The Panda

I was predicting around that for Guardians. Spidey is a frontloaded franchise, you also have an Iron Man crossover, and two weekends of strong direct competition. GA reception is what could push it over a 2.5x.

I'm out, Incredibles 2 will do well but it's no Finding Dory, it'll have a tough time hitting 400m. Han Solo is going to need to be terrible not to hit 400m.

Spidey is going to need to open to 120m to have a good shot at 300m. Legs would also have to be relatively strong.

Aquaman has a shot if it keeps its date and Han Solo doesn't move. Animated Spidey could, if it happens. Incredibles 2 likely will.

In formal music there's this thing called a show piece. When you are putting on a diversified concert, with a strong group of musicians, you play a piece that's only purpose is to show off the technical skill. These are great pieces, and while not every piece of music should be one (especially since there usually isn't much depth beyond the spectacle) they're vital and memorable. Baby Driver felt like Edgar Wright's cinematic showpiece. There's plenty of technical nuances to make you come back for more, and each scene is littered with right choreography, editing and cinematography. The story is completely irrelevant because it's about how good of a technical show it is, and it demonstrates the skills and prowess of all those involved (including the actor, to an extent). Now, I risk calling myself a hypocrite by saying this is excellent while criticizing most modern blockbusters of being empty spectacle. However, the difference here isn't that Baby Driver has some thematic or artistic depth that those movies lack, it's that Baby Driver is competently made and packed to the brim with artistic intention from Wright. It's all spectacle, but it's a controlled one that leaves the viewer engaged with the inner workings of every shot. My only flaw was the court ending and such felt like a bit of a drag and tacked on. It wasn't necessary, given that in the span of 2 minutes he went from jailed to back on the road with his girl again. Wright didn't need to let his audience know that Baby had a heart, it was already evident from prior scenes. He should have either ended it there on the road, or with Baby going to prison (if he didn't want him to get away with the crimes), he was having his cake and eating it too. Other than that, Wright's at the top of his game here, and it's the best straight technical-action work I've seen since Fury Road. A

Hail Edgar Wright and that technical brilliance.

45 - 50 or so

People are underestimating Han Solo, id give it the best odds to win the year, then JW2

Wow, my showing of Baby Driver that's in an hour is sold out.

Yeah, I had my DM club typed out and then I thought "this is too loonie, I'll do a WW club."

Dunkirk will do well because it looks fresh and will appeal to an ignored adult audience.

Yeah, Pets attracted audiences outside of just families, as did Inside Out and Dory.

I think Pets (and Sing) over DM3 just shows that the GA will eat up a unique and fresh concept over a sequel if studios are willing to sell it. Same thing with Inside Out beating out most animated sequels it was around.

Strong legs are relative. I'm willing to be SM:H doesn't have a 3x multi (and likely doesn't come that close) because it's the 6th SM film. The only SH movies with 3x multis are originals or de-facto originals.

It's also why I think, despite reviews, War will still go under Rise. It's not a franchise the GA cares about. Homecoming is going to be the first test for the genre this year, as Spidey is a franchise that had been on a steep decline. It'll be interesting to see if that actually does a 180 or just has a small bump. It could be the positive reception that saves it from this. Thor: Ragnarok has the benefit of looking completely different from the last Thor movie and having a fun trailer. It'll also test this. Justice League will benefit from WW doing well, but I'm still betting on it being either the lowest or 2nd lowest grossing DCU film.

I'm even more mad now I didn't make the DM3 < DM club a few weeks back. I had to make that stupid WW 4th weekend club instead.

The only thing bold about that is the font.

Illumination should scrap Minions and just make the next DM for 2021, give the franchise some time to breathe. But yeah, this really is a mini-Shrek 4 situation. A strong first movie, a massive second, a massive third (but disappoints quality wise and with legs), and a fourth that disappoints. I think Illumination should continue to diversify though, franchises are good, but very few franchises have true longevity (on the lengths of SW, MCU, Batman, etc). Pixar and WDAS got into the stable positions they're in because they haven't relied on sequels (although they're starting to, and that could eventually spell trouble). I think the GA in general is just getting Sequel-itis. Even out of the comic book movies this year, Logan isolated itself from X-Men and told a unique story, GOTG2 was a sequel to a fresh concept (and not an age old franchise they've already had multiple installments of), and WW for all purposes felt and played like an original. I am starting to think comic book fatigue won't be a problem, it's going to be franchise fatigue. Marvel and DC will be fine with their expanded universes if they can still make each individual movie feel like its own thing, and not a sequel. Star Wars should also be fine because it's Star Wars. But I think this "franchise everything" mindset is going to coming back to bite studios in the butt. Even something that seemed like a 300m shoe-in, DM3, is disappointing.

Lol, I thought I was really low balling DM3 for the summer game, but it wasn't low enough.

I need to get good at part three, I think my average is 2/6

Dawn also had excellent reviews and it had no competition. 200m is still a tough goal for this imo.

I'm bumping this fan club, Blade Runner 2049 also looks phenomenal

Box Office wise it'd be since around Avatar, with the explosion of foreign markets.

Dont forget it's just a big theme park advertisement!