norbar

1. So 2/4 show potential, 2 show no potential. 50/50 2. Less front loading doesn't always mean better legs. 3. No my country is not all countries that's why I speak about EE, why I gave the Czech example. 4. If you take 33% of what Hunger games did you get $170mil. If that's not a big difference then I agree but if the movie ends up doing 160-180mil please don't claim it's near Hunger games. Four times difference means a total bomb and is impossible. if it could do 4 times less than Hunger games we wouldn't even have this topic. 5. Wait and learn. I hate that argument but I think you need some experience in following results because you seem to have no idea how much it takes for a movie to have long legs.

It did the same as the first Twilight in Poland. It did 4x the Twilight result in Russia. What country are you taking about? Croatia Divergent was weaker than both Twilight (x4) and Hunger (x2) games.

But you weren't talking about the global scale. You are talking about local movies vs global movies. I get that you are an americanophile (always surprises me why such people exist, should get a trip to detroit) but remember that the marketing power of US studios plus expenses mean it's quite obvious you won't beat them WW. Especially since a lot of local movies aren't distributed WW like hollywood movies but on local markets Hollywood looses often because of the diluted quality of their blockbusters that have to work both in countries like Japan and in ones like Greece. The viewer mentality there is totally different and even though I hate most of what my country produces they won't win here anytime soon.

1. Those 5 countries are not all countries. Asian markets release MANY summer blockbusters after the summer, eastern europe has a ton of products based at school age viewers (exactly the same target) 2. Maze Runner doesn't have a big fanbase and it will be bigger than hunger games? That's counter intuitive. It's like saying Percy Jackson should be bigger than Harry potter because the book had less fans. 3. It will not surpass Hunger games in my country (because they chose to open against a film that will open 10x bigger than Maze Runner, and 2 weeks before 2 movies that will have 5x the opening of maze runner), and many other EE countries (Czech Rep early limited release means it will probably debut on 3-5th spot there). Same for most European markets. Japan may go higher since Hunger Games was very low there but US movies this year have problems there. 4. Stop lying that Mexico difference is small. 2.3M$ vs 3.5M$ is a 33% difference. On a big market that had a decent OW multiplier. The results are surprisingly good but stop overexagerating. Ffs your name here is mazerunner, you have a maze runner avatar and signature. You aren't very objective about the movie and I'm waiting for some other small market to open good for you to say Maze Runner will beat Avatar.

The problem is we have 1/4th of the screens most western europe countries have. In France every little town has a cinema. Went to Portes du soleil this summer and every little turist village had one. I think it works for every market in this stage of development. As you grow the market diversifies and the fragmentation becomes bigger. Though I think the same thing will happen on big, mature markets too. It will just be slower and it will take some time (and a few big BO bombs). It already happened to US TV.

The big OS competition includes 2 movies that BOMBED and did crap at the box office. So nope, not big. Also yes september has better legs but worse results in general. As for male not watching in OW that's not really true. Look at spreads at BO mojo. It's rare to see a high female bias and on male movies you sometimes see 60-65% on OW. And yeah hunger games didn't have gigantic legs because the marketing campain made it open big. Any movie where there is high anticipation is very frontloaded, even if people like it. It's the surprises that have long legs. But Maze Runner even if it has better legs has to open at least on 70% of what hunger games did in most countries to surpass it. Though I think 90% is more probable since it's rare to see very long legs in movies where the audience will only be 25 and under.

I'm not a fan of the hunger games but it's not our opinion that matters. It's how many people think it doesn't suck. And really A LOT of people like Hunger games. It also has less negative audience than Twilight which really helps building buzz around it.

I think it also has to do with distributors buying a ton of movies. Now outside of dump weeks like this one we have 3-4 big (80 copies and above) releases every week. It's simple maths. Even if the admissions will grow you will not see the market being dominated by only a few movies just because now there are so many movies fighting for a piece of the pie. As for admissions growing. A few years ago did a box office revenue analysis for one company and if I remember right (have it on my home computer, cant get it from work unfortunately) the last 3 years before 2013 were stagnant. There is room to grow since we are the biggest of the small markets in europe (there is a big gap between us and the big guys like spain and italy both in terms of revenue and screens) but the prices will have to fall consistenly. The cinema chains have cornered themselves. The overall Polish market will feature price deflation this year and they have been rising ticket prices for very long. Now they try many different promotions but many people may simply not be willing to jump through the hoops and will wait for the regular prices to fall (some cinemas in warsaw have 31PLN regular, 2D tickets for the weekend. That's insane compared to our purchasing power)

The Giver is a YA novel though written way before it was a thing but think of it as the same as Mortal Instruments, Host, Beautiful creatures etc. HTTYD is at 999k. They pushed hard but didn't make it. As for over 100k being nothing special have you noticed that the market is way more fragmented now than it used to be 5+ years ago? We get MANY more releases and the results are less and less concentrated in the top 10-20 movies of the year. Instead we get only a few movies that are big and a ton of 100-250 ones. Good for bigger independent distributors like KŚ, Monolith and Forum (well they have MGM but they but a lot of indies) and from time to time maybe even for Best and Gutek but not so good for studios.

