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norbar

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Everything posted by norbar

  1. norbar
    Everyone expected more. Remember it's required reading in schools and schools can easily translate to 400-500k viewers alone. Everyone knows the book in Poland and the movie was well reviewed plus it had a really strong marketing push. I think if the PR was handled better and it had less controversy 1mil + was easily possible. You were surprised Kamienie did 800k while say Miasto will do 2/3 of it's admissions in 3 days while both movies feature the same advantages. Miasto is basicly a bigger version of Kamienie na Szaniec. btw. Schools don't always go for premiere week. They bring results but over a long run
  2. norbar
    As long as the kids like it (and I hear they do) that's not a problem. The trailer looks like the movie may be something to barely cross 100m. Though UIP has really strange idas about the movie in my country. First they wanted to go head to head with Paddington (gues which will be the first choice for kids) and now they are going 1 week after Shaun the Sheep which is targeting very similar viewers.
  3. norbar
    The first estimates for Miasto were 4mil viewers. As for coexisting with other movies I think you are overestimating the potential here. Outside of the hobbit movies which are released in a great period of time no movie has made above 2 mil in quite a few years. Kamienie na szaniec and Powstanie Warszawskie both opened much lower than what Miasto would have to open to make 2 mil in 3 weeks (600k+ opening). Also there is already some controversy surrounding the movie. Not as big as with Kamienie na szaniec where the right wing attacked the movie for sex scenes and ambivalent tone but all the people I know who have seen it claim it's even more anti uprising and it has waay more sex. That may translate to some problems with the consiervative crowd. As for Bitwa Warszawska - I know they were expecting much more but if you look at it from todays perspective it's a really good result. Though I'd say that's more thanks to the marketing than because of the movie
  4. norbar
    I'd like to remind you I Frankenstein was also present in Imax cinemas. Same for Robocop
  5. norbar
    Depends on how do you define flop. Bitwa Warszawska was a success if you think how bad the movie was and how much people hated it. Also it still did more than any movie released this year. The real problem is that movie had an insane budget and it should get 3m+ viewers. That's not possible in today's market. There market is way more staturated right now and you have big competition every weekend. Also the next 2 weeks after Miasto 44 you have 2 other huge releases. VUE which owns one cinema network releases Służby Specialne and Next which is agora so cinemas + outdoor + newspapers releases Bogowie which acording to the industry insiders is very good.
  6. norbar
    Who's the "popular among females" star? Also The Host had 10x better marketing materials making it look like a quality sci-fi picture, it had the director of Gattaca, it had Saoirse Ronan and Diane Kruger (bigger name than any of the ones in Maze runner, especially in some Euro countries), it also had a very good song to help promote the movie. What advantages maze runner has in marketing above that? I agree it looks more atractive to males but marketing wise the movie seems to be really hurting and it's awfuly quiet about it so close to release. Not the case for most of the recent bombs in the YA genre.
  7. norbar
    All of the people I asked about it hated the movie, the reviews are bad. The multiplier compared to other Allen movies will be low. The rating on Filmweb so far is decent but comparable to blue jasmine and if it gets the same multiplier it's not awesome. Also the topics on filmweb bash the movie for the most part.
  8. norbar
    I don't know how hard other distros will push it but Divergent had a big push in US 1 month before relese. Maze runner? It's still quiet. Wonder if it will translate to the international strategy
  9. norbar
    I doubt that's a Success for Allen. Last time he scored <60k opening it was Before Before Midnight. Now he has a steady fanbase and he was consistently doing blockbuster openings. THFJ - let's wait for later months. It probably lost a lot since the target group is the same as with Allen, maybe in later weeks the drop will be smaller. The Giver is a surprise. It's still bad and worse than the host which ended <170k but a black and white YA movie in a market where people dislike everything YA not named Hunger Games or Twilight? It was a hard sell from the begining. Dragon is at 977
  10. norbar
    Since when Europe does well with YA adaptations? All recent tries have bombed HARD in europe. I'm basing it on my country where even a great marketing effort and big campaign from the biggest distributor meant nothing. Please look at numbers of Mortal Instruments and Divergent. The movie should be somewhere in between (it looks better than both but Divergent and Mortal instruments books were more popular). Mortal instruments bombed everywhere outside of Russia and Germany (it is a type of movie germans like for some crazy reason) and even there it was far from stellar. I will be surprised if it exceeds 10mil in any euro country. 7-8mil in the biggest markets would be a success.
  11. norbar
    They will make more during the week. Though now the numbers may drop compared to previous week due to the fact that parents may be strapped for cash. I also wonder what's with Barbie being released cinematically and how many copies it will take from other animated movies.
  12. norbar
    You are optimistic. It looks better than mortal instruments or the giver but I think it will have a similar pattern to Jack the giant slayer with around 130-140M international. If the movie is decent I see it going maybe to 170 like Eragon but looking how it shifted dates and how little effort the US distributor has put into creating early hype I doubt it's anything close to that. So in the end 130-140.
  13. norbar
    Little Nicolas is supposedly much worse than the first part. TBH I'm surprised by the result but a bad weather long weekend means parents have to do something with their kids. Cinema is often the obvious option. I also underestimated Tinker Bell. They marketed it smartly as something different than another Tinkerbel movie but I wonder when franchise fatigue will set in. Especially since the next movie is schedguled to enter the cinemas in 6 months. As for EX3 - the result is bad but the drop compared to other countries isn't as steep so I say it's still decent. LUCY - The first place opening doesn't surprise me (though I expected less) but I wonder how steep the drop will be. On the bright side it has no competition till sin city 2 (it's 2 weeks of close to no big releases) but on the other hand people are really confused by the movie. 6.6 on filmweb is a low grade for an effects heavy movie (recent YA flops were rated higher)
  14. norbar
    2nd run has been small lately given how many distributors are willing to open 150copies or more. They help if you are interested in 10k viewers per week but I doubt Fox will be happy about that.. The dragon will be at 1mil but give it 2-3 weeks, maybe more if Giver is above 100 copies and Allen is above 150.
  15. norbar
    Even potential paying customers? That's strange.
  16. norbar
    Hi Nope, just liked it. The weekend results are very good. Though that's hardly a surprise if one followed the reservations in major cities. Btw. Tommorow ? What is your source for results? I though paid industry services informed on them earlier.
  17. norbar
    Movies like THFJ never open good. They are meant for long legs. Remember The best offer last year? 8k opening 80k total. If the new Allen dissapoints viewers THFJ also has a nice chance to get a good result. Especially given nothing really interesting is opening in the next few weeks. I say 120-150k for it is entirely possible. Let's wait and see how the competition performs. Sex Tape is nothing surprising. Smaller cities like raunchy comedies and like the topic of sex. Also the only other broad, simple comedy this summer is French (ie smaller cities will not be intersted) so it's a good slot for it. GOTG is a huge surprise. A lot of Marvel firsts didn't open well in Poland and comic books don't have a stellar track record here. Though the word of mouth is amazing I'm surprised it goes so well. Local viewers usually prefer more conventional movies.
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