Infernus
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Posts posted by Infernus
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If it opens on CNYD next year, I think $80M/600M is likely, 70M/500M is locked
So around 7-7.5 times its OD?
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KFP3 opening on Chinese New years day, $100M OD in play!
I just can't wait for it, Both the movie and its Chinese box office run. What will its final no. be if thats the OD? 500m?
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This market obviously still has huge room for growth just from ticket price inflation.
Just imagine what would happen in India with ticket prices like U.S.
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One thing I'm sure of is that whatever its Friday total numbers are, its 2nd weekend numbers will be very close to that.
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So is that a guess or an actual number from somewhere?
Just a guess.
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34-36m previews
97m Friday total
213m OW
This is slightly conservative though and I believe that both friday and OW can increase to 101m and 217m.
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Will you just stop No Prisoners? We all respect firedeep mich more than you. He is one of the most knowledgeable about this market and his predictions are the best, closest and most reasonable. And it was you who started the fight without any reason except for you just trying to shine out and seizing the opportunity to channel your jealousy for firedeep. He only, in a very friendly manner, said that your prediction seemed a little too off. He didn't even criticize you to the slightest for it even though it was indeed quite foolish. And you bited 'back' asking him to not think he is omnipotent and whatnot.Again, one last time, it was an observation of historical data proposing a possible outcome. That's the fun of figuring out a run, not just assuming all will drop 75% and telling other people what to ignore it. You made a comment on my post all the while publishing a prediction of 30-25-18 for the weekend. you are now saying 62-62-43. Thats 100% more (or shall I say 100% wrong (yes you fail)) than your thoughtless prediction and you have the audacity to tell me to chill down? Get a clue. Then again....
Apparently you just did and the statement is genius, the fact that you are clueless. Most truthful thing I heard all week. Thank You
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OS-C China OS Dom WW Alucard 900.0 300.0 1200.0 650.0 1850.0 AxelSteal 850.0 300.0 1150.0 650.0 1800.0 Quigley 840.0 280.0 1120.0 630.0 1750.0 Pypa94 855.0 302.0 1157.0 593.0 1750.0 fmpro 815.0 265.0 1080.0 575.0 1655.0 The Stingray 850.0 300.0 1150.0 500.0 1650.0 Infernus 800.0 285.0 1085.0 565.0 1650.0 Ent 1100.0 550.0 1650.0 GokaiRed 825.0 250.0 1075.0 575.0 1650.0 Mattw 800.0 300.0 1100.0 525.0 1625.0 picres 750.0 300.0 1050.0 550.0 1600.0 Johnny Storm 810.0 265.0 1075.0 525.0 1600.0 AD3S 1000.0 590.0 1590.0 peludo 750.0 275.0 1025.0 550.0 1575.0 Fake 800.0 250.0 1050.0 500.0 1550.0 Keysersoze 750.0 300.0 1050.0 500.0 1550.0 Deathlife 1010.0 525.0 1535.0 Cynosure 750.0 250.0 1000.0 525.0 1525.0 Katch 22 800.0 200.0 1000.0 520.0 1520.0 No Prisoners 725.0 250.0 975.0 500.0 1475.0 samsha22 715.0 235.0 950.0 505.0 1455.0 Average 799.2 272.6 1066.8 552.5 1619.3
I think I got everyone. 6 more hours to post time.
No extreme optimists going for 700m DOM or 2B WW? Korea is coming back like Elvis
I still think Europa shits the bed this weekend.
Since there's still time I'd like to increase my OS-C prediction to 825m.
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Yeah I know but the prophecy about him is that Oedipus kills his dad to take his place on the throne so he could bang his mom. Oedipus is not all about the incestuous love to your mom, despising the dad to the point of commiting patricide and replace him as well.
Do you guys actually know anything about Oedipus? He didn't kill his dad coz he hated him, it was just a mistake. Similarly, he didn't bang his mom knowingly. He was abandoned as an infant which was why he couldn't recognize his own parents. When these mistakes finally came to light, he punished himself by blinding himself and stuff. Also Oedipan Complex is a psychological term that denotes the suppressed sexual desires one feels towards the parent of the opposite sex as a child.
