[2017 & Beyond Discussion Thread | Is 2017 (Summer) Bigger than 2016?]

36 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

what about Cars 3, Pirates 5, and the next Kingsman film, under 120 M material or left out ? and also Blade Runner 2, unsure if that is still coming out next year though.

Blade Runner 2 and Kingsman 2 under $130 million DOM.

 

Cars 3.. I could see Good Dinosaur #s if it's just as bad, if not worse, than Cars 2. It's near locked for a decline, regardless. I'd rather have seen Newt or another project in this release date. 

 

Pirates 5 will do $140-150 million DOM and then make $600-800 million OS ?

 

So only one of those four will make my top 20 most likely. 

[2017 & Beyond Discussion Thread | Is 2017 (Summer) Bigger than 2016?]

1 hour ago, Kalo said:

 

I generally agree with most of your list but, you think Wonder Woman will gross less than $120m?

Whoops! 

 

Wonder Woman - $185 million

 

Just move PP3 to #21 and that's my top 20 for 2017 right now

[2017 & Beyond Discussion Thread | Is 2017 (Summer) Bigger than 2016?]

I don't see 2017 being that much noticeable bigger than 2016. It looks better from a quality perspective, though. 

 

1. Star Wars Episode VIII: $720 million 
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $430 million 
3. Beauty and the Beast: $355 million 
4. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $320 million 
5. Despicable Me 3: $305 million 
6. Justice League Part One: $290 million 
7. Fast 8: $280 million 
8. Dr. Seuss' How the Grinch Stole Christmas: $270 million 
9. Coco: $255 million 
10. Thor - Ragnorak: $245 million 
11. War of the Planet of the Apes: $230 million
12. Wonder Woman: $205 million 
13. Transformers 5: $190 million
14. Kong - Skull Island: $175 million 
15. Dunkirk: $170 million 
16. Wolverine 3: $165 million 
17. Pirates 5: $160 million 
18. Alien - Covenant: $150 million 
19. Ninjago: $145 million
20. The Croods 2: $140 million
21. The Mummy: $135 million
22. World War Z 2: $130 million 
23. ??? Sleeper/Breakout: $125 million
24. Pitch Perfect 3: $120 million
25. Cars 3: $115 million
26. Kingsman 2: $110 million
27. The House: $110 million
28. Jumanji/Disney LA Fairy Tale: $105 million 
29. The Story of Ferdinand: $100 million 
30. Blade Runner 2: $100 million 

 

 

[Weekend Estimates (Page 13): Jungle Book 42.4M | Keanu and Huntsman 9.4M | Mother's Day 8.3M | Barbershop 6.1M | Ratchet 4.8M | CIVIL WAR OS OW 200.2M!!!! (Page 14)]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

This year really does need to start producing some mid-range hits, though. The only $100M+ grosser that won't reach $300M is Kung Fu Panda 3, while the only movies to miss $100M but make $70M+ are Ride Along 2 and 10 Cloverfield Lane, and the only non-brand, non-sequel movies to make $50M+ are Miracles from Heaven and The Boss. To create a more stable box office environment, there needs to be more titles that land in the "in between" zone.

 

 

I think Jan-Apr 2016 lacked mid-level hits simply because most everything offered had minimal appeal. 

 

January was filled with duds sans Ride Along 2 and KFP3. The Revenant also counts as a 2015 release despite making nearly all of its money in 2016 (same as American Sniper). 

 

February was barren aside from Deadpool. 

 

March performed to expectations because Zootopia and BvS did well, but could anyone expect Miracles From Heaven, MBFGW2, 10 Cloverfield Lane, London Has Fallen or Allegiant to carry a month? And Miracles, MBFGW2 and 10 Cloverfield Lane all made a tidy profit due to how low-budget they were. Allegiant was awful, and London was a sequel no one was particularly excited about. 

 

April is similar to February, where only one film excited anyone. A terrible McCarthy comedy doing $60 million+ DOM is impressive considering how April is perceived. Huntsman 2 would have bombed anywhere, even in September or October. Barbershop 3 performed to expectations. 

 

But Summer 2016 is different. May has 5 "exciting" releases, June has 5 "exciting" releases, July has  5-8 "exciting" releases (depending on Mike & Dave, BFG and IA5) while August has less but still 4 "exciting" releases. Out of these, I'd say at least 7-8 should do $100-199 million DOM. Some will do more, some less.

 

I don't see only 1-2 films making $100-199 million this summer. We might get 3 just in May (Neighbors 2, Angry Birds and Alice 2). And another 2-3 for June and July, with 1-2 for August even. 

 

[Weekend Prediction thread 7/4-7/7 Independence Day weekend Play the Derby]

2 hours ago, leatherjacket said:

Captain America: 225M

The Jungle Book: 28M

Keanu: 4.9M

The Huntsman: 4.5M

Zootopia: 4.2M

Mother's Day: 3.9M

Barbershop: 3.2M

The Boss: 2.7M

Ratchet and Clank: 2.5M

BvS: 1.4M

 

That would be excellent for Disney!

 

Sub-20% drop for Zootopia, Sub-40% drop for JB, and a $225 million OW for Captain America 3. 

