Yeah, no.
I know being the resident Timmy T fanboy here makes me sound like a nutcase, but here's the problem.
First off, reviews are fine? It's largely landing in the high C's, low B's, which isn't a great result, but certainly fine enough, and isn't an outright panning. Especially since Chalamet is by far the most acclaimed element in the film. Generally, even people who don't like the movie tout that Chalamet's performance was incredible, and he's already riding a huge amount of goodwill with CMBYN and his future projects. From passion alone, he has a great shot.
Outside of that, what else do we have when it comes to contenders so far? Ben Foster would be cool, but it feels a touch unlikely. Richard E. Grant is getting a lot of attention, so he seems okay. Adam Driver has also done well, but I feel as if having him getting nominated depends on John David Washington's chances (the Academy pulling another Do the Right Thing I just don't see happening), and JDW is on the fringe, and really depends on if Malek disappoints and/or Redford's movie gets forgotten about. Sam Rockwell might deliver with Backseat. Haven't heard much about Sam Elliott, but maybe he gets in thanks to ASIB being such a hit. Crowe could do well too, but he hasn't been singled out much. I guess Beale Street, Widows, or Ben is Back might make him vulnerable if either of those land.
But as of right now, I don't think it's fair to cut him out just yet, unless Kaluuya, Duvall, Stephan James, or Hedges get raves tonight or tomorrow.