dxmatrixdt

Miss Peregrine's held well. It took a 32% dip in per screen average for a 400K weekend. It needs to be at 86,613,420 to make a 3x opening weekend multiplier. It is $825,779 shy after this weekend. It looks safe now. I was a bit skeptical before this weekend. Civil War smacked Batman vs Superman's per screen average down 60.3% from the previous weekend! BIG DIFFERENCE FOR MISS PEREGRINE!!

it seems Fantastic Beasts is being predicted to finish at 250-275 via BOM and BOP? I agree. I also think Doctor Strange will make 250 and challenge FB.

misery awaits!

no cinemascore for Billy Lynn

Yikes! So, Beasts - 75 Doctor - 17.5 Trolls - 16.70 (using Peanuts weekend 3 comparison) Arrival - 12.25

just need Billy Lynn's cinemascore. I am assuming Moonlight will not have one.

Ready Player Two and Ready Player Three predicts??? will Spielberg direct back-to-back??

i give it an A

Have we come up with the full reason of why Ex Machina won the award? Did any of the voters come out and give the reasons for this? Ex Machina won the majority vote!!!! Do you think there was talk amongst the voters to vote for the intellectual underdog (Ex Machina) to make a Hollywood political statement. If you love to predict who wins these awards, we need to figure out why this movie won and what it means for the future. As of today, I saw Fantastic Beasts and I think it has better effects than any of the summer blockbusters... SO FAR) 1. Dr. Strange 2. Jungle Book 3. Fantastic Beasts 4. Rogue One 5. (another December film) Arrival, Civil War, Pete's Dragon, The BFG

BOM changed Shut In to 3.61. other websites have it at 3.50. perhaps its too late to change anything, just fyi

Dr Strange should be at 180 by next Sunday.

its doing "okay" with reserved seating. one showing had 66 seats reserved at $10 each so I take that as the peak. $660 for the day would be something like 1.358M for Friday

MY ANALYSIS Doctor Strange – I think I will be liberal with how it does on Saturday and Sunday. It clearly is a must see in 3D so I think that and the IMAX and higher screens will keep the weekend multiplier not so frontloaded. An opening day number of $32,559,000 consists of $9,400,000 from Thursday night and $23, 159,000 on Friday. From 3,882 locations, per location average is $5,966. Assume a +25% increase Saturday and -33% decrease Sunday. That makes a 3-day average of $18,419 for 71.50M. Add in Thursday previews and it makes 80.90M. Average is $20,840. For a hypothetical 81M, the average is $20,866. Boxoffice.com projects 81.0M and I will stand by that. I project a 70% drop Monday for 5.82M, 33% Tuesday increase for 7.76M, and a 50% drop for Wednesday and Thursday at 3.88M each day. That gives a 7 day sum of 102.34M. A second weekend of 37.66M gives it 140M in 10 days. That is a 53.51% decrease from the first weekend and 47.4% drop excluding Thursday previews. 300M could be possible if it hits 90M this weekend and has phenomenal legs. I think it should make around the 250M Thor 2 was projected to make after opening weekend. Fantastic Beasts should not hit it as hard as Frozen + Catching Fire. Trolls – Opening day is $12,300,000. $11,400,000 Friday and $900,000 Thursday previews. 11.4M Friday gives $2,808 per location average. A 19.0M Saturday could result if it increases 66.66666% today. Assume a .66666666 drop Sunday and you have a 3 day sum of 43.068M. Add in 900K in Thursday previews and the 44.0M that boxoffice.com seems to be on target. Hacksaw Ridge – I am going a little higher than boxoffice.com is projecting. Opening day is $5,220,000. Friday is $4,470,000 for an average of $1,549. I see the need to go conservative. On Saturday The Accountant increased 23.81%, The Girl on a Train-11.87%, Jack Reacher – 16.98%, Inferno – 19.70%, Magnificent Seven – 25.34%, Snowden – 14.35%, Bridget Joneses 21.96% and Birth of a Nation – 20.04%. I assume boxoffice.com did not consider Sully and the expected 35.60% increase it had, but maybe it forgot to compare with Deepwater Horizon and its 33.70% Saturday increase. I think Hacksaw Ridge stands a great chance of increasing at least 33.333333333% today for a 5.96 Saturday. To complete the analysis for a 15.000 weekend, Sunday would be 3.82 million for a 36% decrease from Saturday. I think it will decrease a little better than this, but no adult drama has decreased this well on Sunday yet this fall season. In fact, Birth of a Nation dropped 36.06% from its first Saturday and this figure with Hacksaw Ridge gives 35.91% so it’s a good theory to rest at and a 15.00M weekend. A 5.0 multiplier gives it a Bridge of Spies like 75M total. I wonder what would have happened with Bridge of Spies if it chose this release date a year ago and went against Spectre or in Spectre’s second week??? HOLDOVERS American Pastoral - As a Ewan McGregor fan, I am upset with how this film is doing. It expanded from 51 locations last week to 70 this week. One of the expanding locations is a local cinema that has reserved seating and I sneaked a peek and was disappointed seeing the results. It does not look good for long term aspects like the way Desierto is holding. American Pastoral averaged $314 per location, down 28.8% from last week, but the dollar gross should hold steady in the upper 80K range for the weekend and a total north of .420M. Hopefully a best picture win will further its chances of hitting 100M and bringing Obi-Wan Kenobi into the spotlight. Birth of a Nation – Down 7.79% in per screen average from last Friday @ $355. In fact, its second Friday it averaged $377 from 2,105 locations. Its third Friday it averaged $407 from 633 locations. Its fourth Friday it averaged $385 from 404 locations. And this fifth Friday it averaged $355 from 197 locations. Look for reported numbered to slowly trickle along for the next few months. Total should be 15.56M after Sunday. Middle School – Looking to add $391,000 for a cume of 19.11. 20M looks entirely possible. Weekend per screen average should be down 17.23% from last weekend.

