POTUS 2020
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Posts posted by POTUS 2020
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1 hour ago, Jedi Jat said:
Now that I am seeing cinemas being close and stuff, just how shitty India is.
In 2015 Swine Flu had 34k infected case & 2k deaths yet no one bothered to close anything. In fact 2015 first quarter did good business.
22 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:Which make me wonder if China is overreacting or they just know something horrifying that they choose to cover up.
Totalitarian countries can do a shut down more easily. Not an over reaction. They realize how bad and fast it is.
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Another daily increase. I think theater wont open until 30 days after that number peaks. I wonder when factories reopen(with masks). With mainstream sources believing its already 10 times worse than reported due to lack of test kits and many with just colds so far not going to the hospital, it could be a few weeks to peak. I now think CBO, at a minimum, wont be back to normal until April. Theaters may open sooner but many will stay away. And it could be much longer.
Corona Total Inf Count Daily Count Daily % Inc 2 day % Inc Deaths % of Inf 3 days ago Healed T 270 W 420 150 55.6% T 570 150 35.7% 111.1% F 800 230 40.4% 90.5% S 1300 500 62.5% 128.1% 41 9.8% S 2019 719 55.3% 152.4% 56 9.8% M 2794 775 38.4% 114.9% 80 10.0% 47 T 4474 1680 60.1% 121.6% 107 8.2% 63 -
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2 hours ago, MrGlass2 said:
Maybe shut down this thread, quarantine the stupidity until Chinese box office comes back (hopefully soon, for more important life-and-death reasons).
Lock yourself up if you want to quarantine the stupidity.
On topic
They extended CNY holiday by 3 days, thru Sunday, so people can stay home.
At a minimum travel/factory shut down for another week.
There will be little to no BO in Feb at this rate. A lot of releases to be sandwiched or pushed forward into March or beyond
We''ll see a record month when it gets going again
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3 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:
Moderation:- I know this is an unusual and slow time at the Chinese box office but please refrain from off topic post about climate change and Coronavirus. You can talk about Coronavirus here but only if it pertains to the box office.
We have thread on climate change at https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/27994-climate-change-global-warming-general-thread/
And a thread on Coronavirus at https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/28761-coronavirus-2019-2020-wuhan-outbreak/
Please take all off topic chats to the relevant thread.
well when someone asks about BO someone else says its not important to discuss because there is a virus
so shut the whole website down
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31 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:
I also check all the boxes.
Global Warming is real and you are fool to not believe it.
There is no reason to change everything into propoganda.
Here we go with the name calling.
In the 14th century they used heathen, heretic, pagan etc
A friend said I was foolish. He has 2 houses and an SUV. Both houses are heated at all times to prevent pipes from freezing even when he drives to Florida for a month
He can have a 4 cylinder car, one small house and winterize the pipes when he is gone.
He is single and burns 3000 gallons of fuel per year, I, a family of 3, burn less than 500 or 166.6 gallons per person per year. But I am the heathen the heretic and the fool. whatever
All they want to do is tax it, as they already have in many countries. When oil tripled in 2007-08, production went up. They know if they tax it just right, production will hold up, that's why Clinton Bush Obama and Clinton all accept money from oil companies while speaking against them. Hillary was all about CC but accepted 25m dollars, not yuan, from Saudi Arabia when she was running. Why would the Saudis and oil companies give her money if she would reduce consumption. US oil production doubled under Obama. Why would he allow fracking and increase global oil supply by 5% if he was a big CC president
Look at that chart. 5m barrel per day to 10m. Do you see the joke. you're being played.
https://www.macrotrends.net/2562/us-crude-oil-production-historical-chart
You are just begging them to tax you more
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18 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:
Solar Panel: check
Vegan: check
Local Grown food: check
Walk or ride bike on less than 1 mile: check
Don't Fly private jet: check
Global Warming is real. Climate change is real. Ozone depletion is real.
Climate always changes, Why did they officially change it from "global warming" to "climate change". To tell the truth but still fool people. The ozone was an 80s scare, another "going to hell!" scheme. Green Peace and religious institutions are brothers from another mother. Scare people, collect money.
Good that you are living it. Most that preach don't
One funny thing is that most that I know are for CC are also for open borders, where tens of millions
should move from third world tropical economies to northern first world countries thereby increasing fuel consumption from 50 gallons per year to 500 gallons per year. Hysterically ironic
youre in India right. y'all need to cut down on the smog. Stop burning garbage and use better exhaust systems. I missed the blue sky when i was there
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53 minutes ago, Litio said:
The Earth is flat and vaccines cause autism too
I have seen land masses that should be well beyond the curve, I wonder
Every year they add a vaccine, every year the rate of autism goes up. was 1 in 5000 decades ago, now 1 in 39. Again I wonder
Catholic church, after losing attendance to the doom and gloom of the black plague started preaching you would go to hell if you didn't go to church. I bet you don't believe that one anymore, most people did in the 14th century. Do you fear hell? I don't. and I don't fear global warming. Most people i know that do and are religious about it, don't own 1 f-ing solar panel or a f-ing electric car. So apparently they aren't taking it seriously like a 14th century church goer.
