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pepsa

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Everything posted by pepsa

  1. Midday is even with saturday (169k CGV vs 170k yesterday), sunday however is a lot weaker in the evening. Still expecting a 5-6% dropish. So yeah probably 445k today. Again a better hold than the WoM monster Roundup (8% drop)
  2. Great CGV start today: it's at 91k, yesterday it was at 96k so it's down 5.3%. With today doing 472.3k, sunday should do something between 435k - 450k (down 4-8%) let's go with 442k for now. Meaning TGM would open to 1.525m amdission (including 64.7k previews); Impossible to say at the moment. We will have a better idea when we see second and third weekend drop. For now a 3x multi is locked so we should atleast do 4.6m. I think it's safe to say 6m wil most likely happen, any higher than that will depend on next weeks holds. As in so far we have seen signs that it will hold very well, we need a second weekend drop to see if a 5-6-7 multi is possible. For a 7 multi it would need a increase next weekend for example (or flat hold).
  3. Evening was a tad bit slower than expected, ended the day with 472.3k up 118.5% from yesterday. A much bigger jump than for example Roundup (jumped 94.2%), but not on par with a family movie like JWD that jumped over 150%.
  4. I took a quick look at CGV, it's at 162k at 4.20pm, should do around 210k from here on out. Translating to 482k, so looking at a 128% increase over friday. This is quite a bit lower than JWD (156.3%) but also lot higher than Roundup that had an increase of 94.2%. So far TGM has been out preforming Roundup in holds on a daily bases, let's keep it that way tomorrow. I also think the increased walkups day over day are slowing down at this point, something to keep in mind when estimating next days gross based on cgv. So it's looking like 470k-500k, my guess would be 485k. Very good jump, just not Family movie good.
  5. Mhm I don't know, it really does have chance with it's friday and sat bump. Lets say it does 500k on sat (might be a bit lower, could go higher as well), than it drops 460k on sunday (has been doing better than roundup so far so sunday drop will likely be less than 10%, might even be something like 5%). Given a 460k sunday we expect it to drop 65% on monday meaning a 161k, that's 10% bigger than it's thursday, having the same drops as Roundup it gets to a 116k thursday down 20% on thursday, second weekend friday and sat bumps are higher than during OW so this should secure a 14% drop. Now this is all based on TGM following RU, it has beaten RU almost everyday (Thursday drop was same, friday jump alot higher, sat jump seems to be going quite a bit higher as wel). And the bigger factor is RU had a 1m sat so not much room to grow where as TGM start off much lower so it's easier to hold steady. With the current info I would say it's a 50-50 on increasing next weekend. Tuesday drop will be important though.
  6. CGV start 96k up 159.5% from yesterday. not up as much as JWD was (208%) still walk ups should be great once more. Today had great walk ups again (59k), should do atleast double that on saturday => 118k + 96k = 214k. I am thinking it will do a tad bit better and reach 228k, this should be good for 525k tomorrow or a 143% increase. So yeah 490k - 560k ($4.2m -$4.8m) is the range. Sat + Sun has a chance to reach over 1m admission and monday has a good shot at being over thursday, first monday going over OD might be at play.
  7. Very nice day 215.72k sick increase! Up by 48% from friday beating OD by 14.5%! Ps are very healthy, looking at a big jump on saturday. 347k PS going in to the weekend.
  8. Evening is going quite strong, better than early estimates. We are looking at 210k today a 43.7% increase even better than JWD friday increase. (that movie increased 150%+ on saturday, a very weekend heavy franch)
  9. Today is looking like +37% (again same as Roundup), might get a bit higher with a good evening. Atm 200k is likely. Great sign that Friday is over OD! Total PS are increasing on a steady pace, boding well for a good weekend. Like Jatinder said next weeks drop (or maybe increase?) is more important than this OW. Next thursday vs this thursday will be a big tell.
  10. CGV starts at 37k vs 28k of yesterday (+32%), I would guess walks will increase even more, specialy because it's friday. Thinking +40%-50% (204k-219k)
  11. Currently 146k down 22.5% same as the roundup first thursday drop, meaning amazing! Also actuals will probably come in 150-350 higher like yesterday.
