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POTUS 2020

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    China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

    in China At The Box Office

    Posted · Edited by POTUS 2020

    47 minutes ago, pepsa said:

    At this point it might as well. The previews on wed have been revised downwards (to 12.8m) and it will still easily be bigger than it's OD at 12m (might go down as well)?

    So 12.8m / 12m / 15m / 20m / 13m (about $9.6m USD) for a 4.5 day weekend with out IP man breaking out. 

    PSm could stay flat or drop as the walkups dwindle, shows dropping from 84k to 50k.  May see a flat Friday, 

     

    At least SW9 has beaten EG in one category...

     

     

    OD PSm, but not by much

    China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

    in China At The Box Office

    Posted · Edited by POTUS 2020

    16 hours ago, pepsa said:

    Well TLJ only made $42m so the drop will be less brutal than from TFA, SW isn't big here and also not well received.

    Also it's not as bad as solo's $16m.

    we'll see.  it has a chance

                                             9d7279172daec93926d5fc0043684813159d2684 mark-hamill.jpg

    9 hours ago, PKMLover said:

    Is F2 still on track for $120M at the end?

    yes, as long as the show count is decent for the holidays

    7 hours ago, Arendelle Legion said:

    Uh, is it just me or is the SW pace today like.... really  brutally miserable?

     

    6 hours ago, TigerPaw said:

    It is true, not sure whether it can hit 3x.

    the Maoyan score is 7.8... Same as Jumanji, disaster..

    Just 2.2x PS.  Oh my.  Crashing dailies are as much fun tracking popping daily BO

    Can the PSm drop tomorrow? and Sat

    $20m dead,  Shall we go for $15m?

     

    • Like 1
    • Haha 1

    China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

    in China At The Box Office

    Posted

    5 hours ago, pepsa said:

    TROS had a very good jump totday in OD presales, will go over 3.2m by midnight With todays boost it should atleast do 6m ps's in total probably 6.3m or so.  A 4 time ps multi should give it close to 25m.

     

    As for tomorrow it's PS will be 5.25m by midnight, and because it are nation wide previews starting at 7pm I guess it will have a decent amount of walk ups so probably 10m day tomorrow.

    You think PS will just double tomorrow like MN's normally do?

    I was thinking 3x like an OD

    4x on thur like you projected.

    If its 2x tomorrow, then I'm thinking 3x on thur

    • Like 1

    China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

    in China At The Box Office

    Posted · Edited by POTUS 2020

    10 hours ago, TigerPaw said:

    The distributor - Bona Films will be a laughing stock if Eight Hundred doesn't debut. Because IpMan4 was poised to win the weekend with over 500m yuan, really a stupid move. 

    Presales for IpMan4 on Friday is already more than 10m yuan, with few days to go.

    Why do you think 500m?  I project final PS to be low 20s.  OD 70m,  OW 250m based on standard metrics

     

    SW9 Wed 7pm preview PS at 4.95m, will finish 5.5-6m with 30k+ shows.  18-22m Wed.  Thur PS, OD, at 2.88m with 46k shows.  Will probably finish with 5m+ PS.  20m+ OD.  5 releases total spread out on the 29th, 30th and 31st. It has 11days to make money

     

    @Olive or anyone else, with no Fri or Sat releases, but Sun, Mon, Tues releases,  Are they turning weekend into workdays and M-W a holiday?

    • Haha 1

    China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

    in China At The Box Office

    Posted

    18 hours ago, a2k said:

    JUM3 is at $38 after $6 weekend and is looking at a decent 1.8-1.85x multi ($25 ow, $45-46 total). With just 7.6 rating that's not usual I believe. Smaller numbers can result in faster loss of theaters so it doesn't always make legs easy.

     

    edit: I was expecting $100 total so am not happy with this result but am relieved it didn't do ~1.6x that a 7.6 rating can bring.