Do you or your parents have solar panels and an electric car. Are you vegan and only eat locally grown food? Cant transport pomegranates 5000 miles. Do you walk or ride a bike on trips less than 5 miles? Talk to me when you do, because Leo flies in private jets to pick up climate awards and I don't want to hear what he has to say unless its a good film.
The biggest concern is the one in Nepal, if it spreads it will make it to India, That'll be biblical
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20 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:
When will the Chinese box-office fully recover? Will it recover by the time Mulan releases?
No.
It takes up to 14 days to show signs.
We wont see a peak until 14 days after the shut downs. People were going to movies and restaurants less than a week ago. And then it will take 2 weeks to taper off. This is a minimum. They may allow travel but not theaters right away. Then many will stay away at first and there will be a back log of movies competing for screens.
SARS daily infections shows the increases and the tapering. It had 3 big waves but I don't believe they shut down cities like this time
Corona virus count. I heard this goes well with Lyme disease.
T 270
W 420 +55%
T 570 +36% 2day +111%
F 800 +40% 2 day +90%
S 1300 +62% 2 day +128% Deaths
S 2019 +55% 2 day +152% 56
M 2794 +39% 2 day +114% 80 deaths are running at 10% of 3 day prior infected #
Smaller percentage today but still a higher number. 775 increase vs 719 yesterday. We need this number to steadily drop for 14 days before they can think about loosening restrictions even then another wave could hit
12 hours ago, a2k said:Read that a lot of pathogens habit glaciers and ice caps in a frozen harmless state. As the ice melt due to climate change those pathogens are free to inhabit the non-frozen world.
Global warming is a cash grab.
They have pulled down signs put up 20 years ago stating "This glacier will be gone by 2020". Glacier is still there. They said Arctic ice would be gone, still there.
Al Gore and Obama both bought waterfront homes . The ice isn't melting and the see isn't rising.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/08/28/sea-level-rise-dooms-obamas-new-martha-vineyard-mansion/
There was a "Greta" in 1992 spewing the same garbage. None of it has come true.
The world will end in 12 years? They sound worse than Revelations now. The new religion.
a solar minimum happens every 400 years. Remember the pilgrims having a rough time due to harsh winters? that was 1620, 400 years ago. It'll get cold any year now and they'll keep that "global warming" tax on fuel when it happens. Good luck paying your heating bill.
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23 minutes ago, Movies4Life said:
Are we facing human extinction?
No. It may kill less than 10% of those infected.
750m max. People
Not yuan not dollars
The problem is an unknown multiple of people can have but not know it yet because it takes 10 days to show and some people are asymptomatic but can spread it. Others may just have a mild cold and not bother being tested and can spread it. The other problem is that is spreading far easier than SARS or Ebola or Swine Flu.
No pigs chickens goats bats etc allowed in domestic cities. China has to stop shipping live animals into cities.
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CV infected
T 270
W 420 +55%
T 570 +36% 2day +111%
F 800 +40% 2 day +90%
S 1300 +62% 2 day +128%
S 2019 +55% 2 day +152%
Getting worse.
1 hour ago, BoxOfficeZ said:Of course shutting down cities might be China overcompensating after SARS but it also sends a clear message that they take this shit seriously and there's no way its only 2000 cases. They just announced a lockdown on a city in Guangdong 800km away from Wuhan! If things get out of hand there the electronics manufacturers worldwide who depend on workers there for parts and components will get nailed in markets and here comes recession.
Some estimate it is much higher when they do the math on how busy the hospitals are.
Ive heard 10k and 100k.
I heard two doctors got it through their eyes.
Chinese members, wear goggles as well as masks if going out for food.
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4 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:
Bigger jump on Saturday than the trend of 2x day before previous day.
Yup. Lets look at percentages
T 270
W 420 +55%
T 570 +36% 2day +111%
F 800 +40% 2 day +90%
S 1300 +62% 2 day +128%
The problem will be as it grows they may not be able to test it fast enough.
If it quadruples in 3 to 4 days and spreads to more countries, buy groceries, 2 months supply.
It hit Nepal, too close India and a massive population less able to deal with it than China.
Real time map
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
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8 hours ago, A Marvel Fanboy said:
donot trust the reported cases.
A whole province (50m+ people) would not be locked down if there were only a few hundred cases.
90%+ cases are not hospitaled because there are not enough medical resource.
