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The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Alex SciChannel replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
B+ cinemascore? -
Is it just me, or is the box office tracking for this movie setting up to be a disappointment financially? Godzilla kotm had a 170M budget and was considered a disappointment with a 48M domestic opening. With Kingdom looking to open to something similar with a 160-165M budget, I'm surprised more aren't worried about it making a return on investment.
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I'm with you. I've been team Kotm since it first came out. I remember going into a depressive state while I was following its box office to the point of being physically ill. For a character that such a large impact on my life, childhood and now, the fact it didn't resonate with people at the box office broke my heart. But I realize, I have my own logically sound reasons to love the movie and no one can take that away. I personally don't get the complaint of obscured visuals when it's more clear than 2014 due to the color grading and compositing. I think the cinematography of the film was beautiful and made the monster scenes easy to follow. And even the commentary, for how surface level people may think it was, I believe was executed well. It's a shame future Monsterverse movies and shows are now retroactively ignoring Kotm probably because of its financial standing.
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I'm a bit more conservative on my domestic prediction (165-190M) it could do more or less depending on word of mouth but 4 weeks of IMAX & PLF exclusivity is bound to help its legs in April. I'm actually mostly optimistic for its international gross. I think it's a very realistic prospect that this movie does over 400M overseas seeing how it has Chinese and Japan markets to help it. As well as the 3rd act taking place in Rio De Janero in Brazil so that appeal might boost it in Latin markets. The main question is Europe and South Korea. Will they get on board? Worldwide I have full faith its gonna make over 500M seeing how even amidst a giant pandemic GvK managed to get close to that. Without the pandemic and similar amounts of hype as before I believe GvK would've done 800M-1B worldwide. I don't think GxK is making nearly that much, but in the worst case scenario I don't see it going below 450M worldwide, my normal case scenario is that it's making 500-550M. And good scenario it makes 550-650M and best case is anything above 700M which is doubtful. Right now I my goal is over 600M but I'd be happy with anything in the 500M range worldwide.
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This is not a 3 month marketing cycle. The first piece of marketing came out in early December while the release date is the 3rd to last day of March. That's still closer to 4 months than 3. Also blitz marketing campaigns have become standard now and are proven to work. It's not a garuntee but it is a far cry from being a sign of failure
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Test screenings have not been terrible. I don't know where you're getting this from. They're actually very positive according to ViewerAnon save for one new monster that had poor reception and was replaced. I'll tell you why this move makes sense. Because now Godzilla x Kong has 4 whole weeks of PLF screens all to itself before Civil War comes out. Compare that with before, it only had 2 weeks. This movie is extremely reliant on PLF and IMAX revenue for its success. So even with mixed word of mouth some just won't be able to resist for a whole month of giant monsters fighting on the biggest screen possible
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THE SUPER MARIO BROS MOVIE WEEKEND THREAD
Alex SciChannel replied to Eric Dylan's topic in Numbers and Data
It was one hell of a weekend. For a young JP fan it was dreams coming true. I had lived my whole life without a single new Jurassic Park movie (born in 2003). I watched the originals on VHS and on DVD as a youngin and just hearing from others online of this bygone era of Jurassic Park that seemed to be at rest now. But then whispers of a fourth movie started floating around and some leaked test footage of an Azhdarchid on a beach got some first levels hype. Then the first trailer came out and it was magic. My generation finally had their era of Jurassic. Their own era of dinosaur hype in popular media. I would talk nonstop about it with this other kid named Cole. God bless him, I wonder where he is now. We shared a great love for movies and I happened to see him at the same Thursday night screening I went to, along with other classmates. Pure cinematic magic.