Infernus
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Posts posted by Infernus
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I believe in $500 as well. It already pre-sold that many tickets.
Then I must say you are quite pessimistic. For though I know its not gonna be easy, I think it can reach to a Thousand dollars too.
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$85m would not be a surprise.
Yeah that would be as per expectations (albeit pretty high ones taking into account the weekdays). My prediction is just like most others'. So when I said its gonna surprise everyone, I meant me too.
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Summer weekdays =/= school weekdays.
I feel like we've made this point a few times now, lol.
Yeah, but 33m is a big sum to be covered and passed in a mere 4 weekdays, whatever advantage one may have.
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I still believe close to 85m 2nd weekend can happen. Something tells me that the second weekend isn't gonna play as per any norms and is going to surprise us all.
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So, in other words, this will already be behind The Dark Knight by its 4th weekday, after a 33m weekend headstart.
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Nothing to panic, of course, but the drop is definitely not good. It should have stayed flat today. If anything, this signals that the holds for the movie aren't gonna be that good. Although we should also keep in mind that this has, as of now atleast, come across as a weekend movie. There should be a healthy increase tomorrow but if this is any indication (unlike the first 2 weekdays) of the movie's run to follow, then I think 12.5-12.8m admissions is the highest this will reach.
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Films that have failed to live up to the hype this year so far:
Dragon Blade (General expectation: 1B+; actuals: 738m)
Zhong Kui - Snow Girl And The Dark Crystal (General expectation: 1B+; actuals: 404m)
Somewhere Only We Know (General expectation: 400m+; actuals: 280m)
Dad Where Are We Going 2 (General expectation: 500m+; actuals: 221m)
Silent Separation (General expectation: 700m; actuals: 370m)
Helios (General expectation: 400m; actuals: 230m)
Besides that, Let's Get Married, Lost and Love, Ever Since We Love and Kungfu Hustle 3D, among others, also posted softer than expected numbers.
And what are the films that have performed as per high expectations or even exceeded them?
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Is Jurassic World a lock for $250M in China?
No. Far from it actually. 200m will be a hopeful prediction I believe. I think its going to be huge but 250m, although slightly possible, is a little too much IMO.
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AOU should make as much as, or atleast come close to, FF7's first monday (also its second day). If it does pass it, 250m would pretty much be a lock for it unless it collapses or has very unexpected drops.
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I don't think this is gonna have a multiplier higher than 3. Infact 2.8-2.9 is the most I think its getting. There hasn't been enough growth in the market for this to beat the previous record by 31% (46.5% when factoring the drop in exchange value since 2012) and reach even 80m let alone 90m. I am seeing 75m as the roof for this right now.
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So.... it will finish with 2.4B+ (around 390M)..... an awesome result.
Wonder what would be the first movie to hit 400m? or 500m?
Unless another local or foreign movie breaks out before it, the first to 400m should be Kungfu Panda 3 in early 2016. If it gets released on Chinese new year, then even 500m is highly possible for it.
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You know, I knew you were gonna reply with something like this and was thus thinking about ending mh post with something like - "What did 'you' expect for this movie?"That's a deflection of the real failure. Those paid professionals? They got it wrong. They also got it wrong with TA. That's twice.
The faulty predictions are the "disappointment". The movie did great. There is no possible way the 2nd biggest OW of all time is disappointing. Failing to match one of the most impressive feats in box office history is certainly not disappointing....that's realistic. Expecting that to happen and then blaming the movie is just an attempt to salvage the ego. Admitting you blew it is a lot harder than pointing a finger at the movie for not matching your faulty prediction.
Anyways my post wasn't about this movie or just for defending calling this a disappointment. Althiugh its wrong to look at the few times the professionals turned out wrong while ignoring the many many times they end up pretty close. Anyways my post was about you saying that if we aren't happy with a movie for not breaking OW record or something similar than we should never be happy with a movie unless it does break records and that our thoughts should hold true for every single movie. Succes and failure in box office is very subjective and failure to understand this very essence of box office tracking means one knows nothing about box office was what I was saying in my post. Reply to that.
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SK is just an unbelievable market. 11.5m is a given now if it performs as per expectations tomorrow and doesn't just collapse after that.
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12 % is a weak exchange rate in terms of financial impact. Three year of inflation and ticket price increase is likely to nullify and even outprice the drop of the currency value. It's not a 40%+ drop like Brasil that wouldn't be compensate by inflation.