Yes. Its probably worse than reported.
But we can only track whats reported.
A rumor has it at 7000.
4 hours ago, A Marvel Fanboy said:this time, it is much worse than SARS.
already out of control
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v1
Its spreading far faster than sars. That was 8000 reported infected over 6 months.
It has more than doubled in the last 2 day again, 1300. I see more shut downs coming including all travel out of china.
CBO down for at least a month as this rate will take a few weeks to slow at a minimum
Reported cases
T 270
W 420
Th 570
F 800
S 1300
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13 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:
That is good. I hope WHO can confirm things are under control. It will take weeks(even months) before we know for sure. Plus hoping for vaccination to be available so that we dont have to worry about getting infected. World is highly connected and so there is someone directly/indirectly in contact with affected folks. I live in bay area which has a huge chinese population who will travel back post CNY. I am sure all airports globally will have checks before letting people fly.
That is why despite being movie forum concern should be not on BO but containment of this epidemic.
Well, the BO will be zero for a while and since this your second concern post, let's address it.
As you all know I like to track and project BO even though I don't even watch most of these movies.
I have been tracking the Mexican beer virus to replace CBO since I too don't like a vacuum and don't watch porn to keep me occupied.
Reported cases
T 270
W 420
Th 570
F 800
So its about doubling every 2 days. It either slows and stops like sars or CBO or
30 days 32m people, not yuan, not dollars for those that always ask . (like 1918 flu) stay indoors
40 days 1b (like black plague, 14th century) go to a remote island
48 days everyone (Revelation, predicted in 50ad) too late
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5 hours ago, Arendelle Legion said:
It’ll probably be one of the worst years of the past dozen relative to the global market potential, not just vs 2019. Might have a better quality of films, who knows. Might be more interesting to follow from a BO perspective, who knows. But from a simple perspective of how much money people spend on tickets this year... things just went from bad to worse.
Nature and human nature don't like a vacuum. After July censorship of big releases we saw NZ triple the toon record and the Oct holiday doubled its record. The moviegoers of next week planning to spend over $1b will go go later in time. I bet we see monthly records set in March and April.
corona concern time
Here's a social media braggart that needed to eat in a michelin restaurant. With wealthy idiots like this, it'll spread a bit. Stay indoors, stream....
‘She’s a TIMEBOMB’ Chinese woman hides Coronavirus to enter France - and brags online
A CHINESE woman who knew she was infected with the deadly coronavirus has disguised her symptoms by deliberately taking antipyretics and successfully boarded a plane to France. She then bragged about her actions online in photographs with friends she met on arrival, according to Chinese media sources.
She posted: "Finally, I can have a good meal, it feels like I have been starving for two days. In a city of global delicacies, of course we have to eat food with Michelin Stars.
Cheers!
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3 hours ago, Movies4Life said:
What does this mean for movies like Sonic The Hedgehog, Mulan and Black Widow?
There will be a lot of shuffling if this isn't resolved quickly. Interesting to track
1 hour ago, druv10 said:I wouldn't worry about movies. Main concern should be health of Chinese population.
Its a movie/BO thread. Nothing wrong with discussing current and future releases due to conditions.
150,000 people die everyday from this, that or the other thing, that doesn't stop us from posting frivolous concerns or expectations about BO.
Carry on...
with a mask
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CNY Presales:
DC3 - 227m 56% of total - (124k shows 30% of all shows)
Legend of Deification- 45m - (58k shows)
Lost in Russia- 38m - (54k shows)
The Rescue- 35M - (55k shows)
Leap - 24m - (49k shows)
Vanguard - 17m - (39k shows)
Wild Continent - 15m - (31k shows)
Total PS 401m - 410k shows listed so far. will probably head to 550k+
Perhaps an increase to 500m tomorrow and 750m Sat 3am just beating last year. We will have to see how corona plays out. If its quelled we may see bumps in latter days of CNY
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3 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:
Is DC3 number fake? Once @Olive said local pre-sales are fake/boosted.
I am saying because Day 2 PS are shit.
The other movies have a similar ratio of PS on day 2. -80-85%.
Last year day 2 was closer to -75%.
Shorter PS window or virus could be affecting beyond OD.
An alien invasion would not keep OD rushers away!
A 40- 50% bump on friday could still get PS in the 700s matching last year uless this slow down continues
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3 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:
Yeah at some point its bound to happen with inflation but point is at some point number of screens adding up isn't really pushing gross as much.
In India biggest weekend for a Bollywood film in 2002 was 4mn admits on 500 screens or 6k shows. Today it's 9mn approx on 4500 screens or 70k shows.
Shows increased to 11.5 times but admits are just about 2.25 times.
