TServo2049

Monday may have been deflated by something. It's weird when we have steep Monday drops followed by huge Tuesday bumps.

All I remember of the Cloudy 2 trailers were lots of food puns and screaming.

At least Illumination doesn't have huge budgets. They can afford for one of their movies to disappoint, they won't end up in a DreamWorks situation.

Honestly, I don't think Minions was very good either. After I got out of my showing, I mused to myself that I probably wouldn't remember anything about it in a week. The difference between me and some others, is that I don't regard it as a crime against humanity. Let the kids have their Minions. I'm past the belief that bad movies make people stupider, because they don't. And Illumination's budgets are not a bad thing. IMO the films look fine, the environments fit perfectly into the cartoony aesthetic. And honestly, with animated films I would prefer that the budgets reflect the level of ambition, fluff like this doesn't need Disney budgets.

So it looks like IO is either going to be Pixar's #3 or #2 DOM first run, #3 DOM with re-releases included, either their #2 or #1 original DOM, #2 original DOM with re-releases included, something like their #6 or #7 highest attended DOM (not sure if it would actually beat The Incredibles even at its best potential finish, the BOM adjusted number probably doesn't account enough for premiums?), #4 or #5 highest attended original DOM (again, depending which side of TI's admissions it actually falls on), and their highest-attended original in 11 years. Read that again - if it sells more tickets than Up, it will be Pixar's most attended original since The Incredibles. Heck, depending on whether you count Frozen as "original", this could end up being the highest-attended animated original, PERIOD, since The Incredibles, as well as the highest-attended original DOM post-Avatar (surpassing Inception). With the deluge of CG animation since 2004, and the increase in sequels/franchises, this is amazing.

Still less of a Monday-to-Monday drop than MU against DM2's first Monday. And while the number is slightly less, that was day 18 for MU and this is day 25 for IO. If IO pulls a multiplier identical to MU's after DM2's first Monday, IO gets to $351.6m. And yes, I know that was only MU's first 18 days, not first 25. If you use the 1.12x multiplier off of MU's first 25 days, IO would finish at $321.6m. If you average the two (accounting for IO's better WOM and the lack of late-summer family options), it would finish at $336.6m, just within spitting distance of Nemo's first run.

Even going back before 2011, there are only four more $50m+ animations below a 2.9x: Pokemon 1 (not the worst multiplier off of a Fri-Sun opening, but absolutely the worst off a Wed-Sun: 1.68x!), SpongeBob (2004), Corpse Bride, and TMNT (2007) (worst multiplier off of a Fri-Sun opening: 2.23x) Even adjusted for inflation, Pokemon 2000 would be the only other $50m+ adjusted movie to get worse than a 2.9x.

The found-footage remake of E.T.

The product tie-ins probably paid for a good chunk of that marketing budget...

Comparing MU's weekend and weekly holds with IO's so far, IO's biggest weekend drop so far has been 43.1%, and its biggest weekly drop has been 39.5%. The first time MU had a weekend drop less than 44.3% and a weekly drop less than 42.6% was in its NINTH week.

OK, I just pulled that number out of my ass I guess. Whatever it was, I remember the eventual $25-30m tracking being a steep drop, to the point where the $37m OW was a recovery.

I thought the general consensus prior to MM:FR opening was that it was going to bomb because it sat on the shelf too long, nobody cared about Mad Max, the film was being thrown to the dogs by being put in a crowded summer slot. Or was that only before trailers dropped? Am I misrembering?

So could Pixels be another Pacific Rim style tracking freefall? I remember tracking OW predictions dropping from $50m to as low as $25m as the days went on.

Yeah, that sounds awesome.

Was too busy, I think. Also, I didn't go see any of the 3D re-releases anyway. (I saw Jurassic Park 3D, but in 2D.) Finding Nemo is one of a handful of movies which I didn't see in theaters and will regret not doing so for the rest of my life. (The others would probably be The Iron Giant, Spider-Man 2, Iron Man, How to Train Your Dragon, and Inception.)