 

Then Disney's top 3 for 2016 could hypothetically be 

1. Captain America - Civil War: $650-670 million (can't imagine its WOM being much worse than Avengers 1 or JW) 
2. The Jungle Book: $350-360 million 
3. Zootopia: $335-340 million 

Realistically, I'd say $550-570 million would be where CA3 ends up. Smaller OW than Avengers 2, but far stronger legs (a 3x-3.2x is possible) 

 

 

 

[Weekend Estimates (Page 13): Jungle Book 42.4M | Keanu and Huntsman 9.4M | Mother's Day 8.3M | Barbershop 6.1M | Ratchet 4.8M | CIVIL WAR OS OW 200.2M!!!! (Page 14)]

3 hours ago, picores said:

350m looking good for JB as long as Civil War does not kill it.

 

Jungle Book over Zootopia should happen.

 

If it drops 50-55% next weekend, $330-335 million is more likely

 

If it drops 40-45% next weekend, I could see $350-355 million.

 

Either way, the top 6 for Jan-Jun 2016 should have all $300 million+ DOM grossers (7 if ID42 surprises big-time). 

[Weekend Prediction thread 7/4-7/7 Independence Day weekend Play the Derby]

5/6-5/8

1. Captain America - Civil War: $197 million 
2. The Jungle Book: $20 million ($285 million) 
3. Mother's Day: $6 million ($17 million)
4. Keanu: $4 million ($15 million) 
5. The Huntsman Winter's War: $3 million ($38 million) 
6. Ratchet and Clank: $3 million ($9 million) 
7. Zootopia: $2.5 million ($326 million)
8. Barbershop 3: $2.25 million ($47 million) 
9. The Boss: $2 million ($58 million)
10. Batman vs. Superman: $1.25 million ($326 million)

5/13-5/15

1. Captain America - Civil War: $96 million ($340 million) 
2. The Jungle Book: $15 million ($306 million)
3. Money Monster: $10 million 
4. The Darkness: $6 million 
5. Mother's Day: $4 million ($23 million)
6. Keanu: $3 million ($20 million)
7. The Huntsman Winter's War: $2 million ($41 million) 
8. Ratchet and Clank: $2 million ($11 million) 
9. Zootopia: $2 million ($328 million)
10. Barbershop 3: $1.5 million ($49 million) 

5/20-5/22

1. Captain America - Civil War: $53.5 million ($419 million) 
2. Neighbors 2 - Sorority Rising: $51 million 
3. The Angry Birds Movie: $43.5 million 
4. The Nice Guys: $11 million 
5. The Jungle Book: $7 million ($315 million) 
6. Money Monster: $5.5 million ($18 million) 
7. Mother's Day: $3 million ($27 million) 
8. The Darkness: $2.5 million ($10 million) 
9. Keanu: $1.5 million ($22 million) 
10. The Huntsman Winter's War: $1 million ($42 million) 

5/27-5/29

1. X-Men: Apocalypse: $104.5 million/$130 million 
2. Alice Through the Looking Glass: $42 million/$53 million 
3. Captain America - Civil War: $30 million/$37 million ($470 million) 
4. The Angry Birds Movie: $27.5 million/$33.5 million ($84 million) 
5. Neighbors 2 - Sorority Rising: $25 million/$29.5 million ($96 million) 
6. The Nice Guys: $7 million/$8.5 million ($23 million)
7. The Jungle Book: $4 million/$5 million ($321 million)
8. Money Monster: $3.5 million/$4.25 million ($24 million)
9. Mother's Day: $2 million/$2.5 million ($30 million)
10. The Darkness: $1.5 million/$1.75 million ($12 million)

6/3-6/5

1. TMNT 2: $43 million 
2. X-Men - Apocalypse: $41 million ($191 million) 
3. Alice Through the Looking Glass: $19 million ($78 million) 
4. Captain America - Civil War: $17 million ($495 million) 
5. The Angry Birds Movie: $16 million ($105 million) 
6. Neighbors 2 - Sorority Rising: $10 million ($110 million) 
7. Me Before You: $7.5 million 
8. Popstar - Never Stop Never Stopping: $7 million 
9. The Nice Guys: $3.5 million ($28 million) 
10. The Jungle Book: $2.5 million ($324 million) 

6/10-6/12

1. The Conjuring 2: $46 million 
2. Warcraft: $28 million 
3. X-Men - Apocalypse: $19 million ($224 million) 
4. TMNT 2: $18 million ($74 million) 
5. Now You See Me 2: $14 million 
6. Alice Through the Looking Glass: $10 million ($94 million) 
7. The Angry Birds Movie: $9 million ($118 million) 
8. Captain America - Civil War: $8 million ($508 million) 
9. Neighbors 2 - Sorority Rising: $5.5 million ($120 million) 
10. Me Before You: $4 million ($14 million) 

6/17-6/19

1. Finding Dory: $132 million 
2. Central Intelligence: $47.5 million 
3. The Conjuring 2: $22 million ($82 million) 
4. Warcraft: $11 million ($48 million) 
5. X-Men - Apocalypse: $9 million ($239 million)
6. TMNT 2: $8 million ($88 million) 
7. Now You See Me 2: $6 million ($24 million) 
8. Alice Through the Looking Glass: $4.5 million ($102 million) 
9. Captain America - Civil War: $4 million ($515 million) 
10. Neighbors 2 - Sorority Rising: $3.5 million ($126 million) 

