POTUS 2020
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Posts posted by POTUS 2020
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3 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:
3 of the CNY releases moving up by 1 day.
Probably very confident of their quality, but then by releasing 1 day earlier, they may potentially lose showtimes to the “Newer” releases on CNY day itself.
Not sure whether this is the right move for them.
The day before is the worst BO day of the year. I thought it was more of a family/home celebration day/eve. Like xmas eve is a slower day in domestic.
Bad move like you said. Plenty of money to be made over 12 days
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On 2/15/2018 at 5:02 PM, Stewart said:
Final presales:
Monster Hunt 2 - 294.1M
Detective Chinatown 2 - 174.2M
Monkey King 3 - 85.1M
Operation Red Sea - 56.7M
Boonie Bears 4 - 42.1M
Totals: 678.4M Presales and ~
355,000390,000 showings. This makes the day, in just presales remember the following:- 2nd best single day ever (behind 806m, in front 645m and 603m)
- Most showing in a single day (needs checking fully, but has beaten every day I've checked by 30,000)
- MH2 has the 4th best opening day for a single film, just in presales
- MH2 has the 13th best single day for a single film, again just in presales
A presale multiplier of just 1.47x gets February 16th to 1B single day gross, first time ever!
On 2/4/2019 at 5:16 PM, Stewart said:Final Presales:
Crazy Alien - 197.6M - (98,856 shows)
Pegasus - 143.1M - (101,979 shows)
The New King of Comedy - 138.1M - (93,278 shows)
The Wandering Earth - 82.4M - (53,828 shows)
Boonie Bears - 42.8M - (19,986 shows)
Peppa Pig - 38.4M - (28,929 shows)
Integrity - 35.9M - (40,308 shows)
The Knight of Shadows - 35.7M - (37,618 shows)
Totals: 718.7M Presales and ~
475,000510,000 showings. Best ever presales and showings for a single day, beating last years. The additional 120k showings is rather mindboggling.Should handily beat last year, solid chance at ¥1.5B single day, easily beating the 1.277B last year. Also last year increased from 355k showings in presales to 392k showings in actuals. Possible that total showings at end of day will be over 500k.
ODPS OD Shows Screens 12Day
2018 678m 1277m 390,000 50,700 7773m
2019 718m 1458m 510,000 60,000 7699m
2020 ??? ??? 580,000? 70,000 ???
A majority of the annual BO gains from 2015 to 16 to 17 to 18 was in CNY. 2019 saw CNY flat YoY and the year was heading down YoY when the Oct Holiday blew up and got the year up 5% in yuan, up 1% in dollars. There are nearly 40% more screens than 2 years ago, if the movies are good we could see a bump of 20-40%, which may be needed if 2020 is going to be up. If CNY is near flat again, it could be a sign that CBO has hit its soft ceiling.
2019 CNY OD was up 15% with 19% more screens, 30% more shows, but the 12 day total(7 holidays and 5 school-out days) was flat. Will addition screens/shows just boost OD again? or the totals as well. Will be interesting to watch and could determine the year or even decade's trend.
CNY OD PS is nearing 200m with DC3 at 59% of total PS- at 115m, 30% of 295k shows listed with 5.5 days to go.
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8 hours ago, PKMLover said:
When will F2 finish its run?
Extension ends on tues. Last minute movie goers have been showing up. Weekdays increased daily this week and Sat was 3m up 50% WoW. It will reach 863m/$123m
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CNY OD PS
DC3 71m PS. 60% of PS with 29% shows.
The rest have 47m PS with # 2 and 3 at 12m PS each. Win/leap with 7m.
The delay was useless. Commies just dont understand free markets. DC3 will crush OD, WoM will takeover on day 2.
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2 hours ago, PKMLover said:
Frozen 2 just crossed $120M mark this Sunday in China, it finally happened....
And heading to $122m by the time CNY starts
SW9 crossed $20m and will clear $21m
Ip4 and SwoS both heading to 1.1b/$157m+
Adoring to 650m+ as Maoyan forecasted
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Annual update
Yuan BO up 5.4%. The year was saved by NZ and the Oct holiday. July censorship may have bolstered those films. BO in $s up just .9%
Admissions per screen down 35% , 38.6k to 25.2k from 2015 to 2019 and nearly 10k admissions below the 15 year average. They need to stop building, we may see contraction at some point.
