The Panda

WB should turn it into a true cinematic universe, because it's playing as one.

Annabelle Creation is the only appealing movie to the GA besides maybe Hitman's Bodyguard or Detroit in August. I done messed up leaving it out of my summer game.

60m isn't bold at all. 100m OW or bust.

My gold competition strategy paid off. I predicted barely under the lowest predict, in hopes everyone would overestimate the weekend and was right.

I loved the Immigrant, this movie was definitely a step down. This is a movie that's better in retrospect, however, and more time to digest it could help. However, the process of watch the movie could be a bit draining, and a tad boring. Its visual style and storytelling are unique, and some of the camerawork is quite impressive. It's ultimately a film I'm going to respect for its craft more than enjoy for its merits. B

Not going to post a full blown review but I really liked this movie. Full of heart and absurdity, and the ending hits you like a rock. Better than any of the tentpoles I've seen this summer A

77.988m

He took FTSBF literally.

We werent.

Come on now, a best case scenario will at least have a Sat increase! Get with it!

An 11m budget from 1979 adjusted for inflation would be about a 37m budget today. Now I don't think they, on average, spent as much money on films in the 70s as they do now, but still it's not even close to spending whatever they're spending on Valerian. However, films like Cleopatra and Superman adjusted over 200m budget, so it's not like massive budget films never happened.

Either way, it's showing wear from Minions and I wouldn't bank on 300m happening. Universal will be fine because it's still making a good profit, but the franchise has peaked.

Way to nitpick and ignore the point of the post.

The ultimate thing to remember is each movie is a culmination of a near infinite number of unique factors that cannot be repeated. Each movie is unique, and you can't shoehorn how they'll do in a little box because of this. It's why studio execs thought George Lucas' Star Wars would bomb yet didn't think twice to greenlight stuff like Lone Ranger. Theres no all powerful rule that'll tell you how a movie will perform or what makes a movie good. That's why it's an art and not a science.

Exactly. Especially from a logical perspective, the correlation they're using is with DOM BO gross, which factors in WoM, which is known to have to do with people thinking a movie is good or bad (it just so happens GA tends to roughly agree with critics, minus some exceptions). If RT actually has an effect on BO you'd have to see it be with OWs. And even then, any stats you can do with that would be rough and not be factoring in nearly everything.

You'll really need to look at OWs if you're wanting to see if RT has a potential BO effect. Not DOM grosses. I remember finding a significant correlation between reviews and a movie's legs (especially when accounting for genre and budget), but that isn't likely a causation relationship, more of a happenstance.

Thats a pretty simple and rough analysis they did though. They didn't even test for the significance of the correlation. Rotten films are also more likely to have poor WoM (which I'll agree there's a correlation between reviews and legs, but that's because a movie is bad or good, not because of the reviews themselves. In that case they're a possible indicator) which will lead to more lower grossing rotten films. The argument is that RT is causing movies to make or break, which simply isn't the case at all.

The Boss Baby - 173.3m (52%) Piss poor animation reviews, only animated film to overperform this year. Beauty and the Beast - 507.8m (71%) Under your law it shouldn't have exploded The LEGO Batman Movie - 175.8m (90%) A near 100m decrease from the LEGO Movie despite great reviews and an open animated market. Power Rangers - 40.3m Opening (46%) Was tracking poorly before reviews, still opened above expectations, even with strong competition. Had poor WoM though. Captain Underpants - 75m? DOM (85%) Best reviews for a Dreamworks movie since HTTYD2, and it'll be the worst grossing. You botch some of that to Dreamworks intending on it being a cheap film and they picked a bad release date, but everyone who had it in their top 15 for the Summer game predicted higher. Alien: Covenant - 74m? DOM (71%) Certified fresh but had a poor opening, and terrible WoM. Tomatometer didn't seem to overpower franchise fatigue. And so on. Maybe I'm just bringing up anecdotes and outliers, but I don't see a Tomato law in effect. When the years done I'll be happy to do a statistical breakdown and run some regressions to see if I can even find any kind of correlation (there's not enough data points yet of wide releases for the year to do an effective one right now). As of right now, I'm not buying it beyond having a marginal effect and possibly helping smaller, niche movies gain awareness.

I fail to see how RT plays a role here? You said yourself all of Edgar Wright's movies are acclaimed on RT, if so Baby Driver shouldn't be his first breakout. You're looking at single data points that fit your story, but that's a flawed way to see if there's even a correlation (not to even be getting at causation).

This is true. There's too many cases, even this year, of RT holding no effect for me to believe it has any more than a marginal effect on the Box Office. I think the cases where critics help or hurt is when it comes to movies like Baby Driver or Get Out, that don't have much awareness but reviews help to get it out on the front pages of the trades (and work as a marketing tool).

I haven't been able to find any statistically significant correlation between BO gross and Tomatometer. Even when I've factored in genre, budget, and so forth. Surveys that I have seen also only have shown tomatometer playing a factor for young white males. Maybe it's become more of a factor this year, and I'm also not denying that it can help or hurt a movie (especially if it's a low budget niche movie) but it's not what's causing movies to bomb or break out. We see tracking evidence of this even before reviews. There's a better likelihood that good movies are easier to market, more likely to get good reviews and more likely to have good WoM.

The Shallows was a studio film, 47 Meters Down was from Entertainment Studios and was supposed to be a Direct to video release. 47 Meters is going to come fairly close to the Shallows with next to no marketing. I know they're both shark movies, but 47 Meters Down is doing way better than it ever should have. Also, by that logic Baby Driver should be exploding, not performing marginally better than a typical Edgar Wright film.

If Tomato Law is true, shouldn't 47 Meters Down be bombing?

Youre right, Baby Driver's too good to be compared to Mad Max.

At least those being "superhero" movies you can take kids to them by mistake.