6/24-6/26

1. Independence Day - Resurgence: $86 million 
2. Finding Dory: $76.5 million ($261 million) 
3. Central Intelligence: $26 million ($95 million) 
4. The Conjuring 2: $12 million ($103 million) 
5. Free State of Jones: $4.5 million 
6. Warcraft: $4 million ($56 million) 
7. TMNT 2: $4 million ($96 million) 
8. X-Men - Apocalypse: $3.5 million ($246 million) 
9. Now You See Me 2: $3.5 million ($31 million) 
10. Neighbors 2 - Sorority Rising: $2.5 million ($131 million) 

7/1-7/4

1. Finding Dory: $42 million/$54 million ($353 million) 
2. Independence Day - Resurgence: $38 million/$49 million ($170 million) 
3. The BFG: $33 million/$42 million 
4. Central Intelligence: $17.5 million/$21.5 million ($130 million) 
5. The Purge - Election Year: $15 million/$18 million 
6. The Legend of Tarzan: $11 million/$13 million 
7. The Shallows: $8 million/$9.5 million 
8. The Conjuring 2: $4.5 million/$5.25 million ($112 million) 
9. Free State of Jones: $3 million/$3.5 million ($11 million) 
10. TMNT 2: $2.5 million/$3.5 million ($102 million) 

7/8-7/10

1. The Secret Lives of Pets: $77 million 
2. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates: $23 million 
3. Finding Dory: $21 million ($386 million) 
4. Independence Day - Resurgence: $17 million ($198 million) 
5. The BFG: $16 million ($67 million) 
6. Central Intelligence: $8.5 million ($143 million) 
7. The Purge - Election Year: $7 million ($29 million) 
8. The Legend of Tarzan: $6 million ($22 million)
9. The Shallows: $3 million ($14 million) 
10. The Conjuring 2: $2.5 million ($116 million) 

7/15-7/17

1. The Secret Lives of Pets: $46 million ($166 million) 
2. Ghostbusters: $37 million 
3. Finding Dory: $15 million ($414 million) 
4. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates: $14 million ($49 million) 
5. The BFG: $10 million ($85 million) 
6. Independence Day - Resurgence: $9 million ($215 million) 
7. Central Intelligence: $5 million ($152 million)
8. The Infiltrator: $4 million 
9. The Legend of Tarzan: $3.5 million ($29 million) 
10. The Purge - Election Year: $3 million ($35 million) 

7/22-7/24

1. Star Trek Beyond: $63 million 
2. Ice Age 5: $32 million 
3. The Secret Lives of Pets: $22 million ($208 million) 
4. Ghostbusters: $20 million ($75 million) 
5. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates: $9 million ($66 million) 
6. Finding Dory: $8 million ($429 million)
7. Lights Out: $6 million 
8. The BFG: $5 million ($94 million) 
9. Independence Day - Resurgence: $3.5 million ($222 million) 
10. Central Intelligence: $3 million ($158 million) 

7/29-7/31

1. Jason Bourne: $60.5 million 
2. Star Trek Beyond: $30 million ($121 million) 
3. Ice Age 5: $17 million ($64 million) 
4. The Secret Lives of Pets: $14.5 million ($235 million) 
5. Ghostbusters: $12 million ($97 million) 
6. Bad Moms: $9 million 
7. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates: $6 million ($77 million) 
8. Finding Dory: $5 million ($438 million)
9. The BFG: $4 million ($101 million) 
10. Lights Out: $2.5 million ($11 million) 

8/5-8/7

1. Suicide Squad: $107 million 
2. Jason Bourne: $29.5 million ($118 million) 
3. The Founder: $22 million 
4. Star Trek Beyond: $14 million ($148 million) 
5. The Secret Lives of Pets: $9.5 million ($251 million) 
6. Ice Age 5: $9 million ($79 million) 
7. Ghostbusters: $7.5 million ($110 million) 
8. Bad Moms: $5 million ($18 million) 
9. Nine Lives: $4 million
10. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates: $4 million ($84 million)  

8/12-8/14

1. Suicide Squad: $46.5 million ($188 million) 
2. Sausage Party: $31 million 
3. Pete's Dragon: $23.5 million 
4. The Founder: $16 million ($50 million) 
5. Jason Bourne: $15 million ($144 million) 
6. Star Trek Beyond: $8 million ($161 million) 
7. Spectral: $6 million 
8. The Secret Lives of Pets: $5 million ($258 million) 
9. Ice Age 5: $4.5 million ($85 million) 
10. Florence Foster Jenkins: $4 million 

[Passengers | Chris Pratt, Jennifer Lawrence | Dec 21, 2016 | Trailer pg 70]

50 minutes ago, Treetrunk Special said:

Against Star Wars which is direct competition?