So please suggest me what factors convinced you Maze Runner will have better Legs than the Hunger games? As for big releases they depend on the country. Argentina is dominated by wild tales and it will take 5th first spot next weekend, Asian markets are still to open a lot of big hollywood movies and Poland will have a movie that will probably to 10-15x the result of maze runner opening on the same weekend. Also Hunger games didn't face strong comp.

It won't have weak competition everywhere and in many markets september is a weak month. Also we don't know about wom so far. The reviews are mediocre and the imdb sample size is to small to say anything about wom. Also Hunger games had much better viewes and it had very good WOM. So how can this get better legs with worse WOM?

Not really. On most markets local movies are the record holders. In Polish case by 2 times

280-300M OS? That would be very surprising given the results are a positive surprise but not a total stomp like they should be for such run.

I doubt our cinema has specialists to make sci fi and action on our limited budgets ($8mil on miasto is only big for Poland). Remember that for action you need a talented choreographer and a director cinematographer duo that know how to shoot action (no one can in Poland so far) plus the editing would need to step up. For sci fi to be made on a budget you would need good art directors and people to make sets and costumes. We also lack those. Damn I'm pessimistic but I think I've lost hope for our cinema not being anything else than the two streams of war flagellation and badly made movies about important topics

Yeah I may underestimate it because I'm just sick and tired of Polish War movies.

Are you surprised? Way more commercial euro movies had no us release or a very weak one.

I think you are a bit too eager. Remember those are groups and you see more sales in smaller cities. Remember Wałesa was positioned to be big and it opened to 140k at 290 copies. That's 489people per copy though it looked much worse before release. I suspect there will be more here especially since Jestem Bogiem has shown late September isn't as bad as many people think but I still think there will be some negative audience for this movie. I see it closer to 800-1000 adm per copy though it all depends on the weather

Helios Warszawa - Femina? One week before it closes. Wow. Especially given how small it is. It looks big, especially now that they started bombing with advertising. Given they will hit at around 400 copies I see it opening to over 300k viewers. 350k most likely.

Belle is a very hard movie to sell. You know it's good only after you see it. It's looks like a TV product (Tbh it is, just a very good one). Not surprised it didn't do well in Asia. Not a movie for non Eurocentric markets.

I have to give it back to you mazerunner23 the results are quite decent. It may do good in developing markets. If Latin America likes it Russia will probably like it. The local distro is dumb though because they compare it to Twilight. Didn't work here for other movies, won't work again (but they also open it against what will be the biggest movie of the year)

So stagnang IN CHINA. You didn't add that so I was surprised. Yeah. That's a surprise though that means there is place to grow. That depends if the movie looks bombastic enough since big effects work there good for bo. If it isn't it may stay still

The other Helios in Rzeszów had 0 two days ago when I checked. That's strange. Thanks for the heads up those are very good numbers. Especially that some of the cinemas that don't do good numbers on a regular basis are good here. Though only 80 in Opole is strange compared to rest. That cinema usually does very good numbers. Though that may suggest something even better - that the movie will hit big in smaller cities, and a bit less in bigger cities leaving some space for other movies. Still that looks like a huge opening is possible given how rarely people pre buy in Poland btw. I just checked and I suspect those are groups for the most part. Earlier screenings and very concentrated spots.

Franchise is stagnant in what sense? Remember some countries didn't embrace CF as much as they could. That's where the growth could come from. - the countries that adapt slowly to franchises.

From what I hear they no longer count on more than 2.5M. I get why it's a big event especially with such gigantic patronage and budget but I wonder if there is some weight to the industry buzz. It's the 4th Warsaw uprising movie this year. Some scenes in the trailer look very similar to Kamienie na Szaniec trailer. The distributor needs to be really careful with positioning.

Last year aquisitions did very poorly in US. I get that Chris Rock is a niche product so it might sell. Though remember about other projects that sold around Toronto even though they are not reported. The DeNiro and Efron comedy may make a lot more than any of the reported movies. Also please post what do you think about Good Kill.