I said this before and I'll say it again: AMPAS/Disney/ABC will go HAM on making sure every big mainstream movie will get a Best Picture nomination next ceremony. A Best Picture lineup with Avatar 2, Black Panther 2, Lightyear, Doctor Strange 2, Thor 4, Spider-Verse 2, Top Gun 2, Nope, The Batman, and Mission: Impossible 7 isn't that crazy to think about after how awful this year's ratings will be. Then just sprinkle in some nominations for Robert Pattinson, Dwayne Johnson, Elizabeth Olsen, etc. just to be on the safe side.
There's no way we'll get to even 8 million viewers with nominations like this.