Gokai Red
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Posts posted by Gokai Red
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I see a decrease, but not the dramatic levels and doom and gloom that everyone seems to be predicting. I see maybe 55/135
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11 minutes ago, DAJK said:
Oh and congrats everyone to 10 000 posts in this thread
10,000 posts in a thread isn't really a big deal when half of them are quadruple posts by one guy.
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I remember 2014 being the year where China bashing became cool, mostly cause of TF4. When TF4 came out, everyone loved to bash on China and its poor taste and questioned how they could carry such a "bad" film to record breaking numbers, when a mere month beforehand, everyone was so happy that the Chinese market was expanding, carrying movies like DOFP and CATWS to large numbers.
Nostalgia has blinded so much of this forum when it comes to SW and the amount of money it makes. Obviously nostalgia is not the only factor in how much SW, quality plays a part as well, but TPM's performance suggests that TFA would have cruised past 600m DOM even if it was a bad movie. But China has no reason to care for SW the same way DOM or the rest of western world has. To them, it's just another Sci Fi flick, and there's enough of those out there, but this one has some required viewing beforehand. Let's keep in mind though, TFA is still doing respectable numbers in China, even if they're not record breaking. Imagine the seventh film in a Chinese series being released in America and going on to gross 200m DOM. Nothing to scoff at. I'm sure Disney doesn't care that China's gross might be a little bit less than expectations when they have only the third 2 billion dollar movie of all time, 5 guaranteed billion dollar grossers within the next five years, and tens of billions of dollars in merchandise coming in for the next decade and beyond.
It's all about perspective.
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This sounds way too good to be true. Cloverfield was the movie that got me into following the box office and movies, so it does hold a special place in my heart. I really hope that some of those questions that the first one raised are finally answered.
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Really though, if they could get Shia back (or at least Tyrese and Josh), I feel like this film might actually have some relevance DOM. I'd say possibilities for 300+ DOM with Shia back, and 250+ with Tyrese and Josh.
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9 minutes ago, DamienRoc said:
Uhh...
You could also argue against JW because JP3 happened between it and TLW. I know people don't LIKE it, but still. It did happen.
You are right. I misread the list. I would remove that entry from the list, however, I can't seem to edit my previous post right now...
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As far as mega blockbusters go (where the previous installment grossed 400m adjusted or more) DOM-wise, there are only a handful of occasions where the sequel outgrossed the previous one. Here's all the ones that I could find, listed in reverse chronological order from the release of the sequel:
ROTS to TFA (510.8 to whatever TFA makes)
TLWJP to JW (429.7 to 680.6)
THG to CF (437.9 to 440.1)
TS2 to TS3 (411.9 to 449.6)
COTBA to DMC (436.1 to 556.5)
AOTC to ROTS (447.8 to 510.8)
Shrek to Shrek 2 (407.2 to 611.7)
TTT to ROTK (493.3 to 529.8)
FOTR to TTT (467.0 to 493.3)
ROTJ to TPM (697.3 to 730.4)
ESB to ROTJ (679.0 to 697.3)
TB to GF (570.8 to 644.0)
Honorable Mention:
TF to ROTF (399.5 to 464.1)
Arguments could be made against TFA, JW, TS3, and TPM belonging on the list considering the gap between installments, and against CF considering how close the two are; CF could very well be below THG in attendance.
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It's amazing how the DOM and OS grosses have been matching each other so well so far.
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Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, 160/500
Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice, 200/470
Captain America: Civil War, 185/470
Finding Dory, 130/450
Zootopia, 75/275
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, 110/270
X-Men: Apocalypse, 100/260
Moana, 70/250
Independence Day: Resurgence, 90/250
Doctor Strange, 80/220
The Force Awakens has entirely changed the predictions for Rogue One. Most people seemed to be predicting 300-400 for it, now 400+ almost seems like a foregone conclusion. I personally had it at 140/400 before TFA hit.
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So with this number, is the movie still on track to beat Jurassic World on or before December 31?
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I would also like to join the game if it's not too late. This sounds really interesting.
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2 hours ago, FilmBuff said:
Vader showed up at our showing last night.
Which Warren is this? Because if this is Wichita, I actually work up there!
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I was honestly a nonbeliever in the OW record going down this weekend, but I'm glad I was wrong. These numbers are incredible.
On the subject of a movie beating this movie, I honestly don't think any movie will for at least a decade or more, by which inflation will win out. The demographics are simply too big. All of the movies adjust to over 400m first run, and when inflation and 3D are accounted for, all of the movies comfortably gross 500m or more. There is no other brand that has such recognition and brandpower that also invokes the nostalgia level to the degree that Star Wars does. As JW has shown us this year, nostalgia can be a very effective selling point. Lastly, when Avengers and JW broke the OW records when they did, theaters were "found with their pants down" as I have seen some other posters refer to it as; they were not expecting Avengers and JW to be in such high demand throughout the entire weekend and were thus unable to schedule an appropriate number of shows. This allowed their drops within the weekend and to the next weekend be comparatively low considering the massive numbers involved. For TFA, it was different though; everyone was expecting something huge, and so all the theaters were fully prepared for the storm that struck.
Because of this, I believe that whatever Star Wars: Episode VII: The Force Awakens makes this weekend to be the limit, or very close to the limit, of how much a film can make in one weekend. So I don't think this record will be broken for a very long time, and when it does, inflation will play a very large role. For the next several years however, I firmly believe this as high as we can go domestically.
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This will be the Iron Man 3 to The Force Awakens' Avengers.
I'm predicting 180/700/1550 for TFA and 140/400/1200 for RO.
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180 OW
700 DOM
1550 WW
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All of the HP movies would probably adjust to 850/900+ with market expansion/China/3D, so I could see this easily surpassing 800 OS if marketed properly. WB has some of the best marketing around so it could easily happen. For now though, my personal prediction is 800m, 150 of which coming from China.
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Wait a second...
May 2002 = $114,844,166 by a Marvel movie
May 2007 = $151,116,516 by a Marvel movie
May 2012 = $207,438,708 by a Marvel movie
May 2017 = $25x,xxx,xxx? by a Marvel movie
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 250m+ OW confirmed.
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5 minutes ago, department store basement said:
That's true, I was referring to OW, which FTF was talking about - Hobbit 3 had a $20m OW dropoff from 2.
BOFA had a Wednesday release, burning off demand for 2 days. Not the same situation.
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Nice to see some perspective. I wonder how much DH2 would have made in today's blockbuster climate.
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This forum just keeps milking those Minions records.
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Hopefully this bodes well for its chances of passing 1B. I had it at around 250/700 before release. Is that looking likely?
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Doom and gloom coming from one number right after a weekend where everyone was praising the movie? Quite impressive.
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Amazing run all in all. Universal is at the top of the world this year. Following this movie's run has been extremely fun.
Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
While I'm predicting 2b+ for Avatar 2, I can't help but entertain the idea that what if, just what if, it is true that no one wants or cars for a sequel and it ends up falling flat on its face. I wonder what the plan for Avatar 3 and 4 would be in that case. It would probably be the funniest thing to ever happen to this forum just watching the meltdowns.