     

    5 hours ago, TigerPaw said:

    Cold weather, presales are not strong but if weather is good, people will still leave their house on the actual day to buy tickets. So the competition comes in when  audience is at the cinema looking at showtimes and deciding which movie to watch.

     

    holdovers not strong? Sheep without shepherd seems to be holding well.

    SwoS bumped Sunday and only down 50% today. Its a runner and will demand more shows this weekend.  Could beat Ip4 with the way PS look. 

    F2 will still get to have its shows on Saturday with a solid PTA over the weekend and no direct competition. Still on course for $120m+

    SW9 could get buried if it doesn't get a good reaction on Wed.  Im thinking under$30m total for now

    J2 will hit 285m on Thur, with 4 new releases and a strong holdover it will have very few shows.  Just 10m more. 295m/$42m  1.7x OW

    Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

    in China At The Box Office

    Posted

    17 hours ago, pepsa said:

     

    Well only 3 days left, doesn't look good tbh. I think it will have huge jumps on monday and tuesday.

    PS arent going to go up without the shows.  I cant believe its just at 17k shows. I assumed 80k+ or just 25% would be the minimum

    9 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

    IP Man pre-sales look weak. Just $4mn at T-5 days. I don't really know how local PS work tho.

    PS are similar to HLWD.  The ramp up is less steep at the end, 60% PS bump on the last day instead of 75% and the PSm is consistently a bit lower usually at 2.5-3x.

    China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

    in China At The Box Office

    Posted

    1 hour ago, edroger3 said:

     

    Does China have Holidays or school-out in next weeks?

     

    49 minutes ago, A Marvel Fanboy said:

    no. New Years Day will be school-out for 1 day.

    School not out for Xmas eve and Day but BO does double. School was out 2 days last year, 31st/1st but saturday was a workday.  See AQM dailies below NYE(mon) and NYD(tues) were 4x+ Wed.  Coco had a similar trend

     

    Fri 33.4 10.2% -61.4% 1481 215.0
    Sat 70.2 110.2% -57.3% 1551 225.2
    Sun 58 -17.4% -53.2% 1609 233.6
    Xeve 36.1 -37.8% -12.8% 1645 238.8
    Xday 35.7 -1.1% -2.5% 1681 244.0
    Wed 19.5 -45.4% -41.1% 1701 246.8
    Thu 17.5 -10.3% -42.2% 1718 249.4
               
    Fri 16.7 -4.6% -50.0% 1735 251.8
    Sat 18.75 12.3% -73.3% 1754 254.5
    Sun 43.4 131.5% -25.2% 1797 260.8
    NYE 53.2 22.6% 47.4% 1850 268.5
    NYD 50.9 -4.3% 42.6% 1901 275.9
    Wed 11.5 -77.4% -41.0% 1913 277.6
    Thu 9.7 -15.7% -44.6% 1922 279.0
    • Like 1

    JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    28 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

    Yeah. Competition is pretty tough this weekend.  But next week we have SW9 debut and Japan is one of its big market so.....

    7 made $95m, 8 made $66m.  Will 9 drop? It will have a $10-14m OW but they can co exist as demos are mostly different

    here is F1 against Conan , Spidey and an adult drama making $13m on the weekend.  not affected much

    1 1 Frozen Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures $7,558,540 -6.1% 744 +144 $10,159 $118,594,135 7
    2 - Thermae Romae II Toho $4,809,545 - 434 - $11,081 $4,809,545 1
    3 - Detective Conan: The Sniper from Another Dimension Toho $4,551,469 - 341 - $13,347 $15,967,656 2
    4 - The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Sony Pictures Releasing $4,105,577 - 763 - $5,380 $5,107,048 1

     

    • Thanks 1

    China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

    in China At The Box Office

    Posted

    7 hours ago, Arendelle Legion said:

    TBF you could equally view it not so much as being outrageously strong on Saturdays as outrageously dead on Mon-Fri, imo.    
     

