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Rsyu

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    Frozen OS thread

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    You just answered your own question. LOTR and Narnia are based on well-known books, and MU, FN, TS3 have Pixar brand. Frozen is an original animated film. So without the hype from worldwide success, Let It Go & soundtrack popularity, and Oscars, Frozen would have opened lower (may around half) than it actually did in March. Yes with December release legs would have probably been better, but with smaller OW, wouldn't it be the same or even lower in the end? For example, $4m OW with 15x multiplier will give it $60m total, but $7m OW with smaller 10x multiplier will give it $70m. Which one is better?

    As les miserables has proven, if the WoM is strong enough legs can go above and beyond expectations. Also I disagree that OW for frozen would have been much lower in december. WoM was great back then too and in a country as wired as Japan, WoM spreads extremely fast. Also Frozen opened in SK on Jan 16th and it literally exploded. A country that was indifferent to disney and animations in general managed to gross the highest OS to date. Now imagine that in a country with twice the population, loves animation and has traditionally long legs with great multipliers in december.

    Frozen OS thread

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    According to Corpse, this is not a bad release date at all. On the contrary, it may be the best option available: late opening to let the buzz and hype rise, and two holidays coming within 45 days. WIR increased by 4% and Doreamon by 7% last year on the same weekend, thanks to the holiday. So my prediction is 7.5/8.0M. Anything under 7 would be disappointing and probably a sign of frontloadness. Sub-7.5 would give me a 'meh', too. 'Awesome Land' is above 8.5M.

    I know about golden week but it's at the end of april. What/'s the second holiday?

    Frozen OS thread

    in International Box Office

    Posted · Edited by Rsyu

    LOTR probably has a different demo to disney princess films, I'm thinking it skews much older which means holiday effect will be much less important. Narnia was an adaption of a very well known and popular book. Frozen is an original animated film albeit with huge global WoM, but original animation nonetheless, which probably means it would have performed much better in december. Not saying it did bad mind you, because it's the highest grossing OW for an animated film outside of ghibli/pixar/franchise but just think dec would have been the better month for a release. The highest grossing pixar films MU, FN, TS3 were released in july/dec too.According to corpse, july/dec has the best multipliers in the year.

    Frozen OS thread

    in International Box Office

    Posted · Edited by Rsyu

    Just one question: Les miserable opens around 3.56m  but ends up in around 60m.

    How did this film achieve it ?  Normally, a film OW 3.56m  is estimated to be 32m at most.

     

    Les miserables was more the exception than the rule. It was the second best run after avatar.

     

