norbar

It may drop in US but remember some international markets are a bit slow in adapting to franchises plus China and a few developing countries grow a lot on a year to year basis. That may influence the OS result

I wonder if the expectation outside of the business are as big for it as there are inside it. It's a gigantic bubble and it's really confusing because I'm quite sure I'd predict the movie differently if everyone on box office forums and in the business didn't talk about it so much.

I tend to agree with guys on Filmschoolrejects the most. Collider and Slashfilm less but they are still quite reliable. Variety and THR are the worst.

In Poland the 3D dropped fast in last year. We had viewers thanking distributors for not releasing a movie in 3D. The share in some cases as low as <20%. 3D only works for select movies. I know 3D works in Russia though.

They had info about Sin City too. They canceled it at the last moment. 4 days before release it was on, 3 days before it was cancelled. As for presales - which cinemas have you checked? The ones in Helios I have checked have ZERO reservations. I see a few in cinema city but unless they win helios cinemas (since they represent smaller cities) they are in big trouble.

Well they didn't show Sin City that is also from Kino Świat. Though i doubt it. I think they aren't doing it just because no one is buying the presale tickets yet.

I've seen it in Europe on a market screening. I guess US and Canadian viewers are suckers for such fare. Especially if they haven't seen a ton of non US movies about the same thing.

I think there has been a correction. They are 5k short to 1mil. As for Sin City 2 - it didn't play in Multikino network so it lost a ton of big cinemas in big cities. Though looking at the number of copies they had it playing in every little town. It's a strange idea given it's a film for the big cities, not little towns.

From my experience Germans are very geeky and they like gimmicks. 3D share in other countires will probably be lower.

While it should be 1/10. The movie is total gibberish. No structure, the character faces no adversity, she has no enemies that can endanger her. The movie is a total mess in terms of stucture, character and world building.

Really? I thought it was a fairly generic for what it was (Another movie about a people peacefully fighting regimes and being in the wrong place at the wrong time). I think it's just another horrible example of topic reviews - if the topic is important, touching and up to date people review the movie positively, even if the movie itself isn't very different from many other movies like it. From this year I still think Nightcrawler is the best movie of the bunch. I'd even go as far as to call it this generation's Fight Club.

You do realize that most critics don't agree with you on the simple story etc yet you treat it as fact. I understand you don't like the movie, i share the opinion but at least notice the reality around you.

Remember that some developing markets catch up to franchises slower than US. There is a chance that while viewers didn't see HG much in China they like it and there will be a big bonus this part. Anyone has any news on how it was rated on chinease movie sites?

Sorry but that is your opinion. The third Madagascar scored 79% on RT, the 2nd 64%. For a widely released movie that's a very good result. Imdb scores are also very good So since previous movies were very liked and the rumors suggest Penguins are a great movie with China and other emerging markets growing I see it doing $470m+ Possibely even 500m.

Are the ticket prices raising like in Poland? Because the average price here has gotten to really stupid levels. It really shows if you know the ticket sales on promo days in big chains vs regular days. People here are still willing to come but they can't afford a 8$+ ticket on a country where our average income is 1/4th of the German one. As for soccer champioship I think the distributors just planned around it like it happened in Poland with the Euro. The overal year to year was similar to previous year (or maybe even slightly better) in 2012.

Well Austria doesn't have a poorer region like Germany has. Since my stepfather is from Munich but comes from Meisen in east Germany I can tell you the difference between those 2 regions is night and day. I'd say some parts of post DDR areas are poorer than west Poland so they may be dragging the numbers down. As for lower foreign grosses - Pixels and FF7 as well as Jupiter Ascending and a few others were shifted do 2015. It may explain the drop in most countries with a stailized box office market.

Because 130-140 is my prediction total, that's a big difference compared to 180M. Especially on a tight budget.

991k so it will be at 1mil before the weekend. If Fox does what most distributors they will probably send a press release about it so the news may pop out on Filmweb and other portals.

Lucy seems to be this year "Now you see me". Openly no one is raving about the movie but the premise is so interesting people are still comming and that should explain the small drops. Boyhood makes me a bit sad but UIP has no idea how to sell smaller movies that rely more on PR than big marketing spending. Though it could have very strong legs. Given how there is almost nothing to see untill Miasto 44 and the first movie for a more demanding viewer comes in over a month a 8-10x multiplier is possible. Also I think everyone should look here and see that releasing just before dump periods (late august - early sept) is a great idea since you face no competition in later months which translates to smaller drops. btw. HFT is at 105k viewers. Should cross 120k easily. Maybe 130k.

I'm not saying it won't break even. You have my international prediction on page 1. As for your idea about how people go into cinemas different month you are delusional. Do you really think we would have the same box office numbers all year if we had the same quality movies all year? Remember that cinemas and movies have to compete with other activities. Also viewers have different amount of money in different months of the year. Also you forget that studios think of movies in terms of precedents. If there was no big openings in september. They assume anything opening in september will do similar numbers. Sometimes they try to break the mold but that only happens with movies they believe in, with a strong brand (GOTG, Captain America 2, Hunger Games etc). So yeah studios assume less people go to cinemas in september. That is why most blockbuster are released in a very narrow period of time. Even with the expanding period of time they are released you can clearly see a trend in US release dates (which still dictate most of Interntational release dates) where movies with better box office potential are given some dates while movies with worse box office potential are given other dates. The wikipedia dump month article is a little outdated but you should read it: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dump_months Also compare biggest september openings ($42m) http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/month/?mo=09&p=.htm to biggest may openings ($207m). The only month with weaker opening dates than september is January ($41m). Please read up before speculating about how the movie business operates. btw. Your name is MazeRunner and you assume the material is good. You are clearly a fan and you are fiercly defending it. Don't deny it just to pretend you are objective.

Young males don't translate into a lot of buzz? They are the most vocal and represented group on the internet. Also we can compare it to Jack the Giant slayer - a Fantasy movie aimed at boys. Also the host had a marketing campaign positioning it as a big sci-fi movie. Also yes Percy Jackson didn't do well, that's another example. Not to mention you haven't seen the movie and if it will be boring it will have little influence on the opening weekend and it won't be big. Also you do realize why big movies rarely open in september? Because it's a month that rarely does good. It's a dumping ground for movies studios don't believe in. That means the distributor (who as opposed to you has seen the movie!!!) does not believe in the movie. You could speculate it's a bold move ala GOTG but that movie was also aimed at young males and it had 10x the buzz, the marketing campaign was much bigger which also suggests lack of faith on the studio part. I know you like the movie and you want it to do well but please look at the facts and be objective.

That probably means they will still try to make a sequel. While it make no sense to release one in the US international buyers will still get it and pay for it, even if it will be smaller companies this time.

Read my previous posts. I can add nothing else. The buzz is lacking, the campaign suggests the distributors don't believe in it and similar movies have not done that well in the past.

What that has to do with me hating YA? I just don't believe in Maze Runner doing well in box office. The movie is not my cup off tea but due to work I will probably see it anyway. Tbh. I'm moderately curious about it since it's fairly original compared to other YA. If you want to talk if it will be good go to IMDB. I'm talking about theatrical results.

Well if Imax gives you hope then those are examples that being in Imax does not translate into results @Fullbuster nothing big? Fury may do really well in France. Also arthouse films do really good there so I doubt you need Maze Runner for results.