POTUS 2020
-
Posts
6,296 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
1
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Blogs
Gallery
Annual Subscriptions
Media Demo
Posts posted by POTUS 2020
-
-
54 minutes ago, Steven said:
Frozen2 now have a chance to reach 780m
99.44%
-
17 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:
Wondering if Frozen 2 will bump on Sunday. Shows are 11k more than Saturday and PS are also higher by good share. If it do, will be nice.
6
31
31 // 68 -61%
With Sunday just 55% down from Week 2, weekdays hold will be better too.
Looks like today will bump and the weekend (sat-sun) will be down less than 60% after all. 800m/$114m looking good w/o ext
They are opening SW9 against IP4 which already has 1.3m PS. They threw that one away. SW9 not listed for PS yet
-
1
-
-
2 hours ago, PKMLover said:
Any chance F2 wont recieve an extension?
50/50 is my guess, they were regularly giving extensions to anything that would make 20m more but lately they have been iffy.
4 hours ago, Arendelle Legion said:With just 11.8 PS and less than 3.3x Friday PSm I was honestly considering a small Sat drop.
True
4 hours ago, a2k said:JUM3 could miss $25 ow
61 + 65 + 44 (-32%) = 170 ($24+ using today's EXR)
So $40 total I guess. Same as JUM2's ow.
Just $36m is possible
-
1
-
-
7 hours ago, Arendelle Legion said:
Jumanji and F2 both doing better than I expected today. Tomorrow PS are more in line with its score.
j2 coming in flat, thats better than expected? doesn't get much worse except for power rangers. expect -33% tomorrow and down 90% next weekend which is good for F2.
F2 coming in at 31m -65% WoW, I thought -50-60% would have happened but the new releases took a lot of shows. Next weekend is lighter in releases and PS, with F2's high PTA it should retain a better % of shows.
Likely Projection
Sun 25m 729m Tot
M-F 15m 744m
S-S 27m 771m -50% WoW
M-F 7m 778m
S-S 13m 791m/$113m 5th and last weekend w/o ext
Ext 50m+ 845m/$120m+ possible
-
1
-
-
-
25 minutes ago, danhtruong5 said:
How much can holiday bump can it get? When will the holiday start there?
If its PTA continues to hold(and gets ext) up it could make 50m+ from dec 25th (small bump) and dec31/jan1 (bigger bump) and get to mid 800s/$120m.
AQM managed to make 200m+ from dec 25th to jan2
Coco made 100m
Both were thought to crushed by new releases but their high PTA kept them in theaters
-
4 hours ago, Steven said:
Frozen more like 730m by the end of the run
Maybe 730m by tomorrow night.
At 20m already today 694m total.
It has by far the highest PTA with 18% rev and 10% shows. New releases are close to flat rev% to show% or worse
Bodes well for a good hold next week.
With a possible ext and holiday bump 800m+ still on table. 775m$100m floor for now
-
4
-
-
They gave the new releases 85% of shows, the highest I've ever seen for just 120m in BO
J2 with just 61m for OD, a little over 3x PS. Tomorrow PS looking weak. Won't bump much, $26-28m OW.
KO and F2 took a hit just a few % of shows. They will double up on shows tomorrow. F2 PS up 300%+
Chinese audience has matured, its treating many sub par sequels like the rest of the world now.
-
5
-
1
-
-
J2 having a PS run this week like an 80m+ PS run. Less than 30% bumps Mon-Wed and less than 70% today, unusual. Maybe Maoyan is off an we get a 4+ PSm. Otherwise it looks like low $30m's for OW.
PS slowing down and will finish below 19m at 3am
-
3
-
1
-
-
2 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:
¥300mn Black Widow May Day OD. Could set record for previews at around ¥40-50mn, with next day being Holiday. Perhaps ¥700-750mn OW.
What say @A Marvel Fanboy @POTUS 2020
Im not much of a forecaster. Cant say until PS start
Is BW expected to break out like VNM and AQM instead falling into the usual 700-1000m range?
-
J2 PS at 9m for tues mite. Not bumping 40% daily. PS may finish low 20s.
On track for $35-40m OW unless the PSm is higher than recent releases(3.5+) or a high rating
-
1 hour ago, Valonqar said:
So what lifetime totals for KO and F2 can we expect in China?
