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norbar

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Everything posted by norbar

  1. norbar
    Yes but there is far less of them. Also you also assume the movie has great legs.
  2. norbar
    The movie (DIsco Polo) is good but you may be overexaggerating. Look at presales for this weekend. 750k.
  3. norbar
    Looking at tommorow reservations and the onees during the week 50 shades may pass 1.5mil after the weekend. The drop won't be as big as some here hope
  4. norbar
    The movie wasn't liked enough. Also the market has changed and making any significant number over 2mil is hard because there is much more competition and higher ticket prices also price out some viewers.
  5. norbar
    The reviews are not as bad as you think. Around 1/3 of them are ok. Some people like the movie. The drop will be steep because the movie was very frontloaded but 80% is not realistic. Last year a polish comedy went -81% but that movie was a huge marketing lie and people wanted their money back in large groups. I'd say you should expect Twilight drops so the movie should be at 250-300 next weekend. If you adjust for valentines it can go in the low 200s but lower would be really strange. A few of the good ones in recent years: The best offer - close to 10x (8.4k opening, 81k total) La Grande Belazza over 20x (4.1k opening 83k total) Cristiada 30x (4.1k opening 122k total) But those were small ones. From the big ones: Now you see me was 6.5x (87 to 557) Intouchables was over 10x (68 to over 760) Bogowie was also slightly below 10x Overall good liked movies do between 6-10 depending on the competition and dates.
  6. norbar
    It was. I checked with box office and previous record for a weekend was 200k lower. The holdovers and counterprogramming performed really damn well. 1mil is a success but a record? Remember previous marvel universe movies did good but not spectacular and comic book movies in general don't fare good in poland when YA box office bombs can beat them 1 mil total will be a success. Infinity war part 2 will do well in Poland but the whole avengers universe will build up very slowly in Poland. I say the anticipation should be there. They have an amazing release date. I think they are betting at at least 500k opening but probably hope for something higher than the hobbit so 700k. If the first part is very good they can beat 50 shades with the last or maybe even second.
  7. norbar
    Then why not bet on 20k viewers? If we are trying to predict the result lets at least be realistic and not do guesswork that ignores most of the data we both should use for our predictions. @Pypa94 - It's a good thing. People will go to the cinema, see trailers. Usually after a big event like that people are more eager to go to cinemas.
  8. norbar
    That 50 shades will do 600k because german bo
  9. norbar
    Then your multiplier is all wrong. It only proves your previous argument wrong. You compare 1 country and disregard Polish bo history, expected screen count, etc.
  10. norbar
    Low brow - as it could be easily sold to simple, less educated people. Especially cinematically. As for presales being strong if we get as it happened in germany so almost 2x the presales I might still be right. Remember the last official presales number we got was almost 2 weeks ago. Yesterday it was probably 400-550k. Multiply that by 1.85 and you get way above 600k
  11. norbar
    What has Germany to do with it? Poland and Germany are rarely comparable for low brow movies. Compare Poland to the rest of Eastern Europe. I say 1m won't happen but you are betting too low. Anything <750 is a letdown. Remember some movies sell way better in Poland than in Germany (Comparatively of course). Hell compare even Wolf of Wall Street Poland vs Germany. I don't get how can you be assuming the movie will make less than the hobbit when it's has more presales, more reservatons and more screenings.
  12. norbar
    That is always posted on mondays but you can compare.
  13. norbar
    Nope they don't. As for people thinking 600k - remember that they now look like they have similar screens to the hobbit with a shorter run so more screenings. The Hobbit had 435 screens (not cinemas)!!! Now you get a shorter runtime by a lot so multiply their screentime by 1.5 and all they need is hobbit attendance to make 693x1.5 = 1mil!!! O don't remember when was the last time where they dropped 60% of screenings of a movie that did 200k+ the previous week (Penguins). @Pypa94 - VD? Venerial Diseases?
  14. norbar
    Hard to say. I've heard some rumors about presales I can't disclose and I haven't yet put a bet on our company board but I say it's 900-1m. It's really hard to be accurate when it goes so high since there is nothing to compare. I know only of 2 one screen cinemas who don't play it. Most of the ones that do are fully booked. I have to say the church must be envious of that attendance PS. No matter what happens this will be the biggest top20 in polish bo history. The last record was what? 1m145k? Looking at those I think I may have overcalculated but presales look as good as Shrek 3 with more screens and showings so how could it not be above 850 at least? Penguins will still be very high and even if Shaun the Sheep fails it still should be decent (and the movie is awesome, I recommend it)
  15. norbar
    The reviews are good but it's still going to be frontloaded. I don't expect it to drop above 70% but 60-65% is obvious. Still that could mean the next weekend is above 300k.
  16. norbar
    350-400k? That's lowballing it. Remember that it's rare to have vallentines on saturday and last year a very shitty comedy did 190k viewers with a large majority of it came from valentines. So this? It should do at least hobbit numbers.
  17. norbar
    It was at 230k 7 days ago so who knows how high it is now.
  18. norbar
    It's not unexpected. Puritan countries do really well with sex movie. Ffs Gutek sold Nymphomaniac really well for their small budget. Hell they even sold Antichrist on sex and taboo. I say it opens to 700k viewers at minimum. They already supposedly presold 388k tickets. I know one woman cried when she couldn't get a ticket for saturday in one cinema.
  19. norbar
    From studios yes but how many movies from euro, uk and other independents you get? Seriosuly look at your blackhat review and compare it to anywhere in the world. Your market is very differen to most of the ones in EE.
  20. norbar
    I'm not saying OW. I'm saying in Romania you have fewer movies released every year than in Poland. Our market got really cluttered in the last few years. It means that you not only have to compete with what's opening but what's opened in the previous weeks. Movies in Poland don't get as high results as 3-4 years ago even though we had a record year exactly because of that. Finding a good date for a movie now is actually a decision of which date is the least problematic, not which one is good. Such thing doesn't exist in Poland anymore.
  21. norbar
    Romania? You are an exception and I think there is much less competition. UK/US/FR all failed hard.
  22. norbar
    Paddington does well during the week. Remember about that. 600k is still easily possible. Also taken only dropped 49%. That's still a good hold. It will easily go above 400. The only question is will it go above 450k. If the trend continues it will make ca. 60k for the week + the weekend. That gets it to a bit over 400k. Then it will probably do 20-30w+w and then 10-15w+W. That still means it's 435-460k viewers. More if other movies underperform. Compared to foreign results of Mortdecai I say it's a success. The movie opened to 4mil in the US? It's like opening <10k viewers in Poland. Hell it's probably like opening to 6-8k.
  23. norbar
    ALL comic books are not a brand. Marvel is a brand in progress.
  24. norbar
    Over 300k in May would be very surprising. Remember we get <5 over 200k OW's per year. Over 300? Very few. I'd say high 200's and if the movie is decent it does Wolf of Wall Street Numbers.
  25. norbar
    I doubt it since Iron Man 3 did 612k. They have to go above it. As for 1M+ movies. I don't know how good it will be but maybe Karbala? It's a well known event and NEXT is distributing it. Also Minions may crawl to 1M
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