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My prediction -
OS without China - 800
China - 285m
DOM-565m
WW-1.65B
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If this ends below Interstellar, this will be the ultimate disappointment of all time, for me, in SK
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10M is defintely not locked now but its still not in much danger. As things are now, there are still more chances of it making more than 10m than of it not doing so.That's...... ummmm.....not good!
10M is in danger!
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What are its chances of making it past 90m now? 15%?
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It's happened many times.
WW winners:
TS3 (#3 OS)
TTT (#2 OS)
Shrek 2 (#2 OS)
The ones who won their respective years worldwide but weren't number 1 overseas. They all happen to have been beaten by the Potter films.
Ah! The potter movies were uncomparable and unbeatable OS. Who knows how much they'd have made today.
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Should end up making around, most possibly even more than, 1.15 OS and 1.7 B WW.
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CGV is the biggest multiplex theatre chain in Korea. They did a breakdown of the audience demography
10-20: 2.7%
20-30: 44.4%
30-40: 36.3%
40-50:16.7%
The biggest demography is currently 30s and 40s age group. The teenage demography has a pretty low share and I think its because exams are still not over. They could boost numbers next week.
That's good. Teens are supposed to be the target audience. If they have such a low share that means there's is still quite some room for growth in numbers.
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What multiplier should be expected? 100m would require greater than 3.5.
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The 13% decline doesn't seem very good to me
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The release schedule is why we at the chinese thread didn't start saying that north of 300m$ is a lock for this movie, even though this is much more tailor-made for the chinese audience than F7, as soon as F7 started making such astonishing numbers.coz release schedule i think
but i hope for a boomAlso, most movies lose a majority of their screems by their second weekend anyways, regardless of competition.
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Also you guys are highly underestimating AOU in china. 250m is not the max for it there, instead its closer to being the min. It can gross anything from 250 to 300. We were expecting around 250m for it when we were expecting around 170 for F7. F7 went on to gross more than double of that. I don't see why AOU can't atleast increase a little.
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How could TA2 get only half the number of screens FF7 got? TA1 was successful in India...
This is from the distributors -
"While Avengers: Age Of Ultron too will have outstanding numbers from its India theatrical release, it may not be as big as Fast and Furious 7, courtesy a very simple release – the relative release size! While Fast and Furious 7 had released on the E-Cinema projection systems too, Avengers: Age Of Ultron will limit itself to the 2K digital projection platforms only, like all the major Hollywood film studios do. So, against the 2300 (approx) screens that Fast and Furious 7 released in, Avengers: Age Of Ultron may release only in about 1200 screens. However, if you look at the screen-wise collections, I’m quite sure Avengers: Age Of Ultron will score well over Fast and Furious 7."
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As for India, AOU opened in around half the no of screens F7 opened in and still lost by a very small margin.
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I like your optimism but it's too high I think. It will most likely be similar to yesterday which is still fine considering most films drop quite a bit on Sunday.
I know that but I'm hoping this breaks the 'average movie' style of run and comes out to surprise us
. Actually I'd be pretty happy with even just 1.1M too though. -
So the second weekend can also be better than TA1's? And how good is this weekend from TA1 in terms of dollars? And could the second weekend remain atleast on flat with the TA1 in terms of dollars?That's a fantastic number. Hopefully around £18m opening then, which is $27.3m. Great increase from TA's £15.6m.
AoU's 2nd weekend falls on bank holiday weekend, Monday is a public holiday, which means the drop should be softened.
but i hope for a boom
. Actually I'd be pretty happy with even just 1.1M too though.
Kung Fu Panda 3 | 1/29/2016 | New Trailer on Page 26!
in Box Office Discussion
Posted · Edited by Infernus
So my early predictions for this (if this opens in China on Chinese New Year) -
210m DOM (I'm hoping this turns out to be a great movie with enough WOM for around this much DOM)
450m OS minus China (I am being a little cautious)
540m China (I am counting on you JohnnyStorm for this insane no. to actually turn out true)
1.2B WW. 3rd or 2nd Highest grossing movie of the Year (Behind Civil War and close to BvS)
Yeah my china number is a little too much but i'll see how the rest of this year goes in China. If no other movie is able to come even close to FF7's 390m, then I'll drop it down to 440m. If a number of movies come close to this and a few local movies break out heavily and a number of Foreign movies also gross more than than 200m, I'll let this stay at 500m+. Either way, 1B worldwide seems almost locked for this to me.