Screens % Inc Adm(m) Adm Inc Adm p/sc BO Ym % Inc BO Yp/sc BO $m % Inc Tix Ave 2003 920 125 2004 1,514 64.6% 187 49.6% 2005 4,400 157 35,682 2,046 35.1% 465,000 250 33.7% $1.59 2006 4,700 6.8% 176 12.1% 37,447 2,620 28.1% 557,447 342 36.8% $1.94 2007 5,600 19.1% 195 10.8% 34,821 3,327 27.0% 594,107 438 28.1% $2.25 2008 5,700 1.8% 209 7.2% 36,667 4,342 30.5% 761,754 586 33.8% $2.80 2009 6,300 10.5% 263 25.8% 41,746 6,206 42.9% 985,079 873 49.0% $3.32 2010 7,800 23.8% 290 10.3% 37,179 10,172 63.9% 1,304,103 1,452 66.3% $5.01 2011 9,200 17.9% 370 27.6% 40,217 13,115 28.9% 1,425,543 1,929 32.9% $5.21 2012 14,000 52.2% 462 24.9% 33,000 17,073 30.2% 1,219,500 2,586 34.1% $5.60 2013 18,100 29.3% 612 32.5% 33,812 21,769 27.5% 1,202,707 3,400 31.5% $5.56 2014 23,600 30.4% 830 35.6% 35,169 29,639 36.2% 1,255,890 4,665 37.2% $5.62 2015 31,500 33.5% 1215 46.4% 38,571 44,000 48.5% 1,396,825 7,020 50.5% $5.78 2016 41,179 30.7% 1372 12.9% 33,318 45,710 3.9% 1,110,032 6,970 -0.7% $5.08 2017 50,776 23.3% 1620 18.1% 31,905 55,910 22.3% 1,101,111 8,200 17.6% $5.06 2018 60,079 18.3% 1765 9.0% 29,378 60,980 9.1% 1,014,997 9,239 12.7% $5.23 2019 69,800 16.2% 1765 0.0% 25,287 64,300 5.4% 921,203 9,319 0.9% $5.28 05 to 19 increase 1486% 22% 1024% 20% 34,947 3043% 29% 1,021,020 3628% 36% 364% 05 to 19 Average^ 05 to 19 Average^ Average^ 05 to 19 Average^ Average^ 05 to 19 Average^ 05 to 19 1,225,634 10 to 19^
From 4.5 years ago. It does look like its flattening under $10b. Perhaps a down 5% year is due like Domestic just had and slowly chopping higher from thereOn 5/20/2015 at 5:55 AM, POTUS 2020 said:I see a flattening of the curve soon. Its easy to have 20-40% gains when it starts with a small number and there is so much room to expand, but when it gets to the level that it is now it approaches a saturation point that quells it. Its going to break through 5.5b this year, with so many blockbusters and possibly a 40% increase it could be flat next year. If not I believe it will be under 10B when it does. Then like DOM it will have its up years and down with overall small growth.
Love quoting myself. Bigly(big league) call
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9 hours ago, Somoset said:
I'm seeing some forecast saying CNY will be up 35% from last year? is this super unrealistic?
Since last year was flat and screens up 40% since 2 years ago, 35% boost is possible if at least three movie are well received.
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No movies listed for CNY PS on Maoyan. Maybe its blacked out for foreign IPs? Anyone know if PS have begun?
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F2 beating SW9 on the dailies in both Japan and China now
Funny to see Japan thread more active than China again. Only during Frozen 1 and 2. I guess we'll have to wait a few years for high activity again
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On 6/19/2019 at 11:33 PM, keysersoze123 said:
This will happen. But needs more local breakouts. Plus in few years china will have twice the cinema screens that US has and so could potentially have 2 big blockbusters every week. I would like movies to have longer run( at least 2 months) while retaining showtimes based on demand. At some point China could increase quota as well.
Not sure about next year but should happen by 2022. Nope
Waited a few months to respond to you for year end data. A few things
- BO to GDP has normalized.
- BO now needs GDP to grow and its slowing.
- 2018 was up 4% w/o fees.
- 2019 was up 5% in yuan but just 1% in dollars. A long way to get to $11.5B at this pace
- Build all the screens they can but disposable income is limited and its far more limited in third and fourth tier cities where new screens are going up. Chart below proves this as they are just holiday goers.
- Blockbusters are few and far between at times, but if many come along, all make less. When there are none the BO is dead for months then WW2 or NZ explode to new levels.
Interesting observation of growth from 2015 to 18 and 19. Screens have more than doubled but BO is up just 39% in 4 years including 6% fees added in(. All of that growth is in just 13 movies. 4 films during 11 days of CNY, 3 films during 3 days of DBF, 3 films during 8 days of Autumn Fest and the biggest local summer block buster; The top two SH's consume any HLWD growth. The new screens are just bringing in more people for the holidays or the occasional break out. The masses aren't showing up in larger numbers for the other 45 weeks of the year
Screens Total BO(m) BO p/scr CNY DBF Autumn Fest Top Local non holiday film Top SH #2 SH BO w/o CNY..etc BO p/scr w/o CNY.. 2015 31,500 46,640 1,480,635 2,882 780 1,980 2,576 1,548 711 38,333 1,216,912 2018 60,000 61,000 1,016,667 7,773 1,078 1,760 3,100 2,390 2,012 42,887 714,783 2019 69,800 64,300 921,203 7,699 893 4,459 5,000 4,239 1,404 40,606 581,748 BO per screen down 38%(4th column) 1.48m down to 921k. A lot of the new ones must be losing money(in 4th tier cities) and some of the existing ones are probably struggling due to over saturation in 1st tier.
Outside of the 7 weeks of holidays and a few blockbuster's 1st and 2nd weekends, (last column), BO p/scr is down 52%, 1.216m to 581k
BO is close to flat from 15 to 19 outside of the 13 films(other 45 weekends). 38.3b to 40.6b or slightly down w/o fees.
