Wrath

I do think you think you're perhaps the only one with a shot at getting the top 4 right in order, but I think expecting 13 or 14/15 is wildly optimistic.

I actually liked Alice. Wasnt great but was more fun than most folks said.

Yeah, that week was hilarious. I think I abstained so I didnt pay much attention to everyone's answers so I didnt realize everyone was trying to be wrong. When the results came in below expectations I was happy because I assumed everyone was screwed. But since everyone was TRYING to be wrong, people still got really good scores by accidentally getting them all right.

Pixar could make a fortune through porn, but I'm doubtful they'll go in that direction. Entertaining to speculate on, though.

Johnson and Hart are well-known but people wildly overestimate how successful their movies are. My predict has been 90-100m all along for this, because it'd be a slightly above average result for a movie by either of them.

CI getting 13 on Friday instead of 11-12 is huge for its chances of breaking 100.

Hows that WW looking?

Watterson will never, ever go for it. He's got more money than he can spend, is rabidly publicity phobic, and is vehemently against commercializing his work. It took a decade of work to get him to agree to an *interview*. Its like Moore with Watchmen. No matter what you did, they'd hate the fact that you were doing it at all.

Dammit! All my answers went poof and this is such a pita to do on a phone. Argh. 1. Y 2. Y 3, Y 4. Y 5. Y 6. N 7. N 8. 3 9. Y 10. N 11. N 12. N 13. Sat 14. Y 15. Y 16. N 17. N 18. N 19. Y 20. Y 21. Y 22. Y 23. Y 24. Y 25. I'm too disappointed in you to respond. 1. 18m 2. 49.5% 3. 406.5m 3. Conjuring 5. Warcraft 7. Me before you 10. Alice 13. Live and Friendship 15. Nice Guys

And as a result, Chewy moved on despite the lowest score of anyone who answered the questions. I hope the better grades, brighter career, higher lifetime earnings and a life more filled with knowledge were worth it. Edit - Usually Ive looked through a ton of stuff and have lots of data at this point, but I wont even be back to my computer until Sunday so I seriously feel blind.

Deadline will be 5 pm, US eastern time. Roughly.

Central Intelligence - 34.5m Finding Dory - 128m

Predicts are kinda the life blood of this site so I ask that you be sure to post this in the Weekend Predict thread as well. The concern being that it'll get over-looked here.

I'm traveling and am stuck using my phone until Sunday, so no number crunching until next Monday. But this is hardly a week we can let slip through the cracks! So, please post your weekend predicts for new openers for 6/17-19: Central Intelligence Finding Dory Dealine will be sometime Thursday afternoon, but I wont be posting aggregates until Monday. As before, our official predict is the mean of our results.

Oh, this question has me written all over it! Abstain

I'm liking this SotM more than I expected.

How is Deadline expecting Warcraft to get to $31M after an ~8M Friday?

I know there are people out there who don't like GotG, but I simply can't fathom it. A couple weeks ago, we were thinking of staying home and watching a movie with the kids and Mrs Wrath's first suggestion was GotG. To be fair, she knows that the kids and I both loved it, but she (not usually a fan of action movies) commented that she actually thought it was fun to watch. I suspect she just thinks Chris Pratt is cute, but I'm fine with any excuse to watch that movie.

I was a prot pally tank (and fairly active theorycrafter) in a semi-serious raiding guild from Burning Crusade through Cataclysm, and took over as GL for a while after that. Only finally quit raiding at the end of Panda-ville, plus both my kids have leveled characters. I've also been a beta tester for everything they've done in the last 10 years, including Overwatch. Believe me, I know how deep its fanbase runs. But I also know how much of its fanbase its LOST. We'll see. As it happens, I'm heading out to see it with the kids + their friends right now...

This was a tough one. Lots of time crunching numbers.