With such a small drop and three years of inflation, any demand increase should have an impact o the revenue, especally when it's about the second most popular country of the latine american region for this franchise.
Basicly if Brasil show that the demand has increased through admission numbers, Mexico is liKely to experience the same and have a higher admission numbers for AOU compared to TA.
And since the impact of the weaker exchange rate in that country is much lower and certainly lower than 3 years of inflation and ticket price rise, the drop of currency value can't impact negatively the increase of the demand...revenue should increase higher than your projected numbers.
Now I dont know about the inflation in ticket prices in Mexico but I doubt it is enough to negate the weak currency but even if it is then too 80m would mean an increase of 31% which is just too much especially when that predecessor is also still the highest grossing movie ever. As I said that is equal to Avatar 2 beating Avatar in US in 2012 (after 3 years of inflation, that is) by 230m (and i am not factoring in the decrease in curremcy value here, that would mean increase of 350m).
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It seems that Audi has bought all midnights IMAX tickets of Wanda Cinemas and sells for 1 cent per ticket for some self-promotion.
In other words, all midnight IMAX shows of Wanda Cinemas are sold?
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You certainly aren't going to enjoy following box office very often. Fast 7? Yawn....only 10th place OW. But wait! It was much better worldwide! It was....oh wait.....2nd place. Darn....not worth remembering.
Remember that you can't just pick and choose when you apply "nobody remembers 2nd place". If you think that's true, it's also going to be true for other movies which fail to break the OW record. So if that phrase is a thing....it will be a thing later too
Well yeah we can. If a movie was highly expected by a number of paid professionals to break the OW record than we are going to be disappointed when it misses by a good margin while no ones gonna be disappointed or not gonna take note when an ignored movie gets into even the top 20 list. That is why box office and success and disappointment in this field is a very subjective and dependent thing. If you don't even understand that and think that the same measures for success and failure should be applied to all movies than you know nothing about box office.
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I wouldn't take this as a good news if I were you, more like another over-estimation.
AOU would be lucky to get anywhere close to 300m let alone surpassing it. The movie has no appeal to the older generation unlike FF7.
Yeah and Transformers had? Sorry but avengers 2 appeals to a much larger audience than FF7 even if not a very varied audience. Its much more of what the Chinese like and they have loved most Marvel movies. There was a reason we were already expecting this to gross between 200-250m when we were expecting something close to 150m for FF7. Maybe this is a little over-estimation but its definitely gonna come close to this.
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Here is the thing though : there isnt a weak exchange rate between the peso and the dollar.
Slightly weak exchange rate : yes but much weaker that it completely erase or negate both increase in ticket price and admission ? Absolutely NOT ! Not since the mexican currency has been tied to the dollar to limit those exchange rate fluctuations.
Mexico is the south american market with the lowest exchange rate fluctuation compared to the dollar. That's why, from the get go, it was the one south american market where expections of an increase were much more projected compared to Brasil and its money devaluation.
The currency is 12% weaker, 12%! Thatsa really notable difference. I don't even think there's gonna be a 12% increase in admissions. And if you think it can grow 31 % in total gross from its predecessor (also the highest grossing movie yet which is like a movie beating Avatar in US in 2012 by 230m) to 80m and that too after a 12% decline in currency (which is like beating avatar in 2012 in US by 350m) then you only have my consolations.
Also mexico is a North american country. It and Brazil are both latin american countries though.
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Yeah the admissions would increase but the effect would be heavily dimNished due to weak exchange rates. And there is no way this will have a multiplier close to Avengers. Its multiplier may be better than FF7's but still no way its going to get higher than 3. Anyways I had predicted 75m (which was very optimistic) for this in mexico prior to its release and right now that seems to be the roof for this and there's almost 0 chance of this passing that unless the Mexican audience is just stunned by this. Even 70m would be beating the previous highest grossing record by 14.75 % in Dollars and even more in local currency. So lower your expectations if you don't wanna be disappointed and just enjoy the fact that its outgrossing TA1 like Fullbuster.Isn't FF7 in the same situation ?
A beloved sequel, featuring Paul Walker role in his fetish role for thevery last time ?
Quite frankly the hype for both sequels to me were on par for different reasons. It's pretty obvious as to how much FF7 exploded from FF6 to FF7 from opening weekends to legs. The demand was just suddenly bigger all around.