Cars 2 is the only Pixar movie I've never seen, and one of only two I didn't see in the theater. (The other is Finding Nemo, because - and this sounds really stupid, because it is - at the time I had a completely irrational hatred of An American Tail and thought Finding Nemo was going to be a similar kind of movie, an overly precious film about a precocious little kid getting separated from his family unit. I loved Pixar, but the trailers somehow made me think it was going to be their jump-the-shark movie. I was 15, of course it doesn't make sense. I saw it on DVD once I heard how good it was from everyone else, and I realized how utterly wrong and fucking stupid I had been, and have been kicking myself ever since.)

isn't animated. Were you thinking of a different movie, possibly

Different studios with different ways of estimating Sunday based on the Friday and Saturday estimates. What do you expect? Studios have to essentially guess the business for a day that hasn't happened yet.

He means if at the end of their runs, you were to subtract the $296.2m first week from JW's final gross, and the difference were to come out equal to IO's total final gross. In short, if they were to end up having made identical amounts of money from June 19th to the end of their runs. For example if JW were to end its run with $650m, and IO were to end its run with $353.8m.

This weekend, Inside Out broke an obscure record: Highest-grossing film to only have one #1 weekend, which wasn't its wide OW. Previous record holder was The Blind Side, and IO will also end up beating the admissions of the adjusted record-holder, There's Something About Mary. (FYI, the highest-grossing film to only rank #1 on its OW is Deathly Hallows Part II. The highest-attended is Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom, which was narrowly beaten out on its second weekend by Star Trek III - by less than $300k unadjusted and less than $700k adjusted! And they were both released by the same studio! - and then fell to third when Ghostbusters/Gremlins opened.)

Yeah, for a while I was worried Aladdin might turn into the Disney Renaissance equivalent of Song of the South. Even Pocahontas got a Blu-Ray release in the States before Aladdin did. As a boy growing up in the Disney Renaissance, Aladdin was probably my favorite. I remember watching it on video more times than I can count, and my younger brother remembers the same. (Even after we bought The Lion King on video, I think I may have still watched Aladdin more.)

hey red firebird, you were talking about a Jedi to TPM bump, I realized I should have given you the grosses for the original runs of the entire Star Wars trilogy: SW77: $221.3 million ESB: $181.4 million Jedi: $252.6 million So that makes the original run admissions: SW77 - 99 million ESB - 67 million ROTJ - 80 million It was a small bump to be sure, so you're right that Episode VII needs a bigger bump. Also, while the segment of the population who hated TPM was smaller during the theatrical run, the film did get mixed reviews, and there were people disappointed or even angered. We just didn't hear much about it then (and more people seemed to turn against it after it left theaters - myself included). ESB's admissions drop is surprising, the film actually did get a mixed reception from audiences. (ESB's statute grew in the 90s, as the kids who saw it grew up, examined it from a more mature viewpoint, and embraced it. Watch the scene in Clerks where Dante talks about the downer ending, and life being a downer ending. Also pay attention to Randal's "blasphemy" remark that Dante prefers Empire to Jedi - I used to think that was just sarcasm, but in the early 90s, I'm not sure Empire was yet seen as the superior movie...) But a key difference between then and now is that it was not EXPECTED to outdo Star Wars in any way. And also interestingly, the "darker/more introspective sequel drops from more upbeat mass-appeal original" effect seems to be in line with what would later happen to Batman Returns (though that had controversy over content as well), Spider-Man 2, and How to Train Your Dragon 2. (And Kung Fu Panda 2 as well? Never saw it, that's why I ask.)

Yeah, TPM did have "disappointing" reactions at the time, though the absolute venom against it did not come to a head until after it left theaters. But at the same time, it did do crazy good, just not Titanic crazy good; until Avengers, it was the film I saw the most times in theaters. Weren't the long legs for TPM in part due to Fox/Lucasfilm locking theaters into playing the film for an extremely long time, rather than the film being voluntarily held over by theaters due to popularity/business like Titanic was?

Hey, redfirebird, how much would Star Wars' $221 million first run translate to? You say BOM doesn't properly adjust, and I know they incorrectly lump $86 million of re-release grosses in with the original run.