Star Wars=kid-friendly space adventure

 

Passengers=adult-skewing sci-film romance 

 

They're not direct competitors due to their different subgenres

 

Sing is more direct comp for Rogue One than Passengers

[Weekend Prediction thread 7/4-7/7 Independence Day weekend Play the Derby]

4/29-5/1

1. The Jungle Book: $43.5 million ($249 million) 
2. The Huntsman Winter's War: $11 million ($37 million) 
3. Keanu: $10 million 
4. Mother's Day: $7 million
5. Zootopia: $5.5 million ($323 million) 
6. Barbershop 3: $4.5 million ($43 million) 
7. Ratchet and Clank: $4 million 
8. The Boss: $3.5 million ($54 million) 
9. Batman vs. Superman: $3.5 million ($324 million) 
10. Criminal: $2 million ($14 million) 

[Official Weekend Estimates (Page 30): The Jungle Book - 60.8M (96M OS) | The Huntsman: Winter's War - 20.1M | Barbershop 3 - 10.8M | Zootopia - 6.6M | BvS - 5.5M]

41 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Predictions for next weekend:

 

The Jungle Book: 36.5M

Keanu: 17M

Mothers Day: 9M

The Huntsman: 8.4M

Barbershop: 5.8M

Zootopia: 5M

Green Room: 4.4M

Ratchet and Clank: 4M

The Boss: 3.5M

Batman v Superman: 2.9M

Criminal: 1.8M

Everybody Wants Some: 1.5M

 

Depending how big Green Room and EWS expand, BVS might not even be in the Top 10.

That drop for Jungle Book seems way too large. Zero competition, great WOM and everyone's last chance to catch it before Civil War lights up the box office.

 

$40-45 million is more likely since it'll drop 45-55% against CW. I don't see a near 50% drop next weekend. 

[Official Weekend Estimates (Page 30): The Jungle Book - 60.8M (96M OS) | The Huntsman: Winter's War - 20.1M | Barbershop 3 - 10.8M | Zootopia - 6.6M | BvS - 5.5M]

2 hours ago, PenguinHyphy said:

 

The majority of those totals are not going to happen, but after seeing the trailer for The Girl on the Train, it surely is not going to gross anywhere near that much. 

 

Why so? I can see Girl on the Train, but why the rest? 

 

Most of them except Passengers have some valid reasoning as to why they'd gross that amount I predicted. I can see how some of those might not happen, but they're certainly not guaranteed to fail (in terms of meeting my expectations) 

[Official Weekend Estimates (Page 30): The Jungle Book - 60.8M (96M OS) | The Huntsman: Winter's War - 20.1M | Barbershop 3 - 10.8M | Zootopia - 6.6M | BvS - 5.5M]

2 hours ago, kitik said:

 

 

Forget 225. What's the record for most $300M movies in a year?

 

Nevermind, just looked it up, the record used to be 5 movies in 2012, but then 2015 just broke it with 6 last year.

 

What do you guys think? I say 2016 could shatter the old record. I want to see 10 movies hit $300M this year!

 

Who's with me? 10th place movie over $300M this year?

 

My prediction for top 25 DOM

1. Finding Dory: $550 million 
2. Captain America - Civil War: $520 million 
3. Rogue One: $475 million
4. Deadpool: $360 million 
5. Moana: $345 million 
6. The Jungle Book: $340 million 
7. Zootopia: $335 million 
8. Batman vs. Superman: $330 million 
9. Suicide Squad: $310 million 
10. The Secret Lives of Pets: $285 million 
11. X-Men - Apocalypse: $260 million 
12. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them: $245 million 
13. Passengers: $215 million 
14. Jason Bourne: $210 million 
15. Independence Day - Resurgence: $205 million 
16. Central Intelligence: $185 million 
17. Sing: $175 million 
18. Star Trek Beyond: $165 million 
19. Doctor Strange: $155 million 
20. Storks: $150 million 
21. Alice Through the Looking Glass: $145 million 
22. The Magnificent Seven: $140 million 
23. Kung Fu Panda 3: $140 million 
24. The Girl on the Train: $135 million
25. Neighbors 2: $130 million 

Could be a record for $350 million+ DOM (if Moana and JB manage to get there), $300 million+ DOM (if JB, Civil War, Dory and Rogue One do it, the record is broken), $250 million+ DOM, $200 million+ DOM and $100 million+ DOM. 

 

2016 is looking solid. 

[Weekend Prediction thread 7/4-7/7 Independence Day weekend Play the Derby]

4/29-5/1

1. The Jungle Book: $50 million ($263 million)
2. Keanu: $17 million 
3. Mother's Day: $8.5 million 
4. The Huntsman Winter's War: $8 million ($32 million) 
5. Zootopia: $5.5 million ($323 million) 
6. Ratchet and Clank: $5 million 
7. The Boss: $4 million ($55 million) 
8. Barbershop 3: $3.5 million ($40 million)
9. Batman vs. Superman: $3.5 million ($324 million)
10. Criminal: $2 million ($14 million)

5/6-5/8

1. Captain America - Civil War: $196 million 
2. The Jungle Book: $23 million ($294 million) 
3. Mother's Day: $7 million ($19 million) 
4. Keanu: $6 million ($26 million) 
5. Zootopia: $3 million ($327 million) 
6. The Huntsman Winter's War: $2.5 million ($36 million) 
7. Ratchet and Clank: $2.5 million ($9 million)
8. The Boss: $2 million ($58 million) 
9. Barbershop 3: $1.5 million ($42 million) 
10. Batman vs. Superman: $1 million ($325 million) 

5/13-5/15

1. Captain America - Civil War: $87 million ($325 million) 
2. The Jungle Book: $17.5 million ($317 million)
3. Money Monster: $11 million 
4. The Darkness: $7.5 million 
5. Mother's Day: $4.5 million ($26 million) 
6. Keanu: $4 million ($32 million) 
7. Zootopia: $2 million ($329 million) 
8. Ratchet and Clank: $2 million ($11 million) 
9. The Huntsman Winter's War: $1.5 million ($39 million) 
10. The Boss: $1.5 million ($60 million) 

