It's not fanboyism to expect it to outgross ROTK, given a decade of inflation, 3D and market expansion. To match Avengers perhaps but still you can make the case for it without sounding like a total idiot. What i overestimated was the level of excitement over the return to Middle Earth no matter what. The movie didn't look as good as LOTR, the tone was different, and many people stayed away as a result.