14:00 4080
    22/04/19 15:00 3867
    22/04/19 16:00 4119
    22/04/19 17:00 3787
    22/04/19 18:00 4000
    22/04/19 19:00 4000
    22/04/19 20:00 4000
    22/04/19 21:00 4052
    22/04/19 22:00 4254
    22/04/19 23:00 4230
    23/04/19 00:00 4072
    23/04/19 01:00 2618
    23/04/19 02:00 1397
    23/04/19 03:00 796
    23/04/19 04:00 696
    23/04/19 05:00 1182
    23/04/19 06:00 2638
    23/04/19 07:00 2800
    23/04/19 08:00 1862
    23/04/19 09:00 3931
    23/04/19 10:00 3839
    23/04/19 11:00 4000
    23/04/19 12:00 3000
    23/04/19 13:00 4000
    23/04/19 14:00 4000
    23/04/19 15:00 3000
    23/04/19 16:00 3000
    23/04/19 17:00 4000
    23/04/19 18:00 4000
    23/04/19 19:00 3000
    23/04/19 20:00 4000
    23/04/19 21:00 4000
    23/04/19 22:00 3000
    23/04/19 23:00 4360
    24/04/19 00:00 4286
    24/04/19 01:00 3452
    24/04/19 02:00 1946
    24/04/19 03:00 1153
    24/04/19 04:00 1010
    24/04/19 05:00 1798
    24/04/19 06:00 3493
    24/04/19 07:00 3826
    24/04/19 08:00 3644
    24/04/19 09:00 3999
    24/04/19 10:00 4000
    24/04/19 11:00 4000
    24/04/19 12:00 4000
    24/04/19 13:00 4000
    24/04/19 14:00 4000
    24/04/19 15:00 3000
    24/04/19 16:00 4000
    24/04/19 17:00 4000
    24/04/19 18:00 4000
    24/04/19 19:00 4000
    24/04/19 20:00 4000
    24/04/19 21:00 4000
    24/04/19 22:00 4000
    24/04/19 23:00 4105
    25/04/19 00:00 4399
    25/04/19 01:00 3118
    25/04/19 02:00 2773
    25/04/19 03:00 1769
    25/04/19 04:00 1127
    25/04/19 05:00 2704
    25/04/19 06:00 3687
    25/04/19 07:00 2718
    25/04/19 08:00 3983
    25/04/19 09:00 4000
    25/04/19 10:00 4000
    25/04/19 11:00 4000
    25/04/19 12:00 4000
    25/04/19 13:00 4000
    25/04/19 14:00 4000
    25/04/19 15:00 4000
    25/04/19 16:00 3000
    25/04/19 17:00 4000
    25/04/19 18:00 4000
    25/04/19 19:00 4000
    25/04/19 20:00 3000

     

    • Like 3
    • Thanks 4

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    45 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

    Clever.     

     

    There have been *a lot* of valuable posters putting a lot of time into tracking this movie’s prerelease run (seriously @everyone, great job) but for me you were the MVP (well, and Wang, but insider connections are hax).

    Thank you! I enjoy the number crunching and glad you and a few others thought it was useful. Now I'm just super hyped to see this thing! Gotta stay spoiler free until Saturday 3pm.

    • Like 2

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    My previous methodology based the Thu-Sun split of the approx. 360,000 tickets that occured while Pulse was down on the first day after Pulse was back up. However, I think that first day probably would have had a much higher proportion of sales for the Thursday showing. So, as an alternative I used the split based on the first couple of days of pre-sales for Infinity War and this is what we get!

     

    AIW:

      MON TUE WED THU
    THU 135,699 150,926 170,797 204,244
    FRI 119,025 136,046 156,701 177,694
    SAT 95,621 108,364 123,769 136,023
    SUN 51,258 58,847 67,711 74,892
    TOTAL 401,603 454,183 518,978 592,853

     

    AEG:

    THU 277,621 291,403 310,132
    FRI 221,351 238,830 260,578
    SAT 184,166 197,792 214,937
    SUN 101,281 109,966 121,135
    TOTAL 784,420 837,992 906,783

     

    Factor:

      MON TUE WED
    THU 2.05 1.93 1.82
    FRI 1.86 1.76 1.66
    SAT 1.93 1.83 1.74
    SUN 1.98 1.87 1.79

     

    Estimate:

      AIW   Factor   AEG Est.
    THU $39,000,000 x 1.82 = $70,816,036
    FRI $67,334,939 x 1.66 = $111,971,392
    SAT $82,131,612 x 1.74 = $142,629,596
    SUN $69,231,632 x 1.79 = $123,855,559
    TOTAL $257,698,183       $449,272,584

     

    So conclusive proof that previews will be between $58M and $71M!