5/20-5/22

1. Captain America - Civil War: $52 million ($402 million) 
2. Neighbors 2 - Sorority Rising: $50.5 million 
3. The Angry Birds Movie: $42 million 
4. The Nice Guys: $12 million 
5. The Jungle Book: $8 million ($328 million) 
6. Money Monster: $6 million ($20 million) 
7. The Darkness: $3.5 million ($13 million) 
8. Mother's Day: $3 million ($30 million) 
9. Keanu: $2 million ($35 million) 
10. Zootopia: $1 million ($330 million) 

5/27-5/29

1. X-Men - Apocalypse: $104.5 million/$130 million 
2. Alice Through the Looking Glass: $55 million/$71 million 
3. Captain America - Civil War: $31 million/$38 million ($455 million) 
4. The Angry Birds Movie: $25.5 million/$31 million ($79 million) 
5. Neighbors 2 - Sorority Rising: $24 million/$29 million ($91 million)
6. The Nice Guys: $8 million/$9.5 million ($25 million) 
7. Money Monster: $4 million/$4.75 million ($27 million) 
8. The Jungle Book: $3.5 million/$4.5 million ($333 million)
9. Mother's Day: $2 million/$2.5 million ($33 million) 
10. Keanu: $1.25 million/$1.5 million ($37 million) 

 

[Official Weekend Estimates (Page 30): The Jungle Book - 60.8M (96M OS) | The Huntsman: Winter's War - 20.1M | Barbershop 3 - 10.8M | Zootopia - 6.6M | BvS - 5.5M]

Top 4 DOM for Jan-Apr is looking strong...

1. Deadpool: $360 million
2. Zootopia: $340 million 
3. The Jungle Book: $335 million 
4. Batman vs. Superman: $330 million 

Add in Civil War, X-Men, Dory, ID42, Pets, and SS - 2016's top 10 could feasibly be made up of all $225 million+ DOM grossers. With Doctor Strange, Fantastic Beasts, Moana ,Rogue One and Sing remaining for late 2016. 

[2016 100M Films - 30 down, 6 to go! (Passengers Played The Long Game)]

1. Captain America: Civil War - $520 million 
2. Finding Dory: $475 million 
3. Rogue One: $430 million 
4. Deadpool: $365 million 
5. Moana: $340 million 
6. Zootopia: $335 million 
7. Batman vs. Superman: $330 million 
8. The Jungle Book: $325 million 
9. The Secret Lives of Pets: $285 million 
10. X-Men - Apocalypse: $260 million 
11. Suicide Squad: $245 million 
12. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them: $235 million 
13. Independence Day - Resurgence: $225 million 
14. Passengers: $185 million 
15. Star Trek Beyond: $175 million 
16. Sing: $170 million 
17. Alice Through the Looking Glass: $165 million 
18. Doctor Strange: $155 million 
19. Central Intelligence: $150 million 
20. The Magnificent Seven: $145 million 
21. Kung Fu Panda 3: $140 million 
22. Storks: $140 million 
23. Sausage Party: $135 million 
24. Neighbors 2 - $130 million 
25. TMNT 2 - $125 million 
26. The Girl on the Train: $120 million 
27. Ghostbusters: $115 million 
28. The Founder: $110 million 
29. La La Land: $110 million 
30. Patriots Day: $110 million 
31. The Conjuring 2 - $105 million 
32. Pete's Dragon - $105 million 
33. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk - $105 million 
34. The Angry Birds Movie: $100 million 
35. The BFG: $100 million 
36. Sully/Silence/Birth of a Nation: $100 million 

 

I think this club could happen. 

[Weekend Thread | The Jungle Book - Early Weekend Estimates 101m - 103m (DHD - Page 59) (Fri 32m, Sat 41.5m-42m) | RTH Saturday Early Est = 40-44M (Page 46) | Barbershop TNC - Est 20.4m (DHD) | Boss -59% | Hardcore Henry epic -71%]

24 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

Shocking how big this OW was, so who had Deadpool, Zootopia & TJB beating BvS domestic? Just goes to show you, brand can only take you so far if the movie isn't well liked.

And there's still Civil War, Dory, Pets, SS, Moana and Rogue One to go 

 

(Yet five of those six have a relatively reasonable chance to finish above BvS DOM )

[Weekend Thread | The Jungle Book - Early Weekend Estimates 101m - 103m (DHD - Page 59) (Fri 32m, Sat 41.5m-42m) | RTH Saturday Early Est = 40-44M (Page 46) | Barbershop TNC - Est 20.4m (DHD) | Boss -59% | Hardcore Henry epic -71%]

13 minutes ago, vc2002 said:

Just how many Disney's films would beat BvS this year lol

1. Finding Dory: $470 million

2. Civil War: $445 million

3. Rogue One: $410 million

4. Deadpool: $360 million 

5. Moana: $345 million

6. Zootopia: $335 million

7. The Jungle Book: $335 million

8. Batman vs Superman: $330 million 

9. The Secret Lives of Pets: $305 million

10. Suicide Squad: $280 million

 

Might miss top 7 if Moana breaks out.

