Gokai Red
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Posts posted by Gokai Red
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14 minutes ago, Doctor Stark said:
Endgame holding like a champ, wow.
It is a champ 😎
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1 hour ago, RealLyre said:
since when do people bet real money on box office numbers
In the summer of 2013, when I worked at a movie theater, my coworker and I made a bet. Iron Man 3 vs Man of Steel, me for Iron Man, him on Man of Steel. Whichever movie grossed more was $20 for the winner, and an additional $20 for every $50m over. I won $60 from the bet ($20 for winning in general, an additional $40 since Iron Man made 118m more).
Homeboy gave me $60 in pennies. Needless to say, my bank was not ammused.
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2 hours ago, MikeQ said:
That is, I would say, largely because of the two original juggernauts of Titanic (1997) and then Avatar (2009). It seems a handful of sequels and established franchises would have snatched the worldwide record, if these two original films hadn’t so dramatically set new records (smashing the $1 billion and $2 billion marks, respectively, so handily for the first time). Titanic’s 12 year stretch with the crown is the longest serving worldwide record in modern box office history.
It is interesting to look at the films that would have set the worldwide record if Titanic and Avatar hadn’t existed. For example, the Harry Potter series would have set the record twice with its first and final films of the series. The final Lord of the Rings instalment would have also set the record. The Star Wars franchise would have set the record another two times (in additional to the original). Etc.
From Jurassic Park’s worldwide record in 1993 onwards:
(*All original run grosses only; films that didn't, but would have set the record, are in blue)
Jurassic Park (1993) — $914,691,118 (actual record holder prior to Titanic’s whopping % increase)
Titanic (1997) — $1,843,201,268
The Phantom Menace (1999) — $924,317,558
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone (2001) — $974,755,371
Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (2003) — $1,118,888,979
Avatar (2009) — $2,749,064,328
Transformers: Dark Side of the Moon (2011) — $1,123,794,079
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (2011) — $1,341,511,219
Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — $1,518,812,988
Jurassic World (2015) — $1,671,713,208
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015) — $2,068,223,624
Avengers: Endgame (2019) — $2,188,698,638 (will be the current record holder; on its way to surpassing Avatar worldwide)
Peace,
Mike
I don't think TF3 would have ever held the record. DH2 beat it to 1B, so it would've gone straight from ROTK to DH2.
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What if, just what if, the MTW scenario is like TFA where all three days saw roughly the same number of people attend and Wednesday gives us an increase from Tuesday? Does anyone else think it's a possibility?
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What are the odds the movie finishes with something like 850/2000/2850, becoming WW champion, TFA stays DOM champion, and Avatar stays OS champion?
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Just bought tickets for Round 2 tonight in IMAX 2D on a whim simply because my friends told me they were going to see it again. I think walk up business (or I guess non-presale business) will still be pretty strong.
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So what are we looking at for final overseas total? Is $1.5B locked? "Only" a $130m increase from AIW seems simple enough at this point.
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Part of me wants this movie to outgross Civil War, but part of me wants it to do between 1B and 1.1B so every MCU movie over 1B is in a different 100M range.
(1.0 CM, 1.1 CW, 1.2 IM3, 1.3 BP, 1.4 AOU, 1.5 TA, 2.0 IW)
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I dunno if anyone has talked about it, but are we actually expecting International Women's Day to have a big effect on Friday? It's not like people get work off for it or anything, and anecdotally, a lot of people I know don't even know it's a thing. I don't think IWD will have any noticeable effect on Friday, and I don't think that CW will be any more or less frontloaded because of it. What are your thoughts?
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On 2/14/2017 at 8:08 PM, Gokai Red said:
1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi, 220/770/1570
2. Beauty and The Beast, 140/450/1070
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, 160/400/1000
4. The Fate of the Furious, 130/305/1155
5. Spider-Man: Homecoming, 115/305/875
6. Justice League, 140/300/850
7. Despicable Me 3, 100/290/1040
8. Thor: Ragnarok, 100/260/810
9. Wonder Woman, 90/240/740
10. War for the Planet of the Apes, 80/215/715
(Ranked by DOM total)
Sorry for necrobumping, but I realized I never graded myself on 2017.
Green text indicates I got the prediction within 10%, Yellow text indicates that I got the prediction within 10-20%, Red text indicates that I got the prediction wrong more than 20%
1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi, 220 (Perfect)/770 (+24%)/1570 (+18%)
2. Beauty and The Beast, 140 (-20%)/450 (-11%)/1070 (-15%)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, 160 (+9%)/400 (+7%)/1000 (+16%)
4. The Fate of the Furious, 130 (+32%)/305 (+35%)/1155 (-7%)
5. Spider-Man: Homecoming, 115 (-2%)/305 (-9%)/875 (-1%)
6. Justice League, 140 (+49%)/300 (+31%)/850 (+29%)
7. Despicable Me 3, 100 (+38%)/290 (+10%)/1040 (+1%)
8. Thor: Ragnarok, 100 (-19%)/260 (-17%)/810 (-5%)
9. Wonder Woman, 90 (-13%)/240 (-42%)/740 (-10%)
10. War for the Planet of the Apes, 80 (+42%)/215 (+46%)/715 (+46%)
Not predicted: Jumanji and It.
