I can’t see them showing a trailer before the summer. Maybe a teaser in March with Mulan. But If I had to guess either May or June to be shown in front of Black Widow or Wonder Woman as those will be the two biggest movies of the summer and West Side Story is the lone Fox/Disney December release.
It's too early to say what WOM does to Mr. Rogers movie, at worst it makes 80-90m (which is still good) instead of 100m+. You're also forgetting Jumanji 2 which is going to their second billion dollar grosser.
I dont think it makes sense for them to put the CM sequel in February, she's a marquee player now-deserves the big summer slot. That FEB date makes more sense to launch a new franchise aka Blade.
It looks like a well made and well acted film but I predict Widows numbers at best. Green Book was much more audience friendly film and I anticipate this film will have a depressing ending. I do have some faith that universal can push it for awards though.