A more recent comp would be with 2013 record was with the film having 10mn admits on 3300 screens 50k shows. So weekend admits are in fact stagnant in span of 40% extra shows.
I agree that total grosses are topping out regardless of screen additions as explained in my china passing domestic thread. But OWs have increased.
TF4 had a high PTA OW and made $100m(24k screens). It went on to 3.2x OW to $320m in 2014.
FF8 made $200m OW with a similar ATP with double the screens(50k) and shows. But then did just 2x OW.
OW up, OWm down.
EG made $218m its first 3 days. It would have been $275m if it was a Fri OD. It was at a higher ATP, but that might have reduced admissions.
If A2 is destined to do $700m(based on EG, WW2 and love of Jimbo films) , then with 80k+ screens, 60% more than FF8, and with a higher ATP, then $350m OW is doable.
I believe they will continue to price hike hyped movies after it worked with EG.
Anyone know what they are charging for DC3?
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53 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:
More shows and more screens doesn't mean more admits especially because most shows will be added pre noon and evening times for big films as they already have bulk of prime shows. Also occupancies are around 30-50% with 200k plus shows, so its not like they are overflowing. Add 15% more screens and 15% shows, they might not even add 5% more audiences.
Fate of the furious did 13mn admits on Saturday with 179k shows, doesn't mean it can do 22mn on 300k shows which 15% more screens & 15% more screens on Endgame will mean. IMO A2 will be lucky to hit 13mn on 300k shows, if it get those.
Perhap we make a wager when/if the day comes, if I'm still alive.😂 could be another decade or two and a $700m OW
Titanic (14 year old rerelease) and A1 were huge. We could see serious Cameron hype. If its good we should see something anomolous.
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31 minutes ago, A Marvel Fanboy said:
I am not sure whether this is the right move either. so bold, unprecedentsl a move.
CNY eve is indeed more of a family/home celebration day/eve.
These movies are just too scaried of DC3. They are probably behaving out of mind due to panic.
They should know better. There is potentially ¥9b/$1.3+ to be had in 12 days and beyond if its good and leggy.
We have see 3rd to 5th place films on OD go on to lead by day 3 or 4 and win the holiday. DC3s dailies could crash 20% like MH2 while another increases by 20% like ORS. Even if DC3 held well and did 4b, that leaves 4-5b up for grabs.
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14 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:
EG had ¥50 ATP. Not gonna happen. Besides ER has dumped by 12%.
If it has the hype that some think, ¥50ATP could happen for OW. Why not?
ER has just strengthened by 13% or at about the same level when EG came out
14 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:Aquaman 3.1x.
Ready Player One 3.56x.
AQM was a great run, had holiday help and wasn't an anticipated sequel.
RPO big but not huge. But nice memory on over 3x
14 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:Endgame 5 days + Midnights 42.8mn admits & ¥2.24Bn gross. Taking best 3 days will be 33mn admits & ¥1.7Bn admits.
Monster Hunt 2 3 days were 30.5mn admits but ¥1.2B gross only.
$350mn will need ¥2.45Bn or 60mn admits. Impossible I must say as with 220k plus shows daily Wandering Earth & Crazy Alien had just 38mn admits over holiday FSS.
Best 3 days would be larger if EG was a Friday open, add 10%, 36m adm. EG was 20m longer than A1. If A2 is same as A1, more shows, add 15% more, 42m adm.
15% more screens take it to 48m adm.
WE & CA opened when there was 60k screens and a low ATP. I assume 80k screens and high ATP when A2 opens.
A1 was 4 quad. EG wasnt. All demos on full throttle could fill the the addition shows at a high ATP and PTA.
48m adm at ¥50 = ¥2.4b =$351m is possible.
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1 hour ago, danhtruong5 said:
What is the best legs in China so far?
Small openers like Zoo and Dangal were 15x+ OW
WW2 was a big anticipated opener and did over 6x.
TF4 was able to do 3x but there were a lot less screens.
I cant think of a big HLWD film doing over 3 in the last 3 years
China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30
in China At The Box Office
Posted · Edited by POTUS 2020
The problem is that there are still local flights out of wuhan and international flights departing from other cities. The masses are staying home(no work or play) now but a few percent(thats all you need to spread) are roaming around the country and world.
80% of normal annual flu deaths are over 65 years old, the flu often causing pneumonia, then death. Typically the children count is less than 200 and as low as 10. 2018 was high
These specialty flues kill a much higher percentage of younger people, that's what makes it scary. The 1918 flu wreaked havoc on young healthy WW1 troops and children
Seniors die of all sorts of thing that wont kill a teenager, the flu is just one of them. We gotta die of something sooner or later when we get old.
In Sri Lank and Nepal, its getting close. The border is mostly open to Nepal. If it spreads there, it'll likely head down to India, We'll know in a few days if that "1" spread it