     

    Lol, or not.... But I still think they will come in around $60-65M.

     

     

    • Like 4
    • Astonished 1

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

     

    So Final Estimate for Thursday Preview based on my existing Methodology is $58MM. However, see my next post!

    AIW:

      MON TUE WED THU
    THU 135,699 150,926 170,797 204,244
    FRI 119,025 136,046 156,701 177,694
    SAT 95,621 108,364 123,769 136,023
    SUN 51,258 58,847 67,711 74,892
    TOTAL 401,603 454,183 518,978 592,853

     

    AEG:

      MON TUE WED
    THU 222,280 236,062 254,791
    FRI 188,824 206,303 228,051
    SAT 175,121 188,747 205,892
    SUN 120,786 129,471 140,640
    TOTAL 707,010 760,582 829,373

     

    Factor:

      MON TUE WED
    THU 1.64 1.56 1.49
    FRI 1.59 1.52 1.46
    SAT 1.83 1.74 1.66
    SUN 2.36 2.20 2.08

     

    Estimate:

      AIW   Factor   AEG Est.
    THU $39,000,000 x 1.49 = $58,179,219
    FRI $67,334,939 x 1.46 = $97,994,295
    SAT $82,131,612 x 1.66 = $136,627,193
    SUN $69,231,632 x 2.08 = $143,798,235
    TOTAL $257,698,183       $436,598,942

     

     

    Spoiler

    OK, so now the fun starts... this link from AKValley has now started showing Avenger Endgame http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_daily.txt

     

    From this we can see how many Fandango Pulse "tickets" (I will use units from now on, as we know it's not actual individual tickets that are tracked) have been sold for each day of the first weekend, by which day they were sold. In this calculation I have included an estimate of the number of units sold during the first couple of days when Pulse was down. Based on the comment from Fandango that AEG outsold AIW 5:1 in first week, I believe this to be around 360,000 units. I used the split of THU:FRI:SAT:SUN from the few days after Pulse was back to portion out the tickets to each of the days (in all likelihood the first day probably saw more sales weighted towards Thursday but I have no way of estimating by how much). In total this gives us as of Monday 4/22/2019, 9pm CST.

     

    THU 220,543
    FRI 186,674
    SAT 173,416
    SUN 119,706
    TOTAL 700,338

     

    We can compare this with how many units were sold for Infinity War as at the end of the Monday of opening week (using the historical data in the google docs on AKValleys FML website: https://fantasymovieleague.com/chatter/board/fml-main-chatter/topic/462064)

     

    THU 135,699
    FRI 119,025
    SAT 95,621
    SUN 51,258
    TOTAL 401,603


    And using the factor between the two and multiplying by AIW's actual box office totals during the weekend we can get the following estimate.

     

      AIW   Factor   AEG Est.
    THU $39,000,000 x 1.63 = $63,384,138
    FRI $67,334,939 x 1.57 = $105,605,430
    SAT $82,131,612 x 1.81 = $148,951,640
    SUN $69,231,632 x 2.34 = $161,680,661
    TOTAL $257,698,183       $479,621,869

     

    Now obviously Fri through Sun are increasingly absurd. This is because the % walk-ups vs presales for AIW on those days would be much higher than what we are likely to get for AEG. But if we assume Thursday was almost entirely presales for both AIW and AEG (or at least that the % of presales to walk-ups won't be all THAT different), this could be a good estimate, or at least a good top estimate. One caveat is that there are still a couple of hours to go of Monday, so this estimate will actually increase until we get the final end-of-Monday total for AEG. I can also refine this estimate over the next few days using EOD presales from Tuesday and Wednesday.

     

    TL;DR - Endgames has sold a fuck load of tickets already, and I believe the preview record is toast!

     

    • Like 4
    • Thanks 1

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    Last update before we start to get actual numbers!

     

