narniadis
-
Posts
7,439 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Blogs
Gallery
Annual Subscriptions
Media Demo
Posts posted by narniadis
-
-
19 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:
Do you have the data to say that?
He isn't one of the trackers. All depends on the historical data. 20-25% off (15-16m) would be a good baseline. Significantly better than Sonic 2 last year, but much higher drop than the more adult skewing Fantastic Beasts
I personally think it will end up around the 15m mark myself due to the kiddo skew but 🤷♂️
-
2
-
-
45 minutes ago, nerves said:
will Mario drop in Tuesday or will stay flat or even increase?
Drop, the flat or increase aspect becomes how small will the drop be.
If you look at past Easter weekends, the Monday is inflated then Tuesday drops, usually followed by a normal Wednesday (drops over 20%+).
The dropping has nothing to due with legs or WOM, its normal behavior from holiday(ish) inflated Mondays, such as when we have other Monday holidays.
-
4
-
-
7 minutes ago, cannastop said:
correct me if I'm wrong, but that Monday Mario number is a MAJOR overperformance, right?
Side note, since Keysers first read last night was ~16m (again, normal, but on the larger drop side) the final being 20m seems much larger - and so by nature it seems more major
that was a fun set of posts last night when Charlie dropped the 19m+.
-
3 minutes ago, cannastop said:
correct me if I'm wrong, but that Monday Mario number is a MAJOR overperformance, right?
Yes / no 🤷♂️🤣 its larger than it could be (speaking to the sheer size of the film) but fits well within the norm for family skewing flicks post easter Sunday.
The drop Wednesday will speak more to the over performance than anything this week imo.
We obviously arent used to seeing a film of any sort pull this kind of cash during the Easter frame.
-
1
-
-
53 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:
I guess it’s a lot different in this region of the country then, since I’ve never heard of SB being this late at schools I’m familiar with. When I worked at Disney World, we pretty much considered the season over by this point. Less familiar with the east coast though.
The southern states have traditionally had SB in march. Further up north this is normal timing, especially since most schools aren't getting out till sometime in June. Here in TX like 95% of schools were done during the 2 middle weeks of March, but like 90% were out Friday and most were out yesterday before going back today. It's quite broad all around.
Deadline showing that 40% of K12s were out yesterday nationwide shows the great inflation, which will again be noted when it drops decently today (while still being inflated.)
-
1
-
-
I will gladly take a small increase over the flat / small decrease that the past would indicate 😁
Heres to hoping Sunday just keeps it up. At least we know, barring catastrophic things, not of the film, it should easily join the 500m club which is crazy for an animated film - especially when such ones as Dory and F2 couldn't get there.
-
1
-
-
And my kids were begging today for when we could go see it again. And disappointed when they realized the old 4/7 release poster the theater had didn't mean for Peacock 😂😂
-
1
-
-
My only concern with Charlie's massive upper end is that the film actually plays like a Good Friday opener instead of a "regular" weekend.... Saturday at best will historically speaking be flat but more than likely down from Friday. Sunday is a wildcard since its a family film.
This is the fun of box office 😂 20 years in and we still can't always know exactly what will happen.
-
4
-
-
6 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:
Wrong question - who put it that high on their list or how did multiple people vote for it to be above 37 other movies...
Its definitely more entertaining than some of those below it, but its still toooooo high 😂
-
1 hour ago, MightyDargon said:
Super Pets isn't really comparable. I think it was the only animated movie that did "okay" last summer (since Bad Guys/Puss had different slots and Lightyear bombed)
Its an odd comp but I assume its being used as the last "DC" title and also one that didnt perform as close to original hopes (precovid).
-
As with all things movie wise, cultural impact is very much a generational thing and trying to compare across vastly different eras is nearly impossible.
One cannot deny the impact that B89 had on the overall box office and culture of the moment. Such similar arguments will be made 20 years from now about TDK in comparison to whatever is the next "big" Bat. Doesn't take away from either, but for the turf defenders of the respective generations.
-
6
-
-
This is where the mid-week inflation really shows its "ugly" head.... but the benefit of gross overall is still there.
Also, is AMWQ actually having a decent hold on the weekend another Super comes out???? Wtf?
-
Thing to remember with Puss is that it hit physical media this week, so that $2 redbox rental is way cheaper than theater tixs 😉
-
14 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:
I can't speak to reddit but on here people were happy and celebrating Avatar 2's 'bad' opening weekend. Did you see that thread on here?
Theres a difference between celebrating i.e. "Fuck Yeah its a failure" and those of us who kept hopes in check being amused that all of our concerns and points were valid. I.e. it was never opening over the 150m mark
and I still personally over predicted with my 142, but stuck to my guns even when the data showed it obviously not getting there.
The difference is you in particular, and the Avatar stans as a whole can't take valid criticism, so you feel like its a negative celebration when its not. Same issue with most of the MCU stans as well.