I'll stick with 2030+. Could be longer if their economy goes flat like Japan has after decades of huge growth .
Another note. there are more middle aged people than youngsters. There will be less 20, 30 and 40-somethings in the years to come
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@Olive please post annual update with screen count. thanks
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8 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:
what if I say Shang Chi will be the first HLW title open on the first day of CNY.
it is opening on CNY in the US, interesting
Last CNY was close to flat from 2018. If this CNY doesn't increase with the extra screens they could play Shang Chi next year as there will be room.
They should start PS for CNY soon. 20 days out
Last years CNY/OD was 1.45b/$215m
On 2/4/2019 at 5:16 PM, Stewart said:Final Presales:
Crazy Alien - 197.6M - (98,856 shows)
Pegasus - 143.1M - (101,979 shows)
The New King of Comedy - 138.1M - (93,278 shows)
The Wandering Earth - 82.4M - (53,828 shows)
Boonie Bears - 42.8M - (19,986 shows)
Peppa Pig - 38.4M - (28,929 shows)
Integrity - 35.9M - (40,308 shows)
The Knight of Shadows - 35.7M - (37,618 shows)
Totals: 718.7M Presales and ~475,000 showings. Best ever presales and showings for a single day, beating last years. The additional 120k showings is rather mindboggling.
Should handily beat last year, solid chance at ¥1.5B single day, easily beating the 1.277B last year. Also last year increased from 355k showings in presales to 392k showings in actuals. Possible that total showings at end of day will be over 500k. - Was over 520k shows
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On 12/31/2019 at 5:16 PM, Madhuvan said:
How is Frozen 2 doing? Any surge during Holidays.
Made 9m on NYD. 829m total. Still on track for 840m/$120m
On 12/31/2019 at 6:22 PM, TigerPaw said:yeah - got killed immediately even by Holdovers. The release has been delayed for too long, no hype at all.
Maoyan predictions updated - December release box office ranking:
IpMan4 - RMB1.12bn
SwoS - RMB1.03bn
Adoring - RMB0.67bn
i think Maoyan underestimated Adoring’s full potential, with a Maoyan score of 9.3 and opening of >160m, I think 1bn is within reach.
Tomorrow (1st Jan) is a public holiday - will see how high IpMan4 and Adoring can fly and see any Maoyan updates their predictions.
31m thursday 317m total. I think 450m more then CNY begins.
Holiday lifts all movies. Even bad ones.
SW9 trying for $20m, setting a high and virtually impossible bar for SWX
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14 hours ago, LPLC said:
Ok ok thank you for your analyse, so Star Wars is dead in China, and can frozen 2 reach $125M ? Is there holidays which could help box office in china ?
$120m. NYE/NYD plus rest of extended run(Jan 20th) will help it get to just there.
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17 hours ago, LPLC said:
Really ? $16M for TROS : ok easy but $17M out of reach ? how ? I don't understand Chinese market
16 hours ago, a2k said:it's on 102m atm, 10m more will give it 112m/$16.
to hit $17/119m it needs 17m more and maybe that's too far? haven't tracked it so can't say much.
What @TigerPaw said plus 3 releases on the Mon the 31st will take 60% of shows. With SwoS and IP4 holding well(high PTA) they will strip the shows from SW9 and others. Daily BO for SW9 will drop below 100k. and not recover as we have recently seen with J2 F2 has had a good PTA and continues to hold a decent % of shows.
SW9 will hit 115m on Sunday 115m/$16.3m and make very little after
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SW9
Bad news: will lose 70% of shows on friday.
Good news: it will clear $16m and beat Solo.
Bad news: $17m out of reach
F2 still on track for $120m
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11 hours ago, PKMLover said:
If it cross $100M on 11-12 Jan weekend, then how much for the final gross?
Looks like $125m to me.
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13 minutes ago, PKMLover said:
+130%
+215%
+435%
+550%
+900%
On 11/28/2019 at 12:42 PM, POTUS 2020 said:It could get close to 150m. shows at 14% for tomorrow but back up to 24% on Sat. Expect a 200% bump.
Next weekend has bigger competition including J2. 703m/$100m could be missed unless it finds some Dec legs.
Shocked it couldn't do 2x Ow, its not an SH movie
HLWD not catching a decent run since EG
Weekend legs were found. 3 years in a row. Coco, AQM and F2
I almost Jatindered
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10 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:
Haha. WOW!
$16m is a good thing. China is still communist, sort of, they like to redistribute income. They take it away from Star wars and give to struggling movies like Resident Evil, Warcraft and Stallone/Schwarzenegger productions😄
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Saturday
Ip4 114m 305m/$43.5m OW
SwoS 68m -10% WoW 535m total
SW8 25.9m 86m/12.3m 5 Day OW. Still thinking $18-20m, $16m possible
F2 8.7m +900% DoD -55% WoW 808m/$115m thru sunday
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China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30
in China At The Box Office
Posted
After seeing what EG did, I think $350m+ OW is possible with more screens. $1B would be tough unless there are a lot of repeat viewings with a 9.8 rating. Most likely, if well received, it falls between EG $628m and WW2 $854m .