Eric Prime

Actually, I'm gonna defend @Nova for a minute. So @grim22 let me get this straight (ya know what, I'm just gonna call the whole mod team @aabattery @Spagspiria @Christmas baumer @DeeCee @Water Bottle @AndyLL) Lordmandeep has openly trolled Star Wars threads for the past year, bringing up how people hate Last Jedi at the slightest mention of anything. That's not even mentioning similar stuff he's been doing in the Captain Marvel thread. This stirring of the pot has been going on for years. A few threadbans, fewer suspensions, no ban. Napoleon has gone out of his way to troll MCU and the Fantastic Beasts threads, has tried to start fan wars and conspiracy theories multiple times, and has even stated that people who say anything negative about Zack Snyder should burn in hell. This stirring of the pot has been going on for years. Few threadbans, fewer suspensions, no ban. GraceRandolph has also started up flame wars, and has gone out of her way to attack DCEU fans, as well as Gaga fans. This has been going on for months. Few threadbans, no suspensions, no ban. But when Nova, a poster who has had zero infractions or trouble-causing and is generally well-liked by the community dares to make a mild joke about Aquaman's box office, he gets an instant threadban. Even after people like Manny G have gone on for days with concern trolling over both Poppins and Bumblebee. He gets nothing, while Nova has an instant slap on the wrist? Need I remind you that your guidelines state "no trolling allowed?" I'd at least be okay with Nova's threadban if you had harsher punishments for these figures and the stuff they've done, but you haven't. At most, you've given them a mild threadban, despite doing much, much worse for months, even years. Hell, why did I not get a threadban, when I did similar things on page 6 in the weekend thread? You're seriously gonna hit Nova over a harmless joke, when others have done far worse? Great priorities guys. Good to know you don't care about making this place a fun, non-toxic forum.

June 14 Men in Black International: The first trailer got a bit of an “eh” response. Most of the reactions are either “eh, this looks lame” or “eh, this looks fun”. But despite the more mellow reactions, this won’t implode as much as the previous Will Smith-less continuation of a 90s property with a Hemsworth brother starring. For one, although Men in Black was definitely sold on Will Smith’s charisma and personality, there’s still plenty more you can do with the MiB universe than you can with Independence Day. A sci-fi action comedy with cool aliens and decent one-liners can be repackaged to a new audience far better than another end-of-the-world apocalypse story. Helps that Men in Black is largely considered a better movie than the first Independence Day. Outside of that, F. Gary Gray is a good director, the cast is a lot of fun, and apart from Godzilla, which will already be out for a couple of weeks, and Dark Phoenix, which nobody cares about, this is the only major live-action tentpole of the month. That will help it stand out. It will be a good blockbuster for kids who have already seen Pets and Toy Story and for adults that are uninterested in the adventures of Woody and Buzz or Max and Duke. Ocean’s 8 numbers. 45/145 (3.22x) Shaft: The three Shaft generations is a great concept, and Tim Story’s done a couple good movies here and there before. Shaft is one of the more famous blaxploitation characters, so this will certainly do better than Superfly. Won’t be a massive hit, but it will find its audience. 20/50 (2.5x)

Enough about DP, let's talk about...DP. June 7 Dark Phoenix: Does anyone (outside of Arlborn) actually care about this? Does even Fox care about this? The FOX-Men movies are basically played out by this point. Its initial teaser was fine, but nothing all that earth-shattering. The FOX-Men are also expected to be dropped by the time this movie comes out in favor of the new MCU version. Then there’s so many other movies surrounding it with more buzz. Just seems like the interest is non-existent. Maybe summer weekdays will help it cross the century mark, but this will probably go sub-100M. 35/85 (2.43x) Flarsky: Moved to the summer due to good test screenings, the concept is certainly timely, and Seth Rogen still has his fans. I’m pretty hesitant on any straightforward comedy’s box office potential nowadays, but this should be a bright spot and a good counter-programmer. 25/80 (3.2x) The Secret Life of Pets 2: The first Pets was one of the biggest surprises when it comes to $100M openers. And it's still the highest opening for a completely original film. But the question is whether or not it can recreate that success for the sequel? While it is common for animated movie sequels to increase from their predecessors, including ones that were already huge hits, this one opened so high that it is a bit of a question mark, and there’s plenty of things that make me pessimistic over that happening. The character-focused trailers that have been coming out is certainly helpful in maintaining awareness for the film, and the first film was well-liked, generating solid legs. But despite the film being liked by audiences, it doesn’t really seem like the film was beloved or has stuck around in the same way as other popular movies have. Using another sequel to a 2016 film as an example, Crimes of Grindelwald showed that just because your first movie had good legs and solid word of mouth, that doesn’t mean your next movie is going to be an instant hit, especially if the new hook fails to appeal (of course it didn’t help that Grindelwald sucked, but still). Then again, I’m not 8 years old, so maybe what i'm saying is moot. It also doesn’t help that the film’s competition is a lot fiercer. Outside of Finding Dory, which was already playing for a month, the biggest direct threat to Pets was Ice Age 5, alongside indirect threats like Ghostbusters and Legend of Tarzan. This year, Pets will be surrounded by Aladdin and Toy Story, and to a lesser extent Godzilla, all of which are destined to make at least 80M+. That’s a problem. Follow-ups to monster animated movies typically drop in the 20s when it comes to total, so let’s just say around 21%. 90/285 (3.16x)

