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Murgatroyd

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Posts posted by Murgatroyd

  1. Looks like a 2nd weekend just a tad above 8 millions. While that's about in line with the average early expectations, it's a really wonderful hold as every other holdover dropped quite hard. Weekdays have also been much higher than expected.

     

    A possible projection:

    *TS3 reached on Friday night or Saturday morning

    *3rd weekend between 7 and 8 millions // 50M total

    *4th weekend around 6 millions // 68M total

    *post-Spring Break drop in the 30's, weak dailies for 3 weeks // 85M or so before Obon starts

    *Obon boost // 95M by the first weekend of May, T3 overtaken

    *quick drops afterwards, 105M total

     

    I assume you mean Golden Week, rather than Obon.  The latter seems like it's a bit too far in the future.

  2. TOHO(biggest theatre chain in Japan) Saturday Showtimes

    Movie---Showtimes---seats

    Frozen -------278---------92,154

    Doraemon---156---------41,103(last Saturday:164---59,514)

    Smaug-------113---------19,015(last Saturday:137---28,288)

    Robocop--- 130---------21,655

     

    If the part I've highlighted is typical of all theaters, and if the same portion of the seats actually sell, we'd be looking at a ~$9M opening weekend.  I don't know how accurate those assumptions are, or how the Friday opening will affect things.

  3. Yeah, it's released every year in March. Apparently since 1980.

     

    In other words, it's working with a fixed potential audience. The big Doraemon fans would have seen it no matter what, and the moderate fans are seeing it because they've heard this one's good.  It's not actually competing for audience share, so is unlikely to have a big effect on anything else.

  4. Saw it in 3D a few times, but unless Disney announced a domestic 3D Blu-ray, I might not get the chance to again... at least not anytime soon.

     

    Luckily, I think they're just hold back an announcement for a fall release.

     

    I really did enjoy seeing it in 3D though. Of the 3D I've seen in films, I think I enjoyed it in Frozen and Tron: Legacy the most. The rest I've seen were good... impressive even... but I don't think they brought their worlds to life like those two did. It's a shame Disney and Lucasfilm are sitting on finished conversions of Clones and Sith...

     

     

    I've seen Frozen in 3D all but a couple of showings. Most showings are still 3D here, only 1 early show is in 2D.

    The 3D in Frozen is among the best, I think I'd only put Avatar's 3D higher. Every single scene in Avatar was crafted to use 3D to its full potential and it was shot as 3D, the movie is almost unwatchable in 2D.

    3D in Frozen is beautiful, and used to near perfection, and I rarely like 3D since I usually feel it's just a money grab that adds very little to the movie, especially "converted" 3D. I see a ton of movies every year and since Avatar I'd say I've been truly happy with the 3D in maybe 4 or 5 movies.

     

    My all-time favorite use of 3D would have to be Coraline.  Stereoscopic 3D combined with forced perspective can have very interesting results.

     

    Frozen's 3D (which was available only the first time I watched it) was nice, but I don't feel like I'm missing anything in 2D.

  5. To put things in perspective for Japan:

    In all of history, 25 movies have made over $100M there. (Unadjusted gross in yen, converted at today's exchange rate).

    9 have made over $150M.

    2 have made over $200M.  One of those is Titanic, at $256M.  The other is Spirited Away, at $297M.

     

    Unless you're predicting that it will do even more spectacularly well in Japan than anywhere else in the world, 100-150M should be the top of your range.

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