 

I'd say missing top 5 is a lock

[Weekend Prediction thread 7/4-7/7 Independence Day weekend Play the Derby]

4/22-4/24

1. The Jungle Book: $72 million ($200 million)
2. The Huntsman Winter's War: $31 million 
3. Barbershop 3: $12 million ($38 million) 
4. Zootopia: $7 million ($316 million) 
5. The Boss: $6.5 million ($50 million)
6. Elvis and Nixon: $4 million 
7. Batman vs. Superman: $3.5 million ($316 million)
8. Criminal: $3 million ($10 million)
9. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $2.5 million ($57 million) 
10. Miracles From Heaven: $1.5 million ($59 million)

4/29-5/1

1. The Jungle Book: $53 million ($271 million)
2. Keanu: $17 million 
3. The Huntsman Winter's War: $15 million ($54 million)
4. Mother's Day: $10 million 
5. Ratchet and Clank: $7 million 
6. Zootopia: $5.5 million ($324 million) 
7. Barbershop 3: $5 million ($45 million) 
8. The Boss: $3 million ($54 million) 
9. Elvis and Nixon: $2.5 million ($8 million) 
10. Batman vs. Superman: $2 million ($319 million) 

5/6-5/8

1. Captain America - Civil War: $178 million 
2. The Jungle Book: $24 million ($303 million) 
3. Mother's Day: $8 million ($22 million) 
4. Keanu: $7 million ($28 million)
5. The Huntsman Winter's War: $5 million ($62 million) 
6. Ratchet and Clank: $4.5 million ($13 million) 
7. Zootopia: $2.5 million ($327 million) 
8. Barbershop 3: $2.5 million ($49 million) 
9. The Boss: $2 million ($57 million) 
10. Elvis and Nixon: $1.5 million ($10 million) 

5/13-5/15

1. Captain America - Civil War: $80.5 million ($294 million)
2. The Jungle Book: $18 million ($328 million) 
3. Money Monster: $11 million 
4. Mother's Day: $6 million ($31 million) 
5. The Darkness: $5 million 
6. Keanu: $4.5 million ($35 million) 
7. Ratchet and Clank: $3.5 million ($17 million) 
8. Tne Huntsman Winter's War: $3 million ($66 million) 
9. Zootopia: $2 million ($330 million) 
10. Barbershop 3: $1.75 million ($52 million) 

5/20-5/22

1. Neighbors 2: $57 million 
2. Captain America - Civil War: $44 million ($359 million) 
3. The Angry Birds Movie: $33 million 
4. The Nice Guys: $10 million 
5. The Jungle Book: $8 million ($337 million) 
6. Money Monster: $7 million ($22 million) 
7. Mother's Day: $4 million ($37 million) 
8. The Darkness: $2.5 mililon ($9 million) 
9. Keanu: $2 million ($38 million) 
10. Ratchet and Clank: $1.5 million ($19 million) 

5/27-5/30

1. X-Men - Apocalypse: $104 million/$130.5 million 
2. Alice Through the Looking Glass: $60.5 million/$78 million 
3. Neighbors 2: $31 million/$38.5 million 
4. Captain America - Civil War: $26 million/$33 million ($405 million) 
5. The Angry Birds Movie: $20.5 million/$26 million ($64 million) 
6. The Nice Guys: $8 million/$9.5 million ($23 million) 
7. Money Monster: $4.5 million/$5.25 million ($29 million)
8. The Jungle Book: $4 million/$5 million ($343 million) 
9. Mother's Day: $3 million/$3.5 million ($42 million) 
10. The Darkness: $1.25 million/$1.5 million ($11 million) 

 

 

[Weekend Prediction thread 7/4-7/7 Independence Day weekend Play the Derby]

4/15-4/17

1. The Jungle Book: $94 million 
2. Barbershop 3: $22 million 
3. The Boss: $13 million ($43 million) 
4. Batman vs. Superman: $11 million ($313 million) 
5. Zootopia: $8.5 million ($306 million) 
6. Criminal: $6 million 
7. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $5 million ($54 million)
8. Miracles From Heaven: $3.5 million ($59 million) 
9. God's Not Dead 2: $3 million ($18 million)
10. Hardcore Henry: $2.5 million ($9 million)

4/22-4/24

1. The Jungle Book: $65.5 million ($181 million)
2. The Huntsman Winter's War: $27 million 
3. Barbershop 3: $10 million ($37 million)
4. The Boss: $9 million ($57 million) 
5. Zootopia: $7 million ($315 million)
6. Batman vs. Superman: $5 million ($321 million)
7. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $4 million ($60 million) 
8. Elvis and Nixon: $3.5 million 
9. Miracles From Heaven: $2.5 million ($63 million)
10. Criminal: $2.5 million ($10 million)

4/29-5/1

1. The Jungle Book: $43 million ($239 million) 
2. Keanu: $17 million 
3. The Huntsman Winter's War: $15 million ($50 million)
4. Mother's Day: $12 million
5. Ratchet and Clank: $7 million 
6. The Boss: $5 million ($64 million) 
7. Zootopia: $4.5 million ($321 million) 
8. Batman vs. Superman: $3.5 million ($326 million) 
9. Barbershop 3: $3 million ($42 million) 
10. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $2.5 million ($64 million) 