🤔

A few posts away, but love the Black Panther analysis. Hate that people are going all "oh it's just another Marvel movie" when it manages to tackle themes and ideas that are seldom explored in cinema, especially family action blockbusters. It's probably one of the riskier blockbusters this year, and maybe even last year.

Tele, put some clothes on.

We all know you're going to stan Sonic The Hedgehog to spite Pika Pika

I feel like I'm talking to a brick wall, but I'm just gonna give some defenses out real quick. Could Poppins and Bumblebee be doing better? Yes. Can they be viewed in the lens of being disappointments? Sure. But it's still important to recognize that these movies are still doing solid regardless. We may have overestimated Poppins, but it's seeing strong business. Good reviews, awards potential for Blunt, 200M+ gross. It's likely to finish at around 450M WW, possibly even 500M. Off a 130M budget, that's great. Even including marketing budgets, it's still likely to be profitable, especially since musicals get a lot of revenue from soundtrack sales and streaming. It's frustrating that people are still putting their heads in the sand because I made a stupid club and a lot of people agreed with what I had to say. And sure, Bumblebee's not doing amazing business, but was anyone really expecting it to? Apart from being a spin-off, it's coming off a slew of mediocre to bad installments. Age of Extinction suffered domestically due to these bad movies, while The Last Knight was practically rejected. Bumblebee was going to suffer the consequences no matter what. I haven't paid much attention to its international returns, but it should also make at least $350M, right? With a lower budget, this will see profits, but more importantly, good reviews will ensure better trust in the brand. What matters at this point is a good movie and, at worst, okay box office returns. I doubt the next Transformers movie will see a TDK explosion, but this is more importantly course correction, and will lead to potential increases for the upcoming sequel. So to all the people spouting doom and gloom here, could you do the forum a favor and please look at the glass half full for once? Just stop, smell the roses, and look at what the playing field is. I would say this will be my last post talking about this, but...I have my doubts people will listen.

He's probably still a pariah after all of his critical failures, making it hard for studios to be interested in having him back for bigger movies. Especially when his big-budget extravaganzas like Last Airbender and After Earth flopped. Can't handle 100M movies? Then you ain't worth shit. His name is also still considered somewhat of a joke to people less involved in the movie scene. Even after The Visit came out, I had friends and family unsure about Split being good solely because of the Shyamalan name. Although Glass could change things around. It's still low-budget, but if he's able to show that he can make a good tentpole-style release, I can see a studio signing him on to a bigger project he doesn't have to self-finance.

I know. I'm just pointing out the 400M predicts for AQM, and the hypocrisy of these people spouting "FLOP FLOP FLOP" for Poppins.

Also for next week: Escape Room: 1:35 w/out credits. Attachments unknown, but likely Miss Bala and BrightBurn

My prediction sees a 15% increase from G14, which is similar to Fallout's jump after Rogue Nation.

Oh wow. Aquaman is missing these predictions. What an utter flop. How can Warner Bros. spin such a disaster? See, I can do this shit too.

LOL at people still annoyed and angry over a harmless club for a dumb children's movie.

To be fair, December 2019 does have a Jumanji and a Star Wars movie. Diana's a Queen, but....that's still pretty formidable competition compared to what Aquabrah faced.

May 31 Godzilla 2: Like the first Godzilla, this is having some GOAT marketing. But unlike the first Godzilla, this actually seems to be giving people what they want. Pure monster carnage with glorious scale and visuals. And unlike something like Lego, the 5-year gap arguably benefits the movie. Most people will probably be unaware that it’s a sequel and could treat it like a stand-alone thing, so anyone turned off by the last movie probably forgot it even came out. A similar opening and better legs. A rarity when it comes to sequels, I'm aware. 90/230 (2.55x) Rocketman: Following up Bohemian Rhapsody, this won’t be as successful, considering John’s music and story doesn’t have the same iconic stature. But it will certainly find a solid audience, feature catchy songs, and be a great counter-program for adults this summer. This also seems like it’ll still be a decent crowd-pleaser, though as good as Bohemian we’ll just have to wait and see. 35/120 (3.43x)