Verdict: I still suck at predictions.
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Rank. Movie - WW/DOM/OS
All numbers rounded to the nearest 25th, and presented in Millions of Dollars
If there is a tie in the WW gross, then the DOM gross is used as the tiebreaker
1. Avengers: Endgame - 1925/625/1300
2. The Lion King - 1400/600/800
3. Frozen 2 - 1300/450/850
4. Star Wars: Episode IX - 1250/600/650
5. Spider-Man: Far From Home - 1025/375/650
6. Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw - 1000/200/800
7. Toy Story 4 - 975/350/625
8. Jumanji 3 - 925/350/575
9. Captain Marvel - 900/375/525
10. The Secret Life of Pets 2 - 900/325/575
First year where the entire Top 10 breaks $900M
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On 12/16/2018 at 5:35 PM, IronJimbo said:
The projections or the Avatar sequels made me laugh out loud at how ridiculous they are.
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Alright then friends. I know I don't post much, but when I do, it's for good reason. Today is my last day at home and on this forum for a few months, because tomorrow morning I am leaving for the Basic Training for the Air Force.
I've been a member on this forum since late 2013 (I still remember finding this site by looking for Catching Fire predictions, and I still remember this site's prediction for it was 167/390) and since then, I've been on it almost daily reading what everyone else has to say about my favorite things, box office and numbers. I love this site because (pretty much) everyone here has such a positive attitude and we're so much more knowledgeable about box office than any other site or source I know of (seriously, some people that write about box office for a living are trash, but I go here and even though everyone has their bad predictions, they're still a lot better than what some of the "professionals" do and it's awesome).
Anyways though, I'll miss this forum and its members while I'm gone, so I hope you keep your conversations civil and your predictions and projections strong. I'll be back around August, and I can't wait to see how this forum has been while I'm gone.
Happy posting everyone. Have a good summer!
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7 minutes before my Solo show time and there's about 13 other people in the auditorium with my friend and I.
Looking at show times, between 6 and 730, there was a show starting every 15 minutes.
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Interestingly enough, Avengers' gross today is roughly identical to Titanic's original run gross before the re-release.
AIW: 601.4/1239.7/1841.1
Titanic: 600.8/1242.4/1843.2
Just a fun bit of trivia.
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Avatar is the highest grossing film of all time, but its only impact on culture has been to be confused with the Nickelodeon cartoon of the same name.
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Before the year starts
1. Avengers: Infinity War, 210/500/1550
2. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, 180/470/1420
3. The Incredibles 2, 140/450/950
4. Solo: A Star Wars Story, 140/380/800
5. Black Panther, 115/350/800
6. Deadpool, 120/300/750
7. The Grinch, 75/270/680
8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindlewald, 95/260/880
9. Ant-Man and the Wasp, 75/220/620
10. Mary Poppins Returns, 45/210/510
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This reply is a little late, but I feel like it has to be said. I've been here on BOT for about 4 years now, since the craziness of the Catching Fire/Frozen runs. And I've been following box office for almost 10 years now (Cloverfield was the movie that got me into following movies and box office). But when I came here, I posted every once in a while, learning what I could, asking questions, comparing movies, what have you. And it's always great seeing new posters and movies break out and break records, and it's sometimes even fun to see a movie underperform and the meltdowns that ensue.
But why are the some of the newest people here, or people that apparently haven't followed box office for so long going onto these forums, trying to be the loudest in the room, being disrespectful to our mods and our senior members, and doubting Rth and Empire? Especially this last part. It really grinds my gears seeing people go into someone else's community and act like they run the show. Ask questions, please. I love discussion, but there's a reason our two sources get 20+ likes every time they post numbers, because they know, and we all know they know. 99% of the time, they're right within 5%, if not less. We're lucky they even give us anything, and it's good to see people that are actually a part of the industry on the inside care enough to share their information with us.
And I'm not trying to single out any of the current new members, but in general, I've seen this happen frequently every time there's a new big movie that causes an influx of new members, there's always a few that like to come in and be disrespectful. We're all here because we care about movies and box office, so why not try to make it a pleasant experience for everyone?
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The movie's OS has been adjusted down to 1010.0 M
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I know it's been a while, but here we go!