    Corpse

    Weekend (Rank) / Gross (% change) / Total Gross (% change) / Multiplier

    1. Avatar (2010)

    First Weekend (1st): ¥597.3 million / ¥1.31 billion

    Second Weekend (1st): ¥678.8 million (+12%) / ¥3.24 billion (+247%) / 5.42x

    Third Weekend (1st): ¥636.8 million (-6%) / ¥4.67 billion (+44%) / 7.82x

    Fourth Weekend (1st): ¥510.1 million (-20%) / ¥5.93 billion (+27%) / 9.93x

    Fifth Weekend (1st): ¥518.4 million (+2%) / ¥7.00 billion (+18%) / 11.73x

    Sixth Weekend (1st): ¥617.4 million (+19%) / ¥8.29 billion (+18%) / 13.88x

    Seventh Weekend (1st): ¥571.5 million (-7%) / ¥9.64 billion (+16%) / 16.15x

    Eighth Weekend (1st) :: ¥507.1 million (-11%) / ¥10.97 billion (+14%) / 18.37x

    2. Les Miserables (2013)

    First Weekend (2nd): ¥295.4 million / ¥379.1 million

    Second Weekend (2nd): ¥256.8 million (-13%) / ¥1.13 billion (+298%) / 3.83x

    Third Weekend (2nd): ¥287.1 million (+11%) / ¥2.11 billion (+87%) / 7.15x

    Fourth Weekend (2nd): ¥286.3 million (0%) / ¥2.75 billion (+30%) / 9.32x

    Fifth Weekend (2nd): ¥215.7 million (-25%) / ¥3.35 billion (+22%) / 11.36x 

    Sixth Weekend (4th): ¥159.6 million (-26%) / ¥3.77 billion (+13%) / 12.78x

    Seventh Weekend (5th): ¥142.6 million (-10%) / ¥4.18 billion (+11%) / 14.17x

    Eighth Weekend (6th): ¥147.8 million (+4%) / ¥4.52 billion (+8%) / 15.32x 

    3. Ponyo (2008)

    First Weekend (1st): ¥1.03 billion

    Second Weekend (1st): ¥805.7 million (-22%) / ¥3.23 billion (+312%) / 3.12x

    Third Weekend (1st): ¥776.5 million (-4%) / ¥5.26 billion (+63%) / 5.11x

    Fourth Weekend (1st): ¥755.3 million (-3%) / ¥7.21 billion (+37%) / 7.00x

    Fifth Weekend (1st): ¥851.3 million (+12%) / ¥9.94 billion (+38%) / 9.65x

    Sixth Weekend (1st): ¥577.2 million (-32%) / ¥11.49 billion (+16%) / 11.16x

    Seventh Weekend (3rd): ¥513.3 million (-11%) / ¥12.73 billion (+11%) / 12.35x

    Eighth Weekend (3rd): ¥378.1 million (-26%) / ¥13.44 billion (+6%) / 13.01x

    4. Confessions (2010)

    First Weekend (1st): ¥269.8 million

    Second Weekend (1st): ¥282.7 million (+4%) / ¥895 million (+332%) / 3.31x

    Third Weekend (1st): ¥286.9 million (+2%) / ¥1.55 billion (+73%) / 5.74x

    Fourth Weekend (1st): ¥289.4 million (+1%) / ¥2.16 billion (+39%) / 8.00x

    Fifth Weekend (2nd): ¥217.3 million (-24%) / ¥2.71 billion (+26%) / 10.03x

    Sixth Weekend (5th): ¥154.7 million (-29%) / ¥3.08 billion (+14%) / 11.41x

    Seventh Weekend (7th): ¥83.4 million (-46%) / ¥3.33 billion (+8%) / 12.33x

    Eighth Weekend (7th): ¥54.1 million (-35%) / ¥3.51 billion (+5%) / 13.00x

    5. Thermae Romae (2012)

    First Weekend (1st): ¥432.5 million

    Second Weekend (1st): ¥547.5 million (+21%) / ¥2.22 billion (+513%) / 5.13x

    Third Weekend (1st): ¥363.7 million (-34%) / ¥2.96 billion (+33%) / 6.84x

    Fourth Weekend (2nd): ¥330.0 million (-9%) / ¥3.66 billion (+24%) / 8.45x

    Fifth Weekend (2nd): ¥251.5 million (-24%) / ¥4.19 billion (+15%) / 9.68x

    Sixth Weekend (2nd): ¥203.6 million (-19%) / ¥4.65 billion (+11%) / 10.75x

    Seventh Weekend (3rd): ¥163.3 million (-20%) / ¥4.96 billion (+7%) / 11.47x

    Eighth Weekend (4th): ¥151.9 million (-7%) / ¥5.24 billion (+6%) / 12.11x

     

     

    I only found up to week 8 but you get the general idea of the kind of legs it had.

    • Like 2

    Frozen OS thread

    in International Box Office

    Posted · Edited by Rsyu

    Not quite $10m, but that is still a great opening, way bigger than I predicted before it opened! :D

     

    Agreed, for a non ghibli/pixar/franchise film that is one huge opening. it should do somewhere around $70M I think realistically. Hopefully more though :)

    Captain America: The Winter Soldier ( More than $700M WW, Huge Success!)

    in International Box Office

    Posted · Edited by Rsyu

    What's Cap's potential in some major Asian markets?I was a bit surprised of how well CA did (relatively) in Latin America. Hoping to see good increase for Cap2 there.

    Expect South Korea to increase significantly from the measly $3.8m it grossed for Ca:first avenger. Chris Evans stock has gone up alot here with his roles in 2 films in "snow piercer" and "the avengers" that were released after first avenger.Current pre-release ratings is 9.43 on Korea's biggest portal site Naver so people are pretty excited about it.
    • Like 5

    JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    anybody know what those plagiarism claims are about?

     

    I was interested in this too so I did a web search and came across this

     

    link: http://www.awesome-robo.com/2013/06/the-uncanny-resemblance-between-disneys.html

     

    I do see a similarity between the teaser and the animation shown in the website but that's it in my opinion. Olaf is nothing like the snowman in the said clip who looks really sad and gloomy. Anyway I'm not really sure if this is the plagiarism referred to, it seems like such a weak claim. It could be talking about some Japanese animation we know little about. 