5/6-5/8

1. Captain America - Civil War: $172 million 
2. The Jungle Book: $22 million ($269 million) 
3. Mother's Day: $9 million ($25 million) 
4. Keanu: $6.5 million ($27 million) 
5. The Huntsman Winter's War: $5.5 million ($58 million) 
6. Ratchet and Clank: $4 million ($12 million) 
7. The Boss: $3 million ($67 million) 
8. Zootopia: $2.5 million ($324 million)
9. Barbershop 3: $1.5 million ($44 million) 
10. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $1.5 million ($66 million) 

5/13-5/15

1. Captain America - Civil War: $77.5 million ($286 million) 
2. The Jungle Book: $17 million ($292 million) 
3. Money Monster: $13 million
4. Kidnap: $9 million 
5. The Darkness: $6.5 million 
6. Mother's Day: $6 million ($34 million) 
7. Keanu: $4 million ($33 million) 
8. The Huntsman Winter's War: $3.5 million ($63 million) 
9. Ratchet and Clank: $3 million ($16 million)
10. The Boss: $2 million ($70 million)

5/20-5/22

1. Neighbors 2: $64 million 
2. Captain America - Civil War: $42 million ($349 million) 
3. The Angry Birds Movie: $35 million 
4. The Nice Guys: $11 million 
5. The Jungle Book: $7.5 million ($301 million)
6. Money Monster: $7 million ($23 million) 
7. Kidnap: $4 million ($15 million)
8. Mother's Day: $4 million ($40 million) 
9. The Darkness: $2.5 million ($10 million) 
10. The Huntsman Winter's War: $2 million ($66 million) 

5/27-5/30

1. X-Men - Apocalypse: $104.5 million/$130 million 
2. Alice Through the Looking Glass: $56.5 million/$72 million 
3. Neighbors 2: $33.5 million/$42 million ($122 million)
4. Captain America - Civil War: $22 million/$28 million ($388 million)
5. The Angry Birds Movie: $20 million/$25 million ($65 million)
6. The Nice Guys: $7 million/$8.5 million ($23 million)
7. Money Monster: $4.5 million/$5.5 million ($31 million) 
8. The Jungle Book: $3.5 million/$4.5 million ($306 million)
9. Mother's Day: $2.5 million/$3 million ($44 million) 
10. Kidnap: $2 million/$2.5 million ($18 million) 

[Monday BvS 3.1 Rth]

If BvS does sub-$20 million this weekend, it'll finish below Zootopia, Deadpool and possibly (not likely) Jungle Book DOM. 

 

Might not even make the top 7 DOM for 2016 if CA3, Dory and Rogue One live up to expectations and Moana/Pets/SS break out. 

 

Might even miss a 2x 

[Weekend Prediction thread 7/4-7/7 Independence Day weekend Play the Derby]

4/8-4/10

1. The Boss: $26 million
2. Batman vs. Superman: $23 million ($297 million)
3. Zootopia: $16.5 million ($297 million)
4. Hardcore Henry: $9 million
5. MBFGW2: $8 million ($49 million)
6. Miracles From Heaven: $6 million ($55 million)
7. Before I Wake: $5.5 million 
8. God's Not Dead 2: $5 million ($15 million)
9. Allegiant: $4 million ($62 million)
10. 10 Cloverfield Lane: $3.5 million ($69 million)

 

4/15-4/17

1. The Jungle Book: $118.5 million
2. Barbershop 3: $22.5 million
3. The Boss: $14 million ($47 million)
4. Batman vs. Superman: $11 million ($314 million)
5. Zootopia: $9 million ($307 million)
6. Criminal: $7 million
7. MBFGW2: $5.5 million ($57 million)
8. Miracles From Heaven: $4.5 million ($61 million)
9. Hardcore Henry: $4 million ($15 million)
10. God's Not Dead 2: $3.5 million ($20 million)

4/22-4/24

1. The Jungle Book: $79 million ($221 million) 
2. The Huntsman Winter's War: $27 million 
3. The Boss: $10.5 million ($63 million) 
4. Barbershop 3: $9 million ($36 million) 
5. Zootopia: $7.5 million ($316 million) 
6. Batman vs. Superman: $6 million ($323 million) 
7. Criminal: $4 million ($13 million) 
8. MBFGW2: $4 million ($63 million) 
9. Miracles From Heaven: $3.5 million ($66 million) 
10. Elvis and Nixon: $3 million 

4/29-5/1

1. The Jungle Book: $52 million ($289 million) 
2. Keanu: $17 million 
3. The Huntsman Winter's War: $13 million ($47 million) 
4. Mother's Day: $11 million 
5. Ratchet and Clank: $6 million 
6. The Boss: $5 million ($70 million) 
7. Zootopia: $4.5 million ($321 million) 
8. Batman vs. Superman: $4 million ($329 million) 
9. Barbershop 3: $3.5 million ($41 million) 
10. MBFGW2: $3 million ($68 million)

5/6-5/8

1. Captain America - Civil War: $177 million 
2. The Jungle Book: $24 million ($332 million) 
3. Mother's Day: $9.5 million ($25 million) 
4. Keanu: $6 million ($26 million) 
5. The Huntsman Winter's War: $5 million ($55 million) 
6. The Boss: $4 million ($76 million) 
7. Ratchet and Clank: $3.5 million ($10 million) 
8. Zootopia: $3 million ($325 million)  
9. MBFGW2: $2 million ($71 million) 
10. Barbershop 3: $2 million ($44 million) 

