narniadis
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Posts posted by narniadis
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2 minutes ago, baumer said:
I'm one of the biggest supporters of sound of freedom and yet even I think that you might be a bit too optimistic with it. This magical run that it's on is going to taper off one of these days. And by taper off I mean it might actually start behaving somewhat normally. If it doesn't take over Daily's by Wednesday it's not going to this week. It's going to be fun watching it for the rest of the summer but this week just because it's only a million behind right now I don't think that's going to give it enough to pass mission Impossible on the weekdays.
Kind of reminds me of American Sniper - another big one from the conservative crowd that after (wide) weekend 3 just fell off. Those discussions of legs post weekend 1 and 2 never did pan out when 400m+ seemed all but a given.
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2 minutes ago, atleekumar said:
movie also had less action scenes compared to fallout one of the reasons why its underperforming in china and other asian countries
Other Asian markets not withstanding, the drop in China has nothing to do with the action, but it being a US film - same as all other Box Office for the few films releasing there.
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Like to me, the Monday number is the first truly disappointing number. The rest have all been within my expectations (if a fraction low), but I firmly expected ~6.5m or so if not a tad higher. Just based on past behavior for the franchise and the demographics and type of film.
Makes me uber curious what today does then.
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That is a bonkers bad fall for MI7 unless I'm missing something. Sheesh. I get runtime issues and it being a workday but its summer -65% is rough.
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4 minutes ago, LegionGPT said:
I expect it’ll easily clear 4x OWeek maybe 5x
Really think it has the juice to get to 200m?
160m+ I could see and would be on the train for, just not sure it can make it to that uber upper level (as if making it to 160m wouldn't already be a crazy total.)
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8 minutes ago, M37 said:
To be fair, had a holiday-ish Monday opening and had already banked more than a full X before OW
Opening Week (Mon-Sun) was $41M, should probably get 3x from that
Yeah, the weird release date issues is what can make some film comparisons headache inducing. Similar to how The Spidermans aren't all Friday releases and you cant truly compare OW to OW.
Thats what I appreciate about the Opening Week aspect since its still 7 days and it encompasses the whole aspect.
Getting 3x from full OW is really good to crazy on it's own terms though in this day and age.
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11 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:
too good , and higher than Fallout ,Paramount is messing with the numbers
I mean if EmC thinks its going 21m thats not a Paramount playing thing unless you mean just the broadly haphazard release mess they created. As a massive adults skewing flick +50% (from the 14.5m Friday) or so would be in line, on the upper end (I think) but not totally out of line.
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23 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:
wtf, is nobody actually reading what I am saying or did I accidentally say that Amsterdam and Babylon were huge, massive hits?
I know they are bombs! I just think that specifically blaming her for their failures, because she is poison, seems kinda shitty.
@Deep Wang its BOT, BOT is gonna BOT when they get on a drive about something.
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also, @Cap and other mods, is there a setting for ignored users that I have missed when it comes to their quotes? Been long enough that I have forgotten but my "purging" this week only works so far 😄
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@MovieMan89 broken clocks are right twice a day - Just kidding. Kudos to you for both Barbie and SMB. I would also have been on the negative side for Barbie (don't think I ever made a post since I had no cares about it), but am excited to see what she does next weekend and in total. We need the positives to make up for the disappointments.
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Here in East Texas there is definitely a deflation of MI7 by SOF... my usual circle of people is over the age of 50 and I have had several that talked about MI7 that have instead seen SOF - and I had clients this week asking if I had seen it. So echoing Deadline's reporting - it is making a dent in the flyover portion. City theaters may not be full, but apparently the one playing it near me in the rural zones has been near legit selling out in the evenings. 🥴
It's just funny to me since most people in my world are ones the average board poster would say is crazy conservative and there is a definitive split in the age demos and whether or not SOF is being positively talked about. The under 50 set is not in favor and the over 50s are acting like the film is the 2nd coming of Christ.
***All that said*** 7.5m for Friday is nuts - it reminds me of Greatest Showman as far as film just popping off out of nowhere with legs and wom.
Overall the weekend seems to be solid - even with MI7's apparent miss.
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Provided the number holds, where are those who didn't think DR could pull 70%+ Today 😁😂. At least a small glimmer of hope in the mess of the threads this week.
@baumer without looking, is Deadline talking about SOF Friday over Friday for the +15% ? Would make sense since all their other comps are Friday to Friday.