So to me nothing suggests at this stage that AOU has somewhat asorbed the bulk of demand on its huge opening weekend because of hype and that the demand hasn't increased from TA instead.
Besides, comparing it to TA legs (3.55 multiplier), which is a more suitable comparison would put it at $90.5M with the same TA legs.
So $80M is a good guess between what a movie has done and what a 50% increase of its sequel opening weekend could reach with a lesser multiplier.
Granted inflation, putting it at the same amount as TA or a little higher would suggest that the demand hasn't inreased in the second most popular south american market for that franchise, when most of them especially Brasil show that if not for the overall number the admission one has increased from TA's.
So why would Brasil demand/admission number increase and not Mexico ?
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I dont understand how anybody can think this will not even make 450m. It got an 'A' cinemascore! Thats really really good and kind of ends all doubts about WOM. I had thought this will get B at the most. This is going to play like MJ1 - lower than expected OW but higher than expected Multiplier. There's no way this won't even have a multiplier of 2.4. I am thinking of a 2.55-2.6 Multiplier for something between 490-500m.
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With a $25M wknd, I don't see why it can't get close to $80M if not surpass it.
I can't do anything about what you 'see'. As for me, here's what I 'see' - FF7 broke the OW record with 21.5m and its looking very difficult for it to reach even 55m total as of now. With the same multiplier AOU would reach around 62m, almost exactly what TA1 made. Now i don't see why it will have a much better multiplier than FF7 when its presales, hype and sequel-status all point out to its fronloadedness. As such even 70m in itself seems a little too much for it. Thus even my 60-70m range is actually a lttle high and optimistic. It isn't too bad though, even 63m would mean highest grossing movie in Mexico even after much worse exchange rates than the previous record holder (Avengers 1 with 61.7m).
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So far, Mexico, South Korea and the UK can all potentially hit $80+ M each, right ?
Around 95m in SK, a little over 80m in UK and something between 60-70m in Mexico seem to be the most possible final grosses in these markets as of now. So around 235-250m in total from these markets.
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OS-C China OS Dom WW Alucard 900.0 300.0 1200.0 650.0 1850.0 AxelSteal 950.0 350.0 1300.0 650.0 1950.0 Quigley 840.0 280.0 1120.0 630.0 1750.0 Pypa94 855.0 302.0 1157.0 593.0 1750.0 fmpro 815.0 265.0 1080.0 575.0 1655.0 The Stingray 850.0 300.0 1150.0 500.0 1650.0 Infernus 825.0 285.0 1110.0 565.0 1675.0 Ent . 1100.0 550.0 1650.0 GokaiRed 825.0 250.0 1075.0 575.0 1650.0 Mattw 800.0 300.0 1100.0 525.0 1625.0 picres 750.0 300.0 1050.0 550.0 1600.0 MikeTheAvenger 850.0 200.0 1050.0 550.0 1600.0 Johnny Storm 810.0 265.0 1075.0 525.0 1600.0 AD3S 1000.0 590.0 1590.0 peludo 750.0 275.0 1025.0 550.0 1575.0 Fake 800.0 250.0 1050.0 500.0 1550.0 Keysersoze 750.0 300.0 1050.0 500.0 1550.0 Deathlife 1010.0 525.0 1535.0 Cynosure 750.0 250.0 1000.0 525.0 1525.0 Katch 22 800.0 200.0 1000.0 520.0 1520.0 M F Lawrence 725.0 250.0 975.0 500.0 1475.0 samsha22 715.0 235.0 950.0 505.0 1455.0 Average 808.4 271.4 1074.0 552.4 1626.4
Its looking like the winner will be in the bottom half of the group unless there is a big hold next week in both OD and DOM
Funny, and yet sad, to think that there are good chances of this grossing less DOM than even the lowest prediction for DOM here. Really disappointing. I am still optimistic for OS though. Anything between 1 to 1.1B OS is still very possible.
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It's like MCU movies...
No, only like AOU.
Top Animated movies in China(Updated on Oct.12th, 2015)
in China At The Box Office
Posted · Edited by Infernus
Its literally surprising and shocking (well, i knew this already so not actually to me)that in a market that has grown to nearly triple of what it was 5 years ago, A movie from 2011 still tops this table and with a 100m yuan lead, no less. There's no way in Hell KFP3 ends below 400m $ next year.