    Frozen OS thread

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    I wonder if sing-alongs do well in Japan... or, if there haven't been many precedents, if musicals in general do well enough to think a sing-along would do well...

     

    Les miserables was the most recent hollywood musical film I think, and it grossed $62m (2nd highest OS market after UK)

    For phantom of the opera Japan was it's highest grossing OS market ($35m) and being the home of Karaoke you'd think Sing-along would do well there. However it remains to be seen whether such a format would work in theatres, since it failed miserably in south korea (musicals and karaoke are big here too) In any case if it is released it'll only be late on in their run I think & extending of legs is the most likely benefit we'll see if any. 

    Frozen OS thread

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    109サイト上映25分前贩売数：20140315）2014/03/1523:30109サイト上映25分前贩売数：20140315 （23:30 集计）贩売数　座席数　回数　作品名11254　27329　104　アナと雪の女王　【吹替】*6503　24119　*88　映画ドラえもん　２０１４*1869　*3240　*17　アナと雪の女王　【字幕】 Today 13123Yesterday 6826 Admissions

    Is that a different theater chain? It's smaller than the Toho theater number you posted earlier.

    South Korea Box Office

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    Overall increase in the size of South Korea's film market year to year can be seen here.

    For 2014 January and February, the attendance was similar as to 2013 while gross increased slightly compared to the same period last year. 2014 should continue the upward trend and increase from 2013. 

    Except for odd years, Korean movies tend to have more admissions and gross slightly more than foreign films which shows that local films are generally more popular in South Korea. 

     

    (Currency unit is Korean won)

     

    Posted Image

    • Like 2

    Frozen OS thread

    in International Box Office

    Posted · Edited by Rsyu

    International: Frozen is the twenty-fifth highest-grossing film, the fourth highest-grossing animated film, the third highest-grossing 2013 film, the highest-grossing non-sequel animated film and the highest-grossing Walt Disney Animation Studios film. It is the highest-grossing animated film of all time in South Korea, Denmark and Venezuela. It is also the highest-grossing Walt Disney Animation Studios film in at least 50 territories, including the Latin America region (as well as specifically in Mexico and Brazil), the UK, Ireland and Malta, Russia and the CIS, Ukraine, Norway, Malaysia, Singapore, Australia and China.

     

    Frozen didn't under perform in Latin america, It just looks that way because it over performed everywhere else :D

    • Like 3

    Frozen OS thread

    in International Box Office

    Posted · Edited by Rsyu

    Hopefully Frozen has a successful leggy Japan run.  

     

    I miss the excitement of waiting for winter daily numbers as Frozen exceeded everyones expectations during its domestic run.

     

    Now we'll have some excitement as Frozen attempts to pass TS3

     

    Missed the earlier part of frozen's DOM run (didn't know it existed until Jan 16th) but the consequent run as well as OS performance was pretty thrilling. Hopefully we'll have more of the same from Japan  B)

    Frozen not passing TS3 should be classed as a major upset at this point.

    Frozen OS thread

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    update ! Toho is the biggest movie distributor in Japan , accounting for more than 20% of national-wide theaters.

     

    TOHOサイト上映25分前贩売数中间集计：201403152014/03/1514:30CM:0TB:0TOHOサイト上映25分前贩売数：20140315 （14:30 集计）贩売数　座席数　回数　作品名21978　52792　144　アナと雪の女王（日本语吹替版）21215　55424　201　映画ドラえもん　新・のび太の大魔境～ペコと５人の探検队～*7908　26159　117　映画　プリキュアオールスターズ　ＮｅｗＳｔａｇｅ３　永远のともだち*5044　19549　*80　アナと雪の女王（字幕版）*3094　13384　*93　银の匙　Ｓｉｌｖｅｒ　Ｓｐｏｏｎ*2398　14552　*90　ロボコップ（字幕版）*2291　10338　*58　それでも夜は明ける　（字幕版）*2130　*4432　*11　剧场版　世界一初恋　横泽隆史の场合*1830　15157　110　剧场版しまじろうのわお！しまじろうとくじらのうた*1628　*3148　**8　アナと雪の女王（３Ｄ・字幕版）

     

    Yesterday at this time :  18567  admissions

    Today 28650

     

    admissions looks awesome considering yesterday way TOHO day even (40% discount). Hopefully we should see and increase in gross from yesterday. 

     

     

    I'm still hoping for 10m opening weekend  :P

     
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