Wonder Woman
Current Gross: $412, 265, 643
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $388, 573, 980 SURPASSED
Quadruple Century Mark: $400, 000, 000 SURPASSED
Spider-Man: $403, 706, 375 SURPASSED
Iron Man 3 (Top 5 CBM): $409, 013, 994 SURPASSED
4x Multiplier: $413, 005, 884 ($740, 241 remaining)
Spider-Man: Homecoming
Current Gross: $332, 707, 249
The Amazing Spider-Man 2: $202, 853, 933 SURPASSED
The Amazing Spider-Man: $262, 030, 663 SURPASSED
Triple Century Mark: $300, 000, 000 SURPASSED
Guardians of the Galaxy (highest non-sequel MCU): $333, 176, 600 ($469, 351 remaining)
Spider-Man 3: $336, 530, 303 ($3, 823, 054 remaining)
Dunkirk
Current Gross: $186, 881, 004
Get Out (highest original film 2017): $175, 484, 140 SURPASSED
Interstellar: $188, 020, 017 ($19, 139, 013 remaining)
IT
Current Gross: $290, 775, 232
The Sixth Sense: $293, 506, 292 ($2, 731, 060 remaining)
Triple Century Mark: $300, 000, 000 ($9, 224, 768 remaining)
Spider-Man: Homecoming: $332, 707, 249 ($41, 932, 017 remaining)
Red Text indicates that the milestone in question is a stationary target. Blue Text indicates that the milestone in question is a moving target.
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It's been a while...
Wonder Woman
Current Gross: $412, 265, 643
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $388, 573, 980 SURPASSED
Quadruple Century Mark: $400, 000, 000 SURPASSED
Spider-Man: $403, 706, 375 SURPASSED
Iron Man 3 (Top 5 CBM): $409, 013, 994 SURPASSED
4x Multiplier: $413, 005, 884 ($740, 241 remaining)
Spider-Man: Homecoming
Current Gross: $332, 707, 249
The Amazing Spider-Man 2: $202, 853, 933 SURPASSED
The Amazing Spider-Man: $262, 030, 663 SURPASSED
Triple Century Mark: $300, 000, 000 SURPASSED
Guardians of the Galaxy (highest non-sequel MCU): $333, 176, 600 ($469, 351 remaining)
Spider-Man 3: $336, 530, 303 ($3, 823, 054 remaining)
Dunkirk
Current Gross: $186, 881, 004
Get Out (highest original film 2017): $175, 484, 140 SURPASSED
Interstellar: $188, 020, 017 ($19, 139, 013 remaining)
IT
Current Gross: $290, 775, 232
The Sixth Sense: $293, 506, 292 ($2, 731, 060 remaining)
Triple Century Mark: $300, 000, 000 ($9, 224, 768 remaining)
Spider-Man: Homecoming: $332, 707, 249 ($41, 932, 017 remaining)
Red Text indicates that the milestone in question is a stationary target. Blue Text indicates that the milestone in question is a moving target.
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I thought the first Pacific Rim was seen as a good fun summer blockbuster. Why the sudden hate for it?
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Wonder Woman, SMH, Dunkirk, and Annabelle Countdowns going into the weekend. The next movie I'll probably track is It, so I might update less frequently until then.
Wonder Woman
Current Gross: $404, 518, 061
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $388, 573, 980 SURPASSED
Quadruple Century Mark: $400, 000, 000 SURPASSED
Spider-Man: $403, 706, 375 SURPASSED
Iron Man 3 (Top 5 CBM): $409, 013, 994 ($4, 495, 933 remaining)
4x Multiplier: $413, 005, 884 ($8, 487, 823 remaining)
Spider-Man: Homecoming
Current Gross: $316, 118, 082
The Amazing Spider-Man 2: $202, 853, 933 SURPASSED
The Amazing Spider-Man: $262, 030, 663 SURPASSED
Triple Century Mark: $300, 000, 000 SURPASSED
Guardians of the Galaxy (highest non-sequel MCU): $333, 176, 600 ($17, 058, 518 remaining)
Spider-Man 3: $336, 530, 303 ($20, 412, 221 remaining)
Dunkirk
Current Gross: $168, 529, 030
Get Out (highest original film 2017): $175, 484, 140 ($6, 955, 110 remaining)
Interstellar: $188, 020, 017 ($19, 490, 987 remaining)
Batman Begins: $206, 852, 432 ($38, 323, 402 remaining)
Annabelle: Creation
Current Gross: $70, 530, 384
Annabelle: $84, 273, 813 ($13, 743, 429 remaining)
The Conjuring 2: $102, 470, 008 ($31, 939, 624 remaining)
Red Text indicates that the milestone in question is a stationary target. Blue Text indicates that the milestone in question is a moving target.
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Tuesday (7/16) Numbers
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Not quite yet. AWE is at $654.0m OS and $963.4m WW, according to BOM.