5/13-5/15

1. Captain America - Civil War: $76 million ($293 million) 
2. The Jungle Book: $18 million ($356 million) 
3. Money Monster: $11 million 
4. Kidnap: $8 million 
5. Mother's Day: $6 million ($34 million) 
6. The Darkness: $4 million 
7. Keanu: $3.5 million ($31 million) 
8. The Huntsman Winter's War: $3 million ($60 million) 
9. The Boss: $3 million ($80 million) 
10. Zootopia: $2.25 million ($328 million) 

5/20-5/22

1. Neighbors 2: $62 million 
2. Captain America - Civil War: $40 million ($354 million) 
3. The Angry Birds Movie: $33 million 
4. The Nice Guys: $13 million 
5. The Jungle Book: $8 million ($366 million)
6. Money Monster: $6 million ($20 million)
7. Kidnap: $4 million ($14 million) 
8. Mother's Day: $3.5 million ($39 million) 
9. The Darkness: $2 million 
10. Keanu: $1.5 million ($33 million) 

5/27-5/29

1. X-Men - Apocalypse: $102 million/$128 million 
2. Alice Through the Looking Glass: $54 million/$71 million
3. Neighbors 2: $36 million/$46.5 million ($126 million) 
4. Captain America - Civil War: $23.5 million/$31 million ($396 million) 
5. The Angry Birds Movie: $21 million/$26.5 million ($64 million) 
6. The Nice Guys: $9 million/$11 million ($28 million)
7. Money Monster: $4 million/$5 million ($27 million) 
8. The Jungle Book: $3 million/$4 million ($371 million)
9. Kidnap: $2.5 million/$3 million ($18 million)
10. Mother's Day: $2 million/$2.5 million ($42 million) 

 

[Weekend Estimates : BVS 52.39M | Zootopia 20M | Wedding 11.13M | God's Not Dead 8.1M | Sun Rth - Bvs 12 or 14.2, Zoo 5.3, MBFGW2 2.8, GND2 2]

20 minutes ago, Dingdong123 said:

 

They didn't. Hell, did anyone know Zootopia would be this leggy?

With zero kid-friendly films from March 4th thru April 15th and the critical acclaim, I'm not the least bit surprised at its legs. 

[Weekend Estimates : BVS 52.39M | Zootopia 20M | Wedding 11.13M | God's Not Dead 8.1M | Sun Rth - Bvs 12 or 14.2, Zoo 5.3, MBFGW2 2.8, GND2 2]

22 minutes ago, La Binoche said:

Jungle Book is gonna hurt Zootopia. I wonder if Disney knew Zoo would still be a force by the time of JB's release. 

It'll be in double features with Jungle Book and other films will lose screens before it (the lower grossing March releases, God's Not Dead 2)

 

$310-340 million DOM is excellent either way!

 

And with Jungle Book's positive buzz and zero competition, it could very well do $300 million+ with a large enough OW.

 

With Civil War, Alice 2, Dory, BFG, Pete's, Doctor Strange, Moans and Rogue One still to go. 

[2016 100M Films - 30 down, 6 to go! (Passengers Played The Long Game)]

1. Deadpool
2. Kung Fu Panda 3 
3. Zootopia
4. Batman vs. Superman: Dawn of Justice
5. The Jungle Book 
6. Captain America: Civil War 
7. Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising
8. The Angry Birds Movie
9. X-Men: Apocalypse 
10. Alice Through the Looking Glass
11. TMNT 2 
12. The Conjuring 2
13. Finding Dory
14. Central Intelligence
15. Independence Day 2
16. The BFG 
17. The Secret Lives of Pets
18. Ghostbusters
19. Ice Age 5 
20. Star Trek Beyond
21. Jason Bourne
22. Suicide Squad
23. The Founder
24. Sausage Party 
25. The Magnificent Seven
26. Storks 
27. Deepwater Horizon 
28. The Birth of a Nation
29. The Girl on the Train 
30. Doctor Strange
31. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
32. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 
33. Moana 
34. La La Land 
35. Rogue One
36. Passengers
37. Sing
38. Patriots Day 

Possible... I don't know if it'll happen, though. 

[Weekend Prediction thread 7/4-7/7 Independence Day weekend Play the Derby]

4/1-4/3 

BvS: $65.5 million ($278 million)

God's Not Dead 2: $21 million

Zootopia: $17.5 million ($265 million)

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $13 million ($39 million)

Allegiant: $7.5 million ($59 million)

Miracles From Heaven: $5.5 million ($43 million)

10 Cloverfield Lane: $4.5 million ($63 million)

Deadpool: $4 million ($356 million)

Hello, My Name is Doris: $2 million ($6 million)

London Has Fallen: $2 million ($58 million)

 

4/8-4/10

BvS: $34 million ($339 million)

The Boss: $28.5 million

Zootopia: $14 million ($284 million)

God's Not Dead 2: $12 million ($38 million)

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $8 million ($51 million)

Hardcore Henry: $7.5 million 

Allegiant: $5 million ($66 million)

Before I Wake: $4.5 million 

Miracles From Heaven: $4 million ($47 million) 

10 Cloverfield Lane: $3 million ($67 million)