can anyone call Miss Peregrine and find out if they are doing double features with Trolls this weekend? that will give a hint for Sunday's drop

Per screen averages with Deadline estimates (33M Dr Strange) minus Thursday previews... Doctor Strange - $6079 Trolls - $2783 Hacksaw Ridge - $1507 Madea Halloween - $940 Inferno - $531 Accountant - $632 Jack Reacher - $520 Ouija - $462 Girl on a Train - $510 Miss Peregrine - $298 My opinions normal increases for Inferno, Jack Reacher, and Miss Peregrine. Above average and solid for Accountant. Way above average and out of this world for Girl on a Train. Above average increase for Ouija. The only low one to complain about is A Madea Halloween. If everything else rebounded that well from weekday #'s, then expect Madea to go up past $1,000 PSA. Very good for Ouija. It looks like the female demographic held onto Ouiji and Girl on a Train. Assuming Trolls had a large female audience, Miss Peregrine still survived this and will now hold until Fantastic Beasts. 90M in play. Male audience solid all around. It is just Madea Halloween that is a little confusing.

China had good late nights for Doctor Strange

BOM dailies are in. Don't Breathe had a better drop than Ouija on Monday... - DON'T BREATHE Sony / Screen Gems 431 $39,187 -21.8% / $91 $88,907,048 / 67 $25,059 -36.1% / $58 $88,932,107 / 68 $20,575 -17.9% / $48 $88,952,682 / 69 $15,766 -23.4% / $37 $88,968,448 / 70

good for everything except everything

good for Ouija. Inferno could not even get a sub 60 hold on Halloween (first day without World Series competition). now it competes with World Series tuesday and wednesday and then Thursday....... Could not have been worse for Inferno. It needed to drop 50% on Monday and it failed!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

typo for Inferno's actual

.

bump. Saw it on tv this weekend. interesting film. times have changed.

THE WINNER - TOTAL ATTENDANCE Inferno - 2,671 admissions. 61 showtimes, 43.8 avg. Boo/Madea - 2,284 admissions. 43 showtimes, 53.1 avg. The Accountant - 1,907 admissions. 49 showtimes, 38.9 avg. Ouiji 2 - 1,806 admissions. 43 showtimes, 42.0 avg. Jack Reacher 2 - 1,627 admissions. 60 showtimes, 27.1 avg. (Suicide Squad second weekend ratios LOL) Girl on the Train - 743 admissions. 30 showtimes, 24.8 avg. Keeping Up with the Joneses - 541 admissions. 35 showtimes, 15.5 avg. Miss Peregrine - 506 admissions. 27 showtimes, 18.7 avg Kevin Hart - 468 admissions. 25 showtimes, 18.7 avg Desierto - 256 admissions. 14 showtimes, 18.3 avg Deepwater Horizon - 237 admissions. 13 showtimes, 18.2 avg. Magnificent Seven - 138 admissions. 11 showtimes, 12.5 avg. Sully - 97 admissions. 5 showtimes, 19.4 avg. Don't Breathe - 50 admissions. 5 showtimes, 10.0 avg. Storks - 41 admissions. 4 showtimes, 10.3 avg. Middle School - 33 admissions. 3 showtimes, 11.0 avg.

Deep Mag 7 Desierto 4:00 0 4:30 5 4:15 9 4:10 4 6:15 17 5:15 0 4:15 13 6:20 8 5:30 22 5:00 19 6:30 28 5:35 0 6:40 16 6:45 15 6:45 20 6:45 17 7:40 8 7:55 34 7:00 51 8:45 14 8:00 29 7:45 29 9:15 14 8:10 13 9:00 25 9:25 14 8:10 19 9:30 28 10:05 10 9:15 45 9:35 8 10:50 5 10:25 36 10:00 10 10:35 14 10:45 17 total 138 10:40 10 avg 12.54545 10:45 5 total 237 avg 18.23077 total 256 avg 18.28571

Miss P Girl/Train 4:05 7 4:20 1 4:30 13 4:35 10 4:45 12 4:45 8 4:45 6 5:10 7 6:15 23 5:20 0 6:15 16 5:20 2 6:30 24 5:30 33 6:30 16 5:45 19 6:50 38 6:00 25 6:50 28 6:40 23 6:50 10 7:00 77 7:05 37 7:10 23 7:05 16 7:15 42 7:35 18 7:20 40 7:45 39 7:20 19 7:50 18 7:30 54 9:30 18 8:00 26 9:30 12 8:00 36 9:30 54 8:10 31 9:50 27 8:30 50 9:50 17 9:35 28 9:50 4 9:45 17 10:10 24 10:00 12 10:10 6 10:05 42 10:40 6 10:15 25 10:45 11 10:15 32 10:55 6 10:45 30 10:45 14 total 506 11:00 11 avg 18.74074 11:15 6 total 743 avg 24.76667 Storks Middle S 4:20 10 5:00 7 5:30 13 6:00 26 8:00 18 9:00 0 10:25 0 total 33 total 41 avg 11 avg 10.25