Case in point being all the angst over BPWF, when anyone without prejudice knew it would drop significantly from BP1 due to it's zeitgeist experience (same with Avatar, and TFA.)
**edit**
And it speaks to the strength of the experience that A2 will end up where it is, even with a significant drop in tickets overall. Quite pleased it made it over 600, definitely higher than the 550-600 that I assumed would be a cap **due to historical data when looking at franchise behavior**
-
6
-
-
10 minutes ago, Verrows said:
A bunch of movies on the all time worldwide chart just went up a couple million. Weird. Usually I don't pay any notice because little adjustments are made every so often but it's as if almost every movie just re released somewhere and added a couple million dollars.
Its normal for adjustments to be made in January to total grosses as the previous years books are closed. Usually seen more with current year releases (Universal used to be a big contributor in this regard), since films don't actually stop grossing once the studio stops reporting.
-
4
-
-
12 minutes ago, wildphantom said:
it did well enough in cinemas for word of mouth to be meteoric before it went on streaming. One look at the amount of reviews it’s got on Letterboxd tells you how much people are watching and recommending it. If they’d run a better campaign then I think the movie would have picked up a few Oscar nods too. I found it superior to Triangle of Sadness which has similar things to say.
I’ve had countless people in my office talking about it. As they have Barbarian, which was similarly timed.
Glad you enjoyed it. I thought it was terrific.
Same, wife and I watched it last week (and Violent Night last night) and thought it was great. Definitely in the upper set of my 2022 films so far.
-
3
-
-
5 minutes ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:
I think this is it. It got the IW style “darker than expected, too much for some % of young kids” knock
Yes, our 5 yo was a tad frightened of the Wolf at the start but by the end was cool, so I can see that being an aspect that knocks the score a fraction.
-
2
-
-
We finally saw Puss in Boots this week, took our kiddos on Thursday and it is sublime. Probably the best animation I have seen since Soul but one that just hit all the right notes in ways that DreamWorks hasnt in a decade probably.
Glad to have contributed to its $$.
-
11
-
-
The dooming has started and its not even Tuesday estimates yet 😂
That said, yeah, the runtime seems to really be biting the films weekday potential. Its one of many reasons I haven't been able to see it yet.
-
3 hours ago, DaFlexi said:
charlie jatinder be like
-drop 3 numbers without context that are all closer than estimates
-leaves for the rest of the day
i don't know how he gets his information but thank you Charlie!
He has directish access, hence why his numbers trend closer to the final than the others when looking at 1 chain or so.
-
1
-
-
6 minutes ago, baumer said:
When do kids go back to school in the US? Kids here are off this entire week and then everyone goes back to normal on January the 9th. So at least here in Canada the weekdays should still be huge this week.
All depends on where and what is required. Here in TX a fraction go back on Wednesday, some more on Thursday and then the rest on Monday. My kiddos go back Wednesday, and we are in one of the early districts (but have 4 day weeks all the time.)
-
1
-
-
32 minutes ago, XXR M37's Club Is Dead said:
A drop is expected, yes. We were just hoping it would be similar to the R1 drop (-20%) and not -26/28%.
Thankfully not pulling an Aquaman though 😬🤷♂️.
@Alex SciChannel I'd prepare for a rough drop if Avatar is going further. The best thing about the family skewing films on days like this, is the fact that while loss of evening shows does hurt, the evening shows arent the main family crowd times (usually.) Lets wait and see - I be a tad nervous.
-
It is funny and a tad ironic that the threads excitement overall has nothing to do with the box office gross, other than killing it in some places 😂😂 I was already a lower predictor (still too high) and the lack of pizzazz in this long ass thread is a sad statement on the Box Office performance.
-
I know I am pulling back from yesterday's conversation, but if you weren't on BOM (or WOKJ/Filmgasm) back in 2009, its hard to emphasize just how big Avatar's OW was in context. We can get into the xyz aspects of Decembers lack of big openings due to the legs instead, but you have to remember that at the time it was the #2 December 3day (and arguably, I Am Legends was also just as massive in comparison.) And only the 3rd film to ever top 70m in December.
It wasnt till 3 years later with Hobbit 1 that another film did the same and then the consensus finally shifted that bigger openings with ok legs were possible. We are used to it now, but back then, it was amazing and that aspect I think has only gotten forgotten due to the crazy legs and weekends that followed.
-
1
-
that was a fun set of posts last night when Charlie dropped the 19m+.
and I still personally over predicted with my 142, but stuck to my guns even when the data showed it obviously not getting there.
Weekdays Thread | April 10 - 13 | Thursday Numbers | 9.87M THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE | 1.04M JOHN WICK IV | 1.02M AIR | 0.96M D&D
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Another hour or two before official estimates. Its not even 7am on the coast yet.
Early access from our trackers is exception during the week.