    AIW Date Days to Open AIW Tickets AEG Date AEG Tickets AEG/AIW Notes
    2018-03-16 41 29,410        
    2018-03-17 40 16,237        
    2018-03-18 39 10,631        
    2018-03-19 38 14,574        
    2018-03-20 37 9,366        
    2018-03-21 36 8,281        
    2018-03-22 35 6,101        
    2018-03-23 34 3,753        
    2018-03-24 33 2,426        
    2018-03-25 32 3,655        
    2018-03-26 31 5,191        
    2018-03-27 30 4,647        
    2018-03-28 29 4,241        
    2018-03-29 28 3,060        
    2018-03-30 27 2,134        
    2018-03-31 26 2,471        
    2018-04-01 25 3,662        
    2018-04-02 24 7,257        
    2018-04-03 23 6,866 2019-04-02 330,000   Pulse down entire day
    2018-04-04 22 7,917 2019-04-03 40,000   Pulse down until around 7pm CST
    2018-04-05 21 5,692 2019-04-04 30,292 5.3  
    2018-04-06 20 3,618 2019-04-05 17,428 4.8  
    2018-04-07 19 3,383 2019-04-06 11,697 3.5  
    2018-04-08 18 6,363 2019-04-07 16,137 2.5  
    2018-04-09 17 10,828 2019-04-08 28,219 2.6  
    2018-04-10 16 8,670 2019-04-09 24,701 2.8  
    2018-04-11 15 13,960 2019-04-10 25,617 1.8  
    2018-04-12 14 13,332 2019-04-11 23,680 1.8  
    2018-04-13 13 7,614 2019-04-12 15,554 2.0  
    2018-04-14 12 5,602 2019-04-13 11,720 2.1  
    2018-04-15 11 9,314 2019-04-14 17,436 1.9  
    2018-04-16 10 18,403 2019-04-15 26,081 1.4  
    2018-04-17 9 19,431 2019-04-16 28,287 1.5  
    2018-04-18 8 23,790 2019-04-17 34,783 1.5  
    2018-04-19 7 18,788 2019-04-18 28,851 1.5  
    2018-04-20 6 14,281 2019-04-19 23,629 1.7  
    2018-04-21 5 12,368 2019-04-20 20,956 1.7  
    2018-04-22 4 27,180 2019-04-21 36,215 1.3  
    2018-04-23 3 48,861 2019-04-22 55,387 1.1  
    2018-04-24 2 55,376 2019-04-23 59,396 1.1  
    2018-04-25 1 68,137 2019-04-24 75,592 1.1  
    2018-04-26 0 76,734        
    * Estimate based on using Fandango Comment that AEG outsold AIW 5:1 in first week  
    **Estimate based on the fact we had about 1/4th of the days data
    • Like 4
    • Thanks 2

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    AIW Date Days to Open AIW Tickets AEG Date AEG Tickets AEG/AIW Notes
    2018-03-16 41 29,410        
    2018-03-17 40 16,237        
    2018-03-18 39 10,631        
    2018-03-19 38 14,574        
    2018-03-20 37 9,366        
    2018-03-21 36 8,281        
    2018-03-22 35 6,101        
    2018-03-23 34 3,753        
    2018-03-24 33 2,426        
    2018-03-25 32 3,655        
    2018-03-26 31 5,191        
    2018-03-27 30 4,647        
    2018-03-28 29 4,241        
    2018-03-29 28 3,060        
    2018-03-30 27 2,134        
    2018-03-31 26 2,471        
    2018-04-01 25 3,662        
    2018-04-02 24 7,257        
    2018-04-03 23 6,866 2019-04-02 330,000   Pulse down entire day
    2018-04-04 22 7,917 2019-04-03 40,000   Pulse down until around 7pm CST
    2018-04-05 21 5,692 2019-04-04 30,292 5.3  
    2018-04-06 20 3,618 2019-04-05 17,428 4.8  
    2018-04-07 19 3,383 2019-04-06 11,697 3.5  
    2018-04-08 18 6,363 2019-04-07 16,137 2.5  
    2018-04-09 17 10,828 2019-04-08 28,219 2.6  
    2018-04-10 16 8,670 2019-04-09 24,701 2.8  
    2018-04-11 15 13,960 2019-04-10 25,617 1.8  
    2018-04-12 14 13,332 2019-04-11 23,680 1.8  
    2018-04-13 13 7,614 2019-04-12 15,554 2.0  
    2018-04-14 12 5,602 2019-04-13 11,720 2.1  
    2018-04-15 11 9,314 2019-04-14 17,436 1.9  
    2018-04-16 10 18,403 2019-04-15 26,081 1.4  
    2018-04-17 9 19,431 2019-04-16 28,287 1.5  
    2018-04-18 8 23,790 2019-04-17 34,783 1.5  
    2018-04-19 7 18,788 2019-04-18 28,851 1.5  
    2018-04-20 6 14,281 2019-04-19 23,629 1.7  
    2018-04-21 5 12,368 2019-04-20 20,956 1.7  
    2018-04-22 4 27,180 2019-04-21 36,215 1.3  
    2018-04-23 3 48,861 2019-04-22 55,387 1.1  
    2018-04-24 2 55,376 2019-04-23 59,396 1.1  
    2018-04-25 1 68,137        
    2018-04-26 0 76,734        
    * Estimate based on using Fandango Comment that AEG outsold AIW 5:1 in first week  
    **Estimate based on the fact we had about 1/4th of the days data
    • Like 3
    • Thanks 3

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

     

    As expected, my Thursday Previews Estimate went down slightly based on Tuesday EOD Fandango figures. Still over $60M though!

