POTUS 2020

yes but pacrim was a disappointment in Dom and therefore easy to beat. TLS wad a bit of a feat for Japan to beat DOM but it was a modest hit not a blockbuster TF$ was big, but underperformed for the franchise. This will however be the first over performing dom blockbuster to get beat.

TF4 FF7 Day Yuan % +/- % BO -OW Total $ Tot Yuan % +/- TF4 vs FF7 Total $ Tot % Cume TF4 Mltplr DayxM +OW $Proj Fri 195 195 32 Sat 223 14.4% 418 69 51 - MN Sun 213 -4.6% 631 103 347 63.1% 398 64 -37.9% Mon 123 -42.1% 9.07 754 124 184 -47.0% 49.5% 582 94 -24.0% 11.03 2,421 390 Tues 112 -8.9% 8.25 866 142 167 -9.2% 48.8% 749 121 -14.9% 12.12 2,416 389 Wed 95 -15.7% 6.97 961 157 137 -18.0% 44.8% 886 143 -9.3% 14.35 2,358 380 Thur 84 -11.0% 6.21 1045 171 114 -16.8% 35.4% 1000 161 -5.8% 16.10 2,228 359 Fri 87 3.4% 6.42 1132 186 142 24.6% 63.0% 1142 184 -0.7% 15.58 2,604 419 Sat 130 48.8% 9.55 1262 207 225 58.5% 73.6% 1367 220 6.6% 10.47 2,748 443 Sun 118 -9.0% 8.69 1379 226 184 -18.2% 56.1% 1551 250 10.6% 11.51 2,509 404 Mon 54 -58.33% 4.02 1433 235 72 -60.9% 33.3% 1623 262 11.4% 24.85 2,181 351 Tue 53 -1.85% 3.95 1486 244 Ptoj 71 -1.9% 33.3% 1694 273 12.1% 25.32 2,181 351 Wed 43 -18.87% 3.20 1529 251 Ptoj 57 -18.9% 33.3% 1751 282 12.6% 31.21 2,181 351 Thu 39 -9.30% 2.91 1568 257 Ptoj 52 -9.3% 33.3% 1803 291 13.1% 34.41 2,181 351 Fri 42 7.69% 3.13 1610 264 Sat 62 47.62% 4.62 1672 274 Sun 58 -6.45% 4.32 1730 284 AvePro 392 Str8 Up TF4 1st Week FF7 2nd Week TF/FF Day TF4 FF7 %Cume Day Yuan % Ch Total $ Tot Yuan % Ch vs TF4 Total $ Tot F/Su 1 195 398 104.3% Fri 195 195 32 142 -27.2% 142 23 S/M 2 223 184 39.4% Sat 223 14.4% 418 69 225 58.5% 0.9% 367 59 S/T 3 213 167 18.8% Sun 213 -4.6% 631 103 184 -18.2% -13.5% 551 89 M/W 4 123 137 17.5% Mon 123 -42.1% 754 124 72 -60.9% -41.5% 623 100 T/Th 5 112 114 15.5% Tue 112 -8.9% 866 142 W/F 6 95 142 18.9% Wed 95 -15.7% 961 157 Th/S 7 84 225 30.8% Thu 84 -11.0% 1045 171 F/Su 8 87 184 37.0% S/M 9 130 72 28.7% Fri to Thu S/T 10 118 71 22.8% P Yuan $$$ +/- Yuan $$$ +/- TF v FF M/W 11 54 57 22.2% P Wk1 1045 171 1000 161 -4.3% T/Th 12 53 52 21.3% P Wk2 524 86 -49.9% 803 130 -19.7% 53.4% Partial Proj Total 1486 1803 21.3% Wk3 256 42 -51.1% Tot $ 244 291 19.3% Wk4 81 13 -68.4% Proj$ 30 319 381 19.3% Wk5 42 7 -48.1% Tot 1947.4 319 1803 291 After running mostly between 45-70% stronger, this large drop, albeit typical for nearly all films, put a damper on the run. Only 33% more than TF4s 2nd Monday. I assume it will run similarly the rest of the midweek. Hopefully it will show a bit more strength on the weekend or 400m is in jeopardy. If so, it still has a wild card with May holiday if it can keep enough showtimes.

Days 12 13 14 are projections

yeah, if you want to watch 25 conans or godzillas.

TLK is now closer to 1B

that was very witty. 7 year rule on that one!

that's 4m higher than what Johnny posted for 3 days 142, 225, 184 =551Y = $89.9m hopefully actual will slant higher

It has a shot. 196m ww weekend? with 360m to go. I know TA2 will knock it down but that was a great hold for OS and China was insane. There will be many TA2 sellouts and therefore shutouts that'll go to see FF7. