The Panda

Also with a 181m OW, I2 would need a 3.77x multi to pass TLK’s first run adjusted and become the best selling animation of all time adjusted (unadjusted is already locked and loaded)

Now all this needs is a 3.87x multi to pass 700m for #1 of the year DOM!!

That club already exists, it’s called “Incredibles 2 #1 of the year club”

Definitely looking like this will land in the 180m OW range!

Yeah, I really don’t see how it has a multi worse than Dory’s given it’s already holding better than Dory, it doesn’t have near the amount of direct competition as Dory, and it’s a much bigger crowd pleaser than Dory.

Still no Saturday numbers? The lack of updates despite how massive this weekend is is pretty sad. We had more updates for Ocean's 8, which this will open 7x as large as.

Marvel started the MCU prior to being bought by Disney, they'd still be kicking.

Dang it I missed the nice joke. Shame on me.

A 71.6m OD is ouch? The earlier Friday estimates were in the high 60 range, so it improved.

Also, remember with trailer views that they’re worldwide and don’t result in a one-to-one comparison. They can gage interest, but it’s still not something I’d base a sole prediction on. As, different genres and franchises tend to perform differently with trailer views (for example SW movies tend to have lower trailer views than equivalent Marvel/Superheor movies, even if they ended up performing better) For JW, I don’t buy people saying it’ll open under 100m, but given that pre-sales seem decent at best so far I’m not sold that it’ll necessarily break out anywhere close to the levels of the first one. Still I think around 150m for its OW seems reasonable

194. I2 195. Solo 196. JWFK 197. Christopher Robin 198. Venom 199. First Man 200. The Grinch

Weekday numbers will be big because it’s summer. If anything, if it’s more weekend heavy then it’ll likely indicate a lot more adult appeal

It’ll be closer to a 4x multi than 3x

That also doesn’t mean that’ll be the demo for its entire run. It’ll likely become more family-centric the longer it stays in theaters.

Fri: 71.6m Sat: 60.2m Sun: 51.2m OW: 183m

IT SAYS IT MADE 71.6m ON FRIDAY

A steeper internal multiplier should be expected, that won’t necessarily mean external front loading though (think TFA in that regards as the most obvious example)

What I particularly liked about this one was that it harkens back to some of those classical ideas of superheroes. Crime fighting, secret identities, bright and colorful, vigilantes, and the cartoon classical idea of superpowers. It plays with all of those ideas really well, while mixing in the parenting stuff.

Except the movie is currently breaking out with no indication of anything but stellar WoM in a genre that only has a multi around 3x when WoM is bad?

Avatar was definitely highly hyped up years before release. Its OW was actually diluted because of a major snowstorm. There was a ton of focus on what Cameron as doing next after Titanic. TFA still had great legs for a holiday release, so I fail to see your point there. And for I2, it's pretty much the same case as TA in that regards, there's been a vocal base screaming for a sequel, but I reckon a good portion didn't care until they knew it was happening. Hell, Infinity War right now is having much better legs than most of us had predicted, some of the best legs out of MCU releases, and that movie was 10 years of build up. If there was major frontloading then we should see it within its internal multiplier, like you would in a Star Wars film, not necessarily its external one. External multipliers are almost always determined by a mixture of genre, competition and reception. All three of those things work in I2's favor when it comes to legs. It sounds more like you're trying to talk yourself into I2 being close to whatever your original predict was.

My bet is this club will be dead in August.

Here's some movies that were highly anticipated over a long period of time and had great legs for their genres The Force Awakens Black Panther Finding Dory The Avengers Avatar The Dark Knight Toy Story 3

Not buying why this movie has to be necessarily overly frontloaded

It’s a PG family movie that adjusts over 100m sooo

To be fair the Incredibles had direct competition 3 weeks in a row with Polar Express, then National Treasure/SpongeBob, then Christmas with the Kranks and it still managed to pull strong legs.