BadAtGender

Hey! Two bonuses! Awesome. Kinda going out with a bang, though. It's not like it's going to make a difference, right? *scans scores* Umm... what? Holy shit! Except, wait, you don't mean.... God DAMMIT, Tele! One fucking thousand? That's it? There was that week where Baumer said that 1k wouldn't make a difference, and now look at this shit! So close. Yet so painfully far. But seriously, that's pretty awesome. I admittedly played very conservative with the SOTMs and the preseason. And there were some super bad weeks in there. But it was fun, and I can't be disappointed with a top ten finish, especially after languishing around the middle of the pack for a huge portion of the game. Congrats to the winners. (Is there any chance we'll see a full breakdown of the preseason predictions beyond the top ten for each?)

Its success isn't really continent on Bird.

I fully expect that DiCaprio's performance will be the linchpin of the entire film. The one thing that holds it all together and makes it work. And then the film will win every Oscar it's up for EXCEPT Best Actor.

Especially Star Wars. If Abrams had Miller's ability to include callbacks to the original films without beating the nostalgia over your head, that'd be one thing, but he's shown no ability to be that restrained. Star Wars will be fun, sure. But great? Nah, man. I'm super skeptical.

I give myself a 60% chance of thinking "why am I not watching MMFR instead" at least once during the film.

1) Will No Escape have a Friday increase of more than 110%? 1000 YES 2) Will Sinister 2 drop on Sunday? 1000 YES 3) Will MI5 increase on Thursday? 1000 YES 4) Will Transporter do more than 750K for previews? 1000 NO 5) Will The Gift make more than Ant Man? 1000 NO 6) Will Transporter be number one on Monday? 1000 NO 7) Will Gopher and Tele still strongly dislike Jurassic World? 1000 YES 8) Will Compton drop less than 0% on Sunday? 1000 YES 7/8 2000 8/8 4000 What finishes in spots 3 War Room 7 The Man from UNCLE 9 Jurassic World 11 Hitman: Agent 47 1000 each 2000 bonus for all 4 spots right And one final bonus worth 5000 points: What will be the best percentage increase on Sunday? I don't want the film, just the number....to three decimal points. 12.831%

1) Will Compton win the 4 day? YES 2) Will Transporter win the three day? NO 3) Will A Walk in the Woods make at least 5 million for the three day weekend? YES 4) Will any film drop less than 13% on Monday? YES 5) Will more than 7 films increase on Sunday? YES 6) Will any film increase more than 165% on Friday? YES 7) Will We are your Friends drop more than 40%? NO 8) Will Jurassic World drop less than 15%? YES 9) Will any film drop less than 10%? YES 10) Will Rogue Nation make more than War Room? YES 11) Will Minions drop less than Ant-Man? YES 12) Will any film drop more than 27% on Thursday? YES 10/12 3000 11/12 5000 12/12 7000 What finishes in spots: 1 Straight Outta Compton 2 Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation 5 The Transporter: Refueled 6 No Escape 10 Sinister 2 2000 each spot right 4000 bonus if all 5 right Bonus 1: What will Jurassic World be at WW according to Rentrak, by the time Sunday numbers are released? 10,000 1,649,756,000 Bonus 2: What will The Gift make for the 4 day? 10,000 2.637 Bonus 3: What will the combined weekend 4 day gross be of Hitman, Compton and Uncle? 10,000 18.398

We are no longer friends. I have to maintain consistency. (More seriously, very little about the book sounds appealing to me.)

From all my friends who have read it, I haven't heard a single recommendation to actually pick it up.

Hey, top twenty. Still 21k points behind Tele.

Oops. Totally forgot the questions this week.

Well, so much for this movie being worth the time.

Only to Americans.

The third Asterix movie had a budget of about 110m. It did pretty well, getting about 130m total (mostly, I think, from European markets.) I'd guess that the hope here is that this plays equally well in Europe but also has gets traction in Asia. The US gross is probably not going to be make-or-break for it in comparison.

Yes. I checked it out from the library last month.

Eh, no. Ant-Man is better.

KFP3 is a co-production, so the DWA take could be slightly higher than that. Probably not the 50% that's roughly the norm elsewhere, but somewhere between the two. Also, if it does 200m in China, that will be a massive disappointment. It should get upwards of 300m, and north of 400m won't be too big a surprise.

6) 21 Jump Street Before I go for the second part, I'd like to see the updated standings.

1) Will any opener break 15 million? NO 2) Will SOC fall less than 62%? YES 3) Will Sinister be the largest grossing film of the openers? NO 4) Will Man From UNCLE fall more than 45%? NO 5) Will Hitman make more than American Ultra? NO 6) Will Ant-Man and Minions both fall less than 40%? YES 7) Will FF stay in the top 10? YES 8) Will FF drop more than 60%? NO 9) Will Rogue Nation gross more than at least two of the openers? YES 10) Will any film increase more than 100% on Friday? YES 11) Will any film increase more than 50% on Saturday? YES 12) Will Vacation decrease more than 7% on Thursday? YES 10/12 3000 11/12 5000 12/12 7000 What finishes in spots 2 American Ultra 3 Mission Imposible: Rogue Nation 4 Sinister 2 5 The Man from UNCLE 7 Ant-Man 2000 each 5000 bonus if all 5 correct Bonus 1: What will Compton make on Saturday? 5000 11.375 Bonus 2: What will Minions drop % wise this weekend...3 decimal spots... 5000 31.438

That's not something that just Inside Out. For the most part, animated films don't perform especially well overseas unless they're a sequel. This is true for Dreamworks, Pixar, Blue Sky, etc. Here's the jump in OS gross from first to second films in various series. DM 291m to 602m. HTTYD 277m to 441m. Shrek 216m to 478m. Cars 216m to 368m. Ice Age 206m to 465m. Basically you can expect a huge jump for a sequel. But you need to have the creative space to develop said sequel AND there has to be enough financial support for the first film to justify it. IO has had a relatively weak OS gross compared to its US take. But that doesn't mean it's a bad performance. If IO had done a Pixar typical 230m DOM and gotten another 370m OS, people would have said that's a perfectly fine performance. The fact that the US has overperformed by 50% compared to such an expectation doesn't mean that it's bad because the OS didn't do the same.

Okay, fair. Actually, given how much Baumer goes for 80s-era stuffs, it's a bit surprising he's lukewarm on MMFR.

New trailer seemed a bit spoileriffic.

I don't think that's tricky to answer, either.

Loss of 3D share and China, respectively.

Unknown, but some possible standouts: Blair Witch Project went from 1,101 (third weekend, first wide) to 2,142 to 2,412, to 2,538 (sixth weekend) before declining. Paranormal Activity went from 760 (fourth weekend, first wide) to 1,945 to 2,404, to 2,558, to 2,712 (eighth weekend). It declined thereafter. Titanic didn't have a big single expansion, but it started with 2,674 theaters in weekend one and then kept adding them over the next fifteen weekends. It actually hit its widest saturation in April, with 3,265 theaters. Borat opened to 837 theaters. It expanded to 2,566 in weekend 2. Fahrenheit 9/11 went from 868 to 1,725 to 2,011.