KO $30-40m, need to see weekday holds if it can do 40m
F2 $120m+ if it holds -50% against J2, which I think it will. 6 releases took 75% of shows and made 90m on Fri. J2 and other releases may take 70% of shows and make 120m. F2 should hold well again come saturday
-
2
-
-
5 hours ago, 1Robert1 said:
What is your expectation for Jumanji?
J2 PS will get over 5m tonight.
I project mid 20s, possibly 30m final PS.
$40-50m OW
J1 OD 74m OW 268m/$41.5m Tot 492m/$76m @ ¥6.45 to $1
-
1
-
-
On 11/30/2019 at 10:42 AM, A Marvel Fanboy said:
Not a breakout. It's having a normal run.
On 11/30/2019 at 11:31 AM, fmpro said:A little better than a normal run IMO
* Screens increases over the weekend
* Great attendence pr screen
* Big Sat jump for a adult movie only 9,0 rating
* Sunday Presales looking good
All the chinese new openers are not even close to this
100%+ increase for KO to 40m. That's huge compared to the normal 30%. Lets see what it does tomorrow, typical drop is 28-30%
On 11/26/2019 at 10:18 AM, fmpro said:With 6 new releases, 9,0 rating, huge monday drop and a tuesday 10-15% drop i could see sub 100 mill$ atp. Weekdays are just too low.
1,8-1,9 OW multiplier
On 11/26/2019 at 2:36 PM, POTUS 2020 said:Friday will suck but expect a 130% bump again on Sat as it gets shows back.
It should clear 2x with better than 15% drop today.
On 11/26/2019 at 2:59 PM, Jedi Jat said:If Friday suck, 130% Sat bump don't mean much.
Say Friday is even equal to Tuesday, 130% bump will mean only 46mn Saturday. Need 200% bump on Saturday atleast if Friday grow well, if Friday is just 20mn, then even bigger increase needed.
On 11/26/2019 at 3:11 PM, PKMLover said:Can it finish with $90M ?
$53M x 1.69 = $90M
On 11/28/2019 at 7:44 AM, PKMLover said:Don't tell me it can not even pull 1.7x legs to finish at $90M after a $53M OW !!!!
On 11/28/2019 at 1:23 PM, PKMLover said:Can it pass $90M ??
Again we had premature estimation and a doom and gloom midweek.
F2 90m sat down 46% WoW. thats a great hold these days even for a toon
Worst case 725-750m, around 2x OW, $103-107m
Best case. It holds well next weekend(sat) -50-60%. and bounces back to -45% then legs to the holidays where we saw coco and AQM get a bump the last 2 years. A movie that holds 45-50% for several weeks will double its opening week(447m). That brings F2 close to 900m/$128m or 2.4x opening weekend(373m)
-
5
-
4
-
-
-
32 minutes ago, Mau said:
Any chance for frozen 2 to get an extension? And how much could that extension add?
Its possible, generally an extension doesn't add much, a few percent perhaps. But if it does hold -50% tomorrow and well against next weeks releases it could leg out into the holidays and pick up enough to get over $105m
-
1
-
-
1 hour ago, fmpro said:
Still under 2 multiplier though... Still feel that it could come in under 100 mill
FFHS to $200m was looking shaky. It legged out.
i bet you a one yuan it gets over $100m.
Friday 28.7m.
Sat PS are en route to triple. Maybe 85m tomorrow down less than 50% WoW. great hold.
If so 703m/$100m locked. 2x OW not dead yet, just mostly dead
-
6
-
-
5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:
looks like grossing 23m today and probably make 60m tomorrow and 40m on sunday? But good news is it will be no:1 on saturday.
25.5m and counting at 8pm. Very good friday bump with so much show loss.
Shows increasing from 14% today to 24% sat and 26% sun as the new releases fade.
75m sat
60m sun. 20% drop like last week or better with increased shows
610m total on Sun.
645m on thur. 195m week.
It should get to 703m/ $100m even with a 75% drop next week.
-
8
-
-
10 hours ago, Feanor said:
I keep readinh on here how the video release cut Frozen´s legs in Japan
Out of curiosity, how much more could it have grossed if Disney had pushed back Frozen´s home video release in Japan?
Some thought it made no difference. Myself and others thought it did cut the legs.
the 12th weekend nearly matched the first after up and down fluctuations from 2-10%. then the DVD announcement happened and we saw a 22% drop followed by 33%. No way it holds flat then those drops. If demand burn started to kick in at weekend 13 and we would have seen steady 10% drops for a few weeks, I thought $300m was in the bag. Look at SA, the weekends continued to hold tight for many more weeks. If it ran out like SA did for months on end I thought $400m was a possibility.