May 24 Aladdin: This marketing campaign is really missing the mark. The teaser showed nothing to get people interested, while the EW photos make it look abnormally cheap. Then you got mouth breathers whining about how Will Smith isn’t blue, because apparently that’s a crime against humanity. 🙄 But still, it doesn’t seem like even Aladdin fans are all that impressed. And yeah, it seems like Disney’s just trying to polish a turd. Guy Ritchie’s a hit-and-miss, mostly miss director, and the Disney Memorial Day curse is real. Add on Pikachu, Pets, and Toy Story, and this could be in trouble. Then again, maybe Disney will release a new trailer that shows off Big Willie’s comedic chops, and everything will turn out okay. Who knows? 80/100/228 (2.85x, 2.28x) Booksmart: I had no idea this existed until just now. It's an Olivia Wilde-directed comedy with Beanie Feldstein, so...Annapurna will be Annapurna? 5/7/15 (3x, 2.14x) BrightBurn: In our current superhero movie boom, it’s surprising we haven’t had a “what if a superhero origin story went wrong?” plot until now (yes I know Chronicle exists, shut up). The trailer’s pretty cool, the film will likely ride the coattails of the superhero movie boom, and James Gunn’s name isn’t that tarnished. A modest success. 20/35/55 (2.75x, 1.57x) I don't think Ad Astra is coming out this weekend, so I'm just gonna skip it.

May 17 A Dog’s Journey: This is the second adaptation of a book written by the A Dog’s Purpose guy coming out this year. But it won’t gross more than Dog’s Way Home. Like Uglydolls, this is swarmed by a slew of more appealing family productions with much higher gross potential. At least with Home, stuff like Poppins and Spider-Verse will have smaller weekend grosses. Also, I just don’t see people going for what is essentially the same movie twice. At least something like Antz and A Bug’s Life had different tones and styles to them. This is the exact same movie, from the exact same author. 12/40 (3.33x) John Wick: Chapter 3: As we all know, thanks to the ancillary market, John Wick 2 leapfrogged over its predecessor. This won’t have a massive jump like before, but I can see another increase. It feels like the franchise is more and more popular every year, and it’s kind of counterprogramming from all the PG-13 blockbusters surrounding it. It also has the benefit of summer weekdays. And of course, John Wick on a horse is the greatest hook ever. 35/105 (3x) The Sun Is Also a Star: From the director of Before I Fall, this just seems like any other YA adaptation. Everything, Everything numbers seems about right. 11/35 (3.18x)

May 10 Detective Pikachu: Okay, okay. I was wrong. I said when the first trailer dropped this movie's run would end in the 100s. But now it’ll probably open in the 100s. The hype for this is real. People love the trailer, they’re excited to see Pokemon in live-action, they love the crazy idea, they love them some good ol’ Pika Pika. Fans will probably love it, the kids will eat it up, even people not into Pokemon might just check it out for FOMO purposes. Nostalgia’s also a helluva drug. This won’t do the absurdly high predicts people have sprung about, but this will still be very impressive and probably WB’s biggest movie this year. 140/390 (2.78x) The Hustle: Initially slated to come out last year, there is a scenario where it’s a decent enough offering for Mother’s Day, but I don’t really see this catching on. The director is unproven, the writer wrote Olaf’s Frozen Adventure, and even with two talented actresses, I don’t see why people will care about this one considering all of the other counterprogramming options. 15/45 (3x)

May 3 The Intruder: The last major Screen Gems thriller like this was When the Bough Breaks. This is coming out in a crowded summer, so I expect similar results. 15/30 (2x) Uglydolls: God I hate this trailer. I’ve gotten this at Grinch, Ralph, and Spider-Verse, and I’m probably getting it in front of every kids movie I have an inkling of interest in for the next few months. It just looks like the absolute worst that children’s entertainment has to offer, so each trailer feels like torture. And I’m sure audiences will agree with me on this. Not just because of the low quality, but because there’s already so much family content that will be arriving in the coming weeks that look far more appealing. Pikachu, Aladdin, Pets, Toy Story. Audiences will save their money, considering the massive summer it will be for for family films. 10/30 (3x)

That Deadline jump for Poppins is only 2 percentage points behind Jumanji's second weekend jump. It would also make it the 5th highest 2nd weekend jump for a movie in 3,000+ theaters. We shouldn't expect it to have the same run, but it does show WOM is kicking in, and 200M is a lock. Hopefully 250M can happen, considering it has no major competition until Lego (and I guess to a lesser extent Glass since that will probably take up a bunch of screens). Aquaman should also make around 350M, Bumblebee will pass The Last Knight, and Spider-Verse should reach $150M.

@aabattery are you aware this exists?