narniadis
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Posts posted by narniadis
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The early access shows are the definition of previews. Would much rather have them, then the false previews that are now a Thursday release in barely a disguise.
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19 minutes ago, screambaby said:
I knkw this place is ripe with revisionist history but TFA fell off a cliff?
Ala Mario's off weekend #5 yes. Long term overall legs? Of course not. Overall TFA was a 4 week wonder and it never really recovered from that point and was pretty much done by weekends 8/9 (again, not abnormal for usual films either.) Gotta remember the 1Bil discussion was alive and well for the first three-ish weeks before the holiday inflation evaporated.
Its not revisionist history and as @MovieMan89 noted, we had discussed it in passing before (as an example he didn't like
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I'd love to be wrong about Gv3, but give me what Charlie is smoking. The performance of Mario this weekend should if nothing else, highlight just how much on some levels Fast and TLM will hurt before the June death march. 300m should be the goal. This whole thing is reminding me of Pirates 3, minus the bad wom.... it was dicey to get to 300m for a bit with that one and it opened way larger.
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7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:
Terrible for GotG under the context of what the first two did and how good WOM seems to be. Was this headed to sub 100 OW if the WOM hadn’t been there? Probably. If anyone needed true proof of MCU being hurt, this is definitely it. I think higher than 2.5-2.6x would be extremely hard given the nature of the movie and the calendar, but we’ll see.
Bad for Mario. Hope it gets a bit closer to -50% for actuals at least. Otherwise I’m worried about I2 for the first time. Still think 600 is more likely than not. I’ve never seen a movie breakout like this in its first month and then fall off a cliff, so there’s no reason to not think this isn’t a big anomaly in its run. Definitely expect course correcting the next two weekends.
**cough** The Force Awakens **cough**
It has happened before. I personally had hoped it would stay under 50% and over the 20m mark, but many of us have tried to warn you over the past month that this was coming. 🤷♂️
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$25m for Mario would be fantastic and right on the upper end of norm for the time of year.
Bummer on ED though, had hoped for a small/better increase over true Friday.
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1 hour ago, Starrow5722 said:
Is that a good number for week 3?
Yes.
Its not high enough for the uber speculative "Avatar's 3rd weekend" talk from Monday, but its a fantastic 3rd Friday for an animated film outside of summer and will definitely lead to somewhere in the 50-60 range depending on how high Saturday's increase goes.
I'd personally say it wont go higher than 52-55m (14m +60% Saturday and -30% Sunday on the low end) but its bested great expectations already in weekends 1 and 2 so it could be a great surprise this time as well.
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13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:
~ 14m.
Gonna be close to the +200% mark either direction.
Thanks for the update.
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If the 13.5 for Mario holds, it would speak to Jungle Book being a solid comp (if my memory serves right.) @M37 would know more since I think he is the one who has spoken of it.
That said, it's early so I expect it to go up a little at least.
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4.75 is just a fraction higher that the -30% I figured was the baseline. Full ticket prices, family draw, its not unusual behavior, if a tad on the higher side. The big question mark will be the Thursday (drop/flat/increase) and Friday combo since we know Saturday will be a substantial bump.
That said its still a crazy good number for a 1st week Wednesday in non summer, let alone 2nd (regular) Wednesday.
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2 hours ago, kayumanggi said:
Sorry, what happened to RETURN OF THE KING's re-release? Was it just a one weekend thing?
It was a 1 night event, not even a full weekend.
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1 hour ago, superduperm said:
No Tuesday estimates? 👀
Our trackers do have real lives too 🤣
That said, it may also have been good but not outlandish in either direction 🤷♂️
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I think we can conservatively hope for 7.5m today. Obviously the closer to 6m the better the hope.
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As always, thanks.
5m+ was my hope, should go up a pretty good bit tomorrow as well as it settles for a fantastic 3rd frame.
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@MovieMan89 there ya go
I am gladly wrong and taking the egg this time 😁😂
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1 hour ago, Austin said:
oh shoot, my bad. I'm somewhat new to BO stuff so i dont really know when updates roll in typically
No worries, just be aware that any updates for weekdays aren't usually gonna roll in until after 7pm est or later - if they come in at all.
As big as Mario is, I assume that Keyser or Charlie may drop something later but its never early.
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It will be ironic and oh so sweet in a sadistic frustrating way if @MovieMan89 misses the 90m mark by like fractions.... Mario decisively held way better than I anticipated on Tuesday and I gladly take the wrong on that (not like I expected that stupid 58m - still cant fathom what caused that stupidity.) Being wrong on an already great 75m expectation is amazing and one of the great things about box office surprises.
Would love to see it top the 600m mark as well, now to hold my breath (I'll take the under if I need to.)
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As I noted in the weekdays thread, I will gladly eat egg IF Mario hits 90m 😁😁🤣 much rather enjoy a positive overage than a terrible drop.
That Saturday # is just amazing. Would be in summer, and would have been amazing for opening weekend but for 2nd weekend its just *kiss* perfect.
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2 minutes ago, screambaby said:
Intrsesting checked indy 4 box office and it made almost 800 million world wide
So even wif people weren't in love with it I don't get
The automatic assertion 5 wil flop
Correct. Due to it being 2008 and getting lost in how big Iron Man and TDK were, people forget it was "large" just not as large as pre summer hopes. @baumer may remember, but that was the first summer game he ever did and I think there were several expectations of it doing 400m~ or so.
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@MovieMan89 not sure off the top but, BATBs women demographic may have helped the Sunday holds a tad. And coupled with it being in the March Spring break corridor, it could have been a 1-2 punch or just a random unexplainable blip. The weekend thread from back then may shed some light.
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Solid Wednesday for Mario. Even being a bigger performance, there are elements that cant be avoided such as the Wednesday drop.
@keysersoze123 bravo hitting it on the head quite well last night.
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53 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:
If I have to guess it should have done 10.5-11 range but this difficult. I could be off for sure.
In other words, it appears to be a normal movie now that the early pent up holiday is past. Should lead to a good Friday/Saturday then.
Appreciate the insight.
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Its always movies like Mario that make me smile with comments. I've been around nearly 20 years back when Mojo was still legit. The questions that come in from newer followers, especially in the post covid world give me joy and remind me that we were all learning at one point. Hopefully box office as a whole keeps up enough for discussion and hobby enjoyment for years to come.
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9 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:
Right now, I am on board the 7th biggest 2nd weekend of all time train until proven otherwise.
Lets aim for under 50% and over 75m before jumping the crazy train 😂😂
Its not hitting 90m+
And I will gladly eat my crow if it does, but not even BOP is willing to go that far, and they are already bullish.
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9 minutes ago, superduperm said:
Okay that would be the first legitimately bad number…
Yes / no Again, when you look at historical comps that would be at the higher end, but not the worst. Would be better to be fine with 10.5-11 than higher and be disappointed.
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Weekend Thread | May 12 - 14 | Weekend Actuals | 62.01M GOTG III | 12.61M MARIO | 6.68M BOOK CLUB: THE NEXT CHAPTER
in Numbers and Data
Posted
NOT griping at the number, but the shift in tone the last couple of hours, harkens back to Monday / Tuesday when there was some warning about lower Friday due to the weekdays making up the difference somewhat. All the unneeded hoopla about under 50% drop is going to make this seem "disappointing" in true BOT fashion 🤣 (it won't be by any stretch, just cracks me up.)