@edroger3, I already know your reply.
-
5
-
-
9 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:
depends on where the friday ends up at. I am thinking 50-60% increase can happen. But its losing showcount big time. How much we will know by end of day. it needs 150m 2nd weekend to keep 700m in play. Looks tough but you never know. last weekend it did pull a rabbit out the hat on saturday. its number 3 on PS for friday but number 1 on saturday and so that is something for sure.
One thing about this weekdays is it had very tiny PS to final multi. normally weekdays used to do better than weekends sometime ago.
It could get close to 150m. shows at 14% for tomorrow but back up to 24% on Sat. Expect a 200% bump.
Next weekend has bigger competition including J2. 703m/$100m could be missed unless it finds some Dec legs.
Shocked it couldn't do 2x Ow, its not an SH movie
HLWD not catching a decent run since EG
-
3
-
-
4 hours ago, RJ 95 said:
I think this weekend also will be Frozen 2 last weekend to stay on top of Frozen 1 weekend. It's weekdays gap also will only get bigger each week with Frozen 1 basically won't drop until after golden week. Winter school holidays should help Frozen 2 in late legs.
F1 weekdays did drop after 2nd week even though the weekends held flat.
-
3
-
-
4 hours ago, fmpro said:
With 6 new releases, 9,0 rating, huge monday drop and a tuesday 10-15% drop i could see sub 100 mill$ atp. Weekdays are just too low.
1,8-1,9 OW multiplier
Friday will suck but expect a 130% bump again on Sat as it gets shows back.
It should clear 2x with better than 15% drop today.
-
1 hour ago, edroger3 said:
F1 REAL F2 EST/REAL ADM (K) USD (K) ADM (K) USD (K) FRI 244 $ 2.170 232 $ 2.900 SAT 290 $ 3.619 615 $ 7.688 SUN 319 $ 3.941 642 $ 8.025 MON 99 $ 1.243 150 $ 1.875 TUE 107 $ 1.348 WED 214 $ 2.694 THR 133 $ 1.675 FRI 339 $ 4.312 SAT 335 $ 4.242 SUN 359 $ 4.288 added a few columns. anyone can edit
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Zdn-5nZ0ir-Vtt_MT2E_Ue4vVlEHUhdlUmLhL1GMK0k/edit?usp=sharing
I assume Tuesday has a typical demand burn of a few percent. whereas F1 went up on tues and went up considerably more tues to thurs.
Lets see how f2 does tomorrow
F1 F2 Adm K USD K $ +/- % Adm K USD K $ +/- % F2 vs F1 $ Fri 244 2.170 232 2.900 33.64% Sat 290 3.619 66.77% 615 7.688 165.10% 112.07% Sun 319 3.941 8.90% 642 8.025 4.38% 101.25% Mon 99 1.243 -68.46% 150 1.875 -76.64% 51.52% Tue 107 1.348 8.45% Wed 214 2.694 99.85% Thu 133 1.675 -37.82% Fri 339 4.312 157.43% Sat 335 4.242 -1.62% Sun 359 4.288 1.08% -
1
-
-
48 minutes ago, KP1025 said:
Those were in the summer though with kids off from school. I think 80% drop is mostly in-line with a kid-skewing film on a regular school day.
yes 75-82% monday drop for toons
anyone notice what PS were last night?
5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:This has very less PS. I would think walkin's after 6PM could double it at the current level. But previously you are right 4-430PM used to be it. Not sure for toons. @POTUS 2020 would know for sure.
midpoint has been a moving target lately
China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30
in China At The Box Office
Posted · Edited by POTUS 2020
From Wed to Friday the show drop will be 75%+ but likely to be 85%+ WoW as it is losing shows daily with its weak PTA. Today's BO drop looking to be -20%. There is a Thursday release with 6m PS. Could see 40%+ drop for J2 DoD. I think 2nd weekend will be down 85-90% WoW. It has a shot to come in as low as 1.5x OW
SW9 PS have begun!!
Just 280 shows listed with Y4000 PS. Give it a few days
Its up against Ip Man 4 which already has 2.42m PS with 35k shows
Ip 3 made 700m/$110m+ in 2016