    Saturday may be near 200% of Mon+Tues+Wed+Thu, WTF is that? I mean it plays Sat heavy in SK and DOM too but the Sat is like 80-120% of Mon-Th

     

    7 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

    I am not looking deep in China from last few days but just looking at 12:00 CST numbers, F2 shall be ¥20mn. Now these Saturday jumps are getting ridiculous. 

     

    Ofcourse, correct me if I am wrong 

    We saw F1 in Japan have steady drops midweek while it held flat on the weekends during week 5 through 10.

    If evening rate doesn't die stall, it will reach 20-21m today -33% WoW.  Most importantly it has the second highest PTA behind Sky Fire.  With SW9 opening on Wed and both Ip$ and SW Sat PS weak, its likely that F2 will hold 75% of its show next week also. $125m+ possible with todays performance

     

    J2 was down 84% WoW on Fri, Will be down -73% today.  About -76% for the weekend. It will lose 90%+ shows next weekend and make very little.  290m/$41m total incoming. 1.69x OW.

    Sequels are not only not automatically rising with the market growth, but are often getting slammed.  Add J2 to the list.  The growth can be explosive if it resonates as F2 has with the base building over 6 years and increasing 150%.

    JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

    in International Box Office

    Posted · Edited by POTUS 2020

    I haven't looked at this much in the last 5 years, but what I gather is that F2 is holding -13% WoW. Not bad considering 6 new releases.  Toho discount may affect it a couple %.  We'll see tomorrow.  Looks like $8m+ weekend.  We need -10% or better next weekend.

    China is adding $70m, it would be nice to see Japan do $180m

     

    2019/12/14 20:10更新 最新デイリー詳細速報（約20分毎更新）
    順位 販売(前回比)　座席(消化率)　先週比　95分率　全日推定　映画作品タイトル名
    *1　182386(+1841)　598972(.904)　*86.8%　35.2%　189680　アナと雪の女王２
    *2　*42681(+1170)　225541(.837)　******　43.9%　*71092　屍人荘の殺人
    *3　*42290(+*854)　215556(.802)　******　40.1%　*63001　ジュマンジ／ネクスト・レベル
    *4　*34078(+**54)　269748(1.00)　******　41.7%　*34106　映画 妖怪学園Ｙ 猫はＨＥＲ…
    *5　*29950(+*377)　143745(.809)　*59.7%　46.3%　*34235　ルパン三世 ＴＨＥ ＦＩＲＳＴ
    *6　*27982(+*235)　*85064(.858)　*85.6%　50.3%　*29892　午前０時、キスしに来てよ
    *7　*18422(+***0)　*26523(1.00)　******　*0.7%　******　アイドリッシュセブン ファン…
    *8　*14916(+***0)　*83286(1.00)　*72.0%　45.7%　*14924　映画 すみっコぐらし とびだ…
    *9　*14206(+***0)　*14944(.976)　******　*0.1%　******　宝塚歌劇 星組東京建物 Ｂｒ…
    10　*13610(+*173)　101775(.831)　******　51.6%　*20923　カツベン！
    • Like 1

    China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

    in China At The Box Office

    Posted · Edited by POTUS 2020

    6 hours ago, danhtruong5 said:

    Saturday presale:

    Frozen 2 is ahead of Jumanji 3 so far and seems to only behind the 3 new releases:jeb!:

    Its going to 5 fold friday again

    4 hours ago, Arendelle Legion said:

     

    F2 was 9th on Friday, let’s see how I t can do on the two days of the week that matter for it 😛 

    Friday was down 50% WoW. Im thinking 16m Sat, 15m Sun

    Sat shows down just 25% WoW at 30k

    16 hours ago, Mau said:

    How much could it leg? 