     

    AIW:

      MON TUE WED THU
    THU 135,699 150,926 170,797 204,244
    FRI 119,025 136,046 156,701 177,694
    SAT 95,621 108,364 123,769 136,023
    SUN 51,258 58,847 67,711 74,892
    TOTAL 401,603 454,183 518,978 592,853

     

    AEG:

      MON TUE
    THU 222,280 236,062
    FRI 188,824 206,303
    SAT 175,121 188,747
    SUN 120,786 129,471
    TOTAL 707,010 760,582

     

    Factor:

      MON TUE
    THU 1.64 1.56
    FRI 1.59 1.52
    SAT 1.83 1.74
    SUN 2.36 2.20

     

    Estimate:

      AIW   Factor   AEG Est.
    THU $39,000,000 x 1.56 = $60,999,464
    FRI $67,334,939 x 1.52 = $102,108,138
    SAT $82,131,612 x 1.74 = $143,055,485
    SUN $69,231,632 x 2.20 = $152,318,286
    TOTAL $257,698,183       $458,481,374

     

    Estimate based on Monday EOD and Methodology in Spoiler Tags below.

     

    Spoiler

    AEG Fandango Units Sold as of EOD Opening Week Monday

    THU 222,280
    FRI 188,824
    SAT 175,121
    SUN 120,786
    TOTAL 707,010

     

    AIW Fandango Units Sold as of Opening Week Monday

    THU 135,699
    FRI 119,025
    SAT 95,621
    SUN 51,258
    TOTAL 401,603

     

    Hence, estimates are:

      AIW   Factor   AEG Est.
    THU $39,000,000 x 1.64 = $63,883,353
    FRI $67,334,939 x 1.59 = $106,821,730
    SAT $82,131,612 x 1.83 = $150,416,114
    SUN $69,231,632 x 2.36 = $163,139,363
    TOTAL $257,698,183       $484,260,560

     

     

    Spoiler

    OK, so now the fun starts... this link from AKValley has now started showing Avenger Endgame http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_daily.txt

     

    From this we can see how many Fandango Pulse "tickets" (I will use units from now on, as we know it's not actual individual tickets that are tracked) have been sold for each day of the first weekend, by which day they were sold. In this calculation I have included an estimate of the number of units sold during the first couple of days when Pulse was down. Based on the comment from Fandango that AEG outsold AIW 5:1 in first week, I believe this to be around 360,000 units. I used the split of THU:FRI:SAT:SUN from the few days after Pulse was back to portion out the tickets to each of the days (in all likelihood the first day probably saw more sales weighted towards Thursday but I have no way of estimating by how much). In total this gives us as of Monday 4/22/2019, 9pm CST.

     

    THU 220,543
    FRI 186,674
    SAT 173,416
    SUN 119,706
    TOTAL 700,338

     

    We can compare this with how many units were sold for Infinity War as at the end of the Monday of opening week (using the historical data in the google docs on AKValleys FML website: https://fantasymovieleague.com/chatter/board/fml-main-chatter/topic/462064)

     

    THU 135,699
    FRI 119,025
    SAT 95,621
    SUN 51,258
    TOTAL 401,603


    And using the factor between the two and multiplying by AIW's actual box office totals during the weekend we can get the following estimate.

     

      AIW   Factor   AEG Est.
    THU $39,000,000 x 1.63 = $63,384,138
    FRI $67,334,939 x 1.57 = $105,605,430
    SAT $82,131,612 x 1.81 = $148,951,640
    SUN $69,231,632 x 2.34 = $161,680,661
    TOTAL $257,698,183       $479,621,869

     

    Now obviously Fri through Sun are increasingly absurd. This is because the % walk-ups vs presales for AIW on those days would be much higher than what we are likely to get for AEG. But if we assume Thursday was almost entirely presales for both AIW and AEG (or at least that the % of presales to walk-ups won't be all THAT different), this could be a good estimate, or at least a good top estimate. One caveat is that there are still a couple of hours to go of Monday, so this estimate will actually increase until we get the final end-of-Monday total for AEG. I can also refine this estimate over the next few days using EOD presales from Tuesday and Wednesday.

     

    TL;DR - Endgames has sold a fuck load of tickets already, and I believe the preview record is toast!

     

    • Astonished 1
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