Now You See Me 2 - 2000 Ice Age - 4000 Conjuring 2 - 3000 Pets - 8000 BFG - 3000

Part 1 ~ answer yes/no unless otherwise stated (UOS) and are worth 1000 points each UOS. They also only refer to the top 12 UOS. (Read them carefully ) 1) Will Warcraft open to less than $35M? *YES* 2) Will Warcraft open to less than $27M? 2000 *YES* 3) Will Warcraft open to less than $19M? *NO* 4) Will The Conjuring open to less than $40M? *YES* 5) Will The Conjuring open to less than $32M? *NO* 6) Will The Conjuring open to less than $24M? *NO* 7) The Conjuring open to more than double Warcraft? *NO* 8) Will NYSM2 open to more than $22M? *YES* 9) Will NYSM2 Open to more than Warcraft? 3000 *YES* 10) Will the top 3 positions all be new entries? *YES* 11) Will Xmen stay above Me Before You? *YES* 12) Will Neighbours remain in the top 10? 2000 *NO* 13) Will Jungle Book cross $350M ON Saturday (not before, but on)? *NO* 14) Will Popstar have a weekend below $2M? *YES* 15) Will Civil War have a better Friday increase than Angry Birds? 3000 *YES* 16) Will Kung Fu Panda 3 finish above Deadpool? *YES* 17) Will Zootopis have a low weekend drop than every film that finishes above it (excluding any films that increase)? *NO* 18) Will The Huntsman have a Sunday drop above 31%? *YES* 19) Will Me Before you have a higher PTA within $1,000 of TMNT? 3000 *YES* 20) Will The Lobster drop less than 10% this weekend? *NO* 21) Will BvS stay above the Man who Knew Infinity? *YES* 22) Will Alice Stay above Angry Birds? 2000 *NO* 23) Will any of the 3 big new openers decrease on Saturday? *YES* 24) We me before You drop less than 25% on Sunday? *NO* 25) Will more than 31% of all words written in the upcoming weekend thread be the word: 'China'? *Sadly, no. Maybe we can fix that next week.* Bonuses 18/25 - 2000 19/25 - 4000 20/25 - 6000 21/25 - 9000 22/25 - 12000 23/25 - 15000 24/25 - 20000 25/25 - 25000 Part 2 ~ The closest predictor for each question scores 5000 UOS 1. What will be the combined weekend gross of the three main new openers? 83.5M 2. What will be the difference in dollars between NYSM2 and Warcraft's Saturday Gross? 1.7M 3. What will Popstar's percentage drop be? 58% Part 3 ~ predict which film finishes in the places given. (2000 per film) 1. Conjuring 2 3. Warcraft 5. Me Before You 10. Jungle Book 13. Love & Friendship 15. Lobster

No, in case anyone is curious, I have no idea what happens with the formatting when I do those. I mean, I know its a result of cutting and pasting, but I don't know how to make it stop and I'm not going to type everything out by hand every time.

Deadline dropped the ball this week, apparently so wrapped up in Warcraft's impressive overseas performance that they failed to run a piece on domestic projections. MovieWeb continued its tradition of bizarre predicts for another week, going with 19.5M for Conjuring 2 and 42.3M for Warcraft. To be fair, we had lower predicts for Conjuring 2 and higher for Warcraft, but that's why we do Medians now. Also interesting, I suspect Warcraft is the most uncertain we've ever been on a movie for which we expect a decently high OW. Typically, Ratio is inversely proportional to a movie's expected OW and once you get over 20M or so, its typically in the the 20% kinda range. NYSM 2's 29.90% would be notable high for a movie expected to open over 20M, except that Warcraft is at 42.50%. Conveniently, we tend to do better on movies with higher Ratio's (ie. Movies we have less consensus on its OW total), so maybe that means we'll nail Warcraft. Also, Warcraft probably has the biggest gap between our Mean and Median predictions of any movie we've predicted. Compared to other sites, we're moderately optimistic on Conjuring 2, slightly pessimistic on NYSM 2 (except for MovieWeb's nuttiness), and slightly optimistic on Warcraft. Also, as a reminder, our prediction numbers are now the median result, rather than the mean result, of everyone's picks and revised StnDev is the standard deviation of the predictions, including the other web-sites. As usual, I totaled all predicts (26 for everything) and here are the results: Conjuring 2 Mean: 39.2M Median: 39.5M StnDev: 8.07M (revised StnDev: 10.72M) Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 20.44% High: 55.6M Low: 16.7M BO.com 33.5M Deadline MovieWeb 19.5M ShowBuzzDaily 35M Variety 35M Now You See Me 2 Mean: 21.1M Median: 20.7M StnDev: 6.19M (revised StnDev: 7.07) Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 29.9% High: 37M Low: 9.2M BO.com 27M Deadline MovieWeb 15.2M ShowBuzzDaily 26.5M Variety 23M Warcraft Mean: 29.5M Median: 26.5M StnDev: 11.26M (revised StnDev: 11.97) Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 42.50% High: 70M Low: 16M BO.com 21M Deadline MovieWeb 42.3M ShowBuzzDaily 23M Variety 25M

Well, the good news is that you're *extremely* unlikely to be our worst predictor, ever.