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That note about #1s in 2009 is a reminder of just now ridiculously great that year was for the box office. Meh winter 2008 holdovers led to a massive back to back smashes in January and it never stopped. Some #1s under performed (thinking of Wolverine and Angels & Demons in the summer) but it was just a solid year with great choices for all audiences. Imo 2009 was the last truly balanced year before the Superhero craze totally changed the landscape.
Shame we no longer have access to the BOM forum threads from that year. @baumer if I recall the summer game that year was wild due to have well the box office flipped expectations.
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2.15 is a nice number all things considered. Hopefully it translates into a solid (for the genre now) weekend.
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Family member told me TF is the first movie in a theater since Covid... and it wasn't tied to anything else or a remake.... so there is a personal anecdote that echos discussion around here.
*and no, politics and woke have nothing to do with this person lol.
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@MovieMan89 I mentioned it a bit yesterday, but I think the male / female split is more impactful than the racial demographics. That 60%+ for both Mario and FastX was flipped with Mermaid and lets face it the male demographic is still the largest paying demo for theaters (across all races). That 68-32 split is a significant amount of $$ left on the table. Racism and altright issues aside.
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2 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:
The wom is good, but I dont get the impression its the type of WOM that could convince the boy/male crowd to come
I agree. I also have the unfortunate Texas / south "ban everything Disney" side speaking into my referral mix so I know I can't count on it around here.
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@Noctis the Demo split for TLM isnt a surprise. Matter of fact the "weak" Saturday speaks to the problem of a major paying demographic not being in play ala other past women heavy films. Its not much of a surprise, just to those here on the board that missed how skewed it would be.
Factor in the racial demographics and it only increases the split. Hopefully the wom brings more of the boy / male crowd in long term.
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14 minutes ago, Noctis said:
What was the split?
68/32
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Side note to the demographic discussion, but that demo skew female / male means a lot of the prime movie going audience wasnt attending. Racism or not, thats a significant missed demo regardless of race.
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41 minutes ago, Flamengo81 said:
Just watched the movie and I am now more excited to see it succeed. Easily one of the best superhero movies ever, the best MCU movie in ages, a perfect finale to Guardians and IMO the perfect finale to the MCU. I am still going to watch the movies, but the MCU that I grew up with and I really care about ended today just perfectly. I feel satisfied, from now on it will not be the same thing.
Yes. Perfect is a great way to sum it. Told my wife that as far as tying things up post endgame, this was a much better option (in original release plans) than the 2021 bit with Spidey, and that was a fine film on its own.
Guardians 3 just really highlights how much the MCU has struggled to have a cohesive identity post Endgame.
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Solid Friday all around it seems - minus the bombs of new releases. Makes for good discussions and better totals.
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8 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:
Shawn expected $5M OW some weeks back...
Its release changed too though if I remember right? Wasnt it originally scheduled to go wide? Thats a major difference when its in under 600 theaters. Still a bomb, but its understandable.
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51 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:
its going to have the best hold of any MCU sequel in a long time. Of course the start last week was slightly soft but dont forget MCU has a mature fanbase who want to watch it early to avoid spoiler. So the drop so soft is impressive considering Wakanda had normal hold and even Civil War back in 2016 had ok hold.
Oh definitely not complaining, and having watched it tonight with my wife (only one in theaters besides WF since Shang-Chi), I can totally understand and agree with the positive wom.
Just finding the irony a bit in BOT being BOT. After all these years, its still part of what I love about this place. I really do hope it hits 60m.
And as always, thanks to those of you who keep us informed. I remember the good ol' days when we had to wait for mid-Saturday morning for reports to start coming in (if not later in the day.)
Weekday Numbers | Jul 17 - 20 | Wednesday | 4.74M M:I - DEAD RECKONING I | 4.72M SOUND OF FREEDOM
in Numbers and Data
Posted
I remember when I used to think not making it to a movie I wanted to see in the theater meant I wasnt interested. Then real life happened. Its hard enough to find time to watch a full movie at home during the week when one is shuffling all of life and kids and living.
My wife and I have been trying to watch the MI series since she hasn't seen and we have been hung up on the time just on 5 and 6. By the time our kids are down and we can even think about it, its too late with work the next day. Let alone finding time to go to the theater - which for us would be a 5-6hr total time frame and a babysitter.
Its not all cut and dried as the young pups seem to think in this thread.