Gokai Red
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Posts posted by Gokai Red
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So based on how previous CW updates have gone (great estimate leads to high expectations, then the actual comes out a little bit lower than expected, disappointing everyone), the actual for CW will probably be 30-31. Calling it now (although I'd love to be wrong).
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Really mad at myself for upping my prediction from 180/450 to 200/500...
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11 hours ago, jiangsen said:
April 2015 - 4.09B RMB
April 2016 - 3.11B RMB (- 24%)
Biggest YOY monthly drop in recent history
Does this mean that the market growth is finally starting to slow down, or is it mostly just a testament to how big F7 was?
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This movie's OS gross has just been slowly and slowly been being bumped up little by little every few months. They should just bring it over Avengers just to get it over with at this point. Unless it really is about to end its run less than a million away from Avengers, in which case...
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On 12/15/2015 at 11:14 PM, Gokai Red said:
This will be the Iron Man 3 to The Force Awakens' Avengers.
I'm predicting 180/700/1550 for TFA and 140/400/1200 for RO.
Changing my prediction to 175/550/1400. I feel like that multiplier is too low (3.143 vs TFA's 3.774), but I just can't bring myself to predict such massive numbers like 600+. It just doesn't feel right.
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3 minutes ago, Chewy said:
Winter Soldier was April
Always think it was May for some reason. I call myself a Marvel fan and I keep forgetting when all of their movies were released
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4 hours ago, eddyxx said:
Captain Marvel is in March 2019
I always forget this, since Marvel has never opened a movie before May before (not count BP, which also hasn't been released yet).
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I wonder what will get the current date though, since I'm sure IW2 won't be the only Marvel movie in 2019.
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Holy... These drops have been brutal.
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High 170s, low 180s looks to be where this is going for the weekend if it lands on the higher end of RTH's projection.
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My 6pm crowd was not as hype as I though it would either. The reviews might have had something to do with it. But overall, my theater seemed to enjoy it a lot. I live in Kansas, so every time something Kansas-related was said or showed up on screen, I heard slight chuckles. Theater was sold out, with a 645 showing getting ready as well. I think this movie will do low-mid 20m in previews.
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Dat China appeal tho. Them box office numbers too sexy to resist.
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The Marvel/DC (and SW) gap will be bridged in China soon enough. DC just needs more brand exposure there, just as Marvel had to go through.
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With MTA/IM3 exchange rates, I would easily say 850-900m. With the rates as they currently are, 750m is also my guess. Although 2015 has shown us record breaking numbers even with the poor exchange rate, so who even knows anymore.
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Late start to the game, but I'll invest 75% into Amityville.
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I haven't read the spoilers, but this talk of this movie not being a Cloverfield sequel is disappointing to me. The original is the film that got me into following box office, and I remember going through the viral marketing for it, which was amazing, and hoping for years now, for the sequel. I'll go, because of my love for the original, and hopefully I'll end up liking the movie for what it is, but I was really hoping to see those lingering plot threads resolved.
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17 minutes ago, Olive said:
Mermaid will have another 3-month extended run...
So maybe beating TDK's $534.9m is possible?
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Does The Mermaid have enough gas in the tank to pass TDK's $534.9m? Or will it probably end below that? Either way, this is a remarkable run and we're truly entering a new box office era.
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Lolololololololol at Spectre's slow painful crawl to 200m.
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I think it's safe to say that China will have a 1B (USD) film before DOM will at this point. TFA had a perfect storm of factors and will finish around 935-950, which is an amazing number of course, but the DOM market is largely stagnant. Yes, we have up years like 2012, 13 and 15, but China's market is still growing, and still at a very rapid pace. It's looking extremely likely that China's highest grossing film in 2016 will outgross DOM's highest grossing 2016 film, and China is still growing. Yeah we can argue Avatar or Star Wars sequels, but we know sequels to mega-blockbusters decrease DOM, so it's looking highly unlikely any film within the next 5-10 years can do it. It is almost a mathematical certainty that China will reach 1B before DOM does it.
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I'll admit I was one of the people thinking this would only be a modest hit (I predicted 60m for the 4 day) and quickly die out. While we have yet to see how this movie will hold, I'm definitely glad it's breaking out. And they said "superhero fatigue" is a thing. If anything, this just shows how powerful the superhero "genre" is.
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And without DOM, SW made 1.1B and F7 made 1.16B. The hate that China gets on these boards is ridiculous. We can argue about exchange rates and inflation and market growth all the live long day, but money is money is money, regardless of where it came from.
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450 DOM, 750 OS, 1200 WW.
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Disney has nothing to be worried about as far as release dates go. SW has proven it's the biggest kid on the block by far, and at this point, Avatar would have much more to lose going head to head with SW than SW would going against Avatar, so if Disney does decide that SW becomes a December thing, Fox better find a new place for Avatar.
Weekend Actuals (Page 67): Captain Pirate: Piracy War 72.6M | Jungle Book 17.1M | Money Monster 14.8M | The Darkness 5M | Mother's Day 3.3M
in Numbers and Data
Posted
I like this reference