    If it holds close to 50% next weekend as I expect, it will land at 800m on Sun the 22nd which was the end of the run with 7.5m on Sun.  With ext, and if there is no direct local competition, and with an Xmas and NY's bump it could get to 850m/$121m

    $118-123m is the likely range for those tracking OS and WW

    • Like 4

    Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

    in China At The Box Office

    Posted · Edited by POTUS 2020

    2 hours ago, pepsa said:

    IP4

    Fri:     3.50m                     44.4k shows

     

    SW9   T-4

    Wed:   1.79m (+570k)       12.9k (+3.9k)

    Thu:     835k  (+270k)       14.7k (+5.6k)

    Fri:       1.11m  (+530k)       17.1k (+5.0k)

    Sat:      665k  (+235k)         7.0k (+3.8k)

     

    TLJ OD:

    T-5 2.53M
    T-4 3.09M
    T-3 4.07M
    T-2 5.60M

     

    Tbh SW9 is doing quite decent considering the lack of show times it has.  Still it doesn't have a lot of time left and the weekend is comming so jumps might not be super high.  I have no clue when showtimes will be added, they might be waiting to see how the new releases are doing over the weekend.  @POTUS 2020 what increases do you expect over the next days?

    Also IP4 increases are pretty weak atm.

    I assume it will get at least 100k shows on Wed, Sky Fire got 93k on thur and did 29m.  If they list 20k shows per day we should see n 50% bumps or greater.  but S50% S50% M50% T100% still doesnt get it very high though= 12m.  Could see 75% Mon and and 125%+ Tue or its a dud, or its a weekend movie or not

    • Like 1

    JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

    in International Box Office

    Posted · Edited by POTUS 2020

    On 12/11/2019 at 2:04 AM, danhtruong5 said:

    What does "it is stabilizing" mean for a movie?

    Softer Week over Week drops after a large Opening Weekend

    On 12/11/2019 at 3:13 PM, Jedi Jat said:

    $1.25mn today. Another week on week 15% drop. Cume $58.2mn.

     

    Let's see if it can manage 15% weekend drop for $8mn weekend and $67.5-68mn by Sunday.

     

    6 hours ago, PKMLover said:

    I only hope for original song award. 

    At 7pm local time, Thursday -14% from last week

    So it has a shot to drop 15% this weekend.  I said early on it will be hard to gauge the total until the 3rd to 4th weekend.  -15% shows a sign it could get over $180m.  It will need several 10-15% WoW drops and 1 or 2 near flats to get there.  A couple of 20% drops in the next few weeks will likely mean 150m-ish

     

    Something like this.  F1's sweet spot was 7-8m for 10 weeks.  Lets see if it can hold a while there with repeat viewers.

    WE

    1  15.1m

    2  13.3

    3    9.5

    4    8.1

    5    7.3

    6    7.2 

    7    7

    8    6.3

    9    6

    10  5.1

     

    • Like 4
    • Thanks 1

    Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

    in China At The Box Office

    Posted

               PS       Shows

    IP4

    Fri      2.87m   39k   Dec 20th

    SW9

    Wed  830k     4.4k    Dec 18

    Thu    460k     4.7k

    Fri      450k     7.7k

    Sat     370k       3k 

     

    There are a few SW fan boys in China. 830k PS with just 4.4k shows on a Wed on short notice is impressive.

    Too early to tell where it will land and we may not know until OW but it continues to have a good start.  Hopefully they list 20k shows tomorrow 

     

    • Like 3
    • Thanks 2

    China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

    in China At The Box Office

    Posted · Edited by POTUS 2020

    27 minutes ago, a2k said:

    Jumanji will fall under 10% today.

    Tue was 14.52 and Wed is 12.9+ currently.

    13.1-13.2 will give it 9.1-9.8% drop.

    I'm amazed at how often under performers with a bad rating hold better on tues and wed than highly rated $100m+ movies

     

    Sky fire will take 26% of shows tomorrow with 10m PS

    J2 will lose 20% of its shows

    • Like 6
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