  12. CGV yesterday 22/06: 46k PS, finished with 87k => 188 344 total CGV ratio 46.2% meaning 41k in walkups. Today: 28k PS (down 39%), finishing 67-68k today => CGV ratio probably 47% so I guess 142.55k today. Big thing here is it either did 39k or 40k in walk ups basicly flat from OD, meaning were in for a very healty Friday bump.
  13. What are the expectation for Kingdom 2, do you think it will beat the previous 5.7B?
  14. Today is dropping 25% or less, showing WoM already...
  15. There was a time in 2008 when the Euro was 1.5-1.6 dollars. Great times for USD based boxoffice 😛
  16. Depending on if TGM will cosplay Aladin or not.. But yeah I think with the UK looking at 70-80m pound it's quite safe. (85-96m USD)
  17. CGV starts at 28k, so 61% from yesterday. Walkups shoudn't drop by 39% because of good WoM. Should be closer to a 30% drop around 132k or so. Roundup (a WoM beast) had a thursday drop of only 22.4%,.
  18. So TGM had 266.5k ps vs 363k from MI6, so rougly 73% of MI6 total ps's. TGM opened to 188k vs MI6 605k, rougly 31% of MI6 opening. Seems like PS have be come a lot more commen in tha last 4 years. Buying long term seems to be much more common now, something I have to take in to account in the future (I said before that it now is more ps heavy but I didn't know it was to this extend).
  19. Cgv starts at 46k, Not the best start.
  20. TGM: D-13 - 17.15K D-12 - 26K D-11 - 36.8K D-10 - 43.3K D-09 - 49.5K D-08 - 67.5k D-07 - 79.5k D-06 - 89.1k D-05 - 99.2k D-04 - 117.7k D-03 - 125.1k D-02 - 131.3K D-01 - 194.9K (+63.6K) D-00 - 266.5K (+70.6k) Quite a bad last day in ps, normaly last day is atleast 1.5x second day (for non super hyped movies) and for a lot of movies it's commen to to have 2x last day. Stil enough to do good, lets see WoM + cgv in 20 min.
  21. Like others have said PS increase today are quite low. 270K at the end of today most likely. All up to WoM now, Should still go over 2m over the weekend. Like druv said, it's all up to WoM now.
  22. These OW are only Friday till Sunday, so TGM has no shot at getting in to the top 10. The 5-day opening weekend will be over 2.5m but 3day will be closer to 2m (1.8m-2.3m), a 3day of 2.8m would mean close to 4m 5-day OW. Impossible with current ps.
  23. All we know is that MI6 had 363k D-0, will be hard for TGM to match this, something in the low 300k is more likely imo. Even if it matches it, movies have gotten more ps heavy so it won't match the opening day of 600k that MI6 had. If for some reason it does crazy tomorrow and it has great walk ups equaling the OD of IM6 would assure 9m+ easily I think. (as WoM seems to be great) So for now I would say expect something between 2.5m -3m OW what do you think @imbruglia?
  24. TGM: D-13 - 17.15K D-12 - 26K D-11 - 36.8K D-10 - 43.3K D-09 - 49.5K D-08 - 67.5k D-07 - 79.5k D-06 - 89.1k D-05 - 99.2k D-04 - 117.7k D-03 - 125.1k D-02 - 131.3K D-01 - 194.9K (+63.6K) Expecting at least 120k tomorrow. Hoping it manages to do 150k +. PS are good enough to ensure a 2.5m Opening weekend I think. WoM will be the most important factor.
  25. I think it's 50/50 atm, Korea is looking like 10m contender. Presales were weaker over the weekend but it had previews 25k sat 32k sun. Whilst PS jumped from 131k to over 200k, should get close to 400k tomorrow whilst having continous previews (consuming ps's). I would say 3m + ow is in the cards (add 400k in previews) looking like it's going to be big. EDIT: Mb on monday previews, I miss read the 65k cumulative for 65k on cgv. It's not having previews on monday (makes sense). Still good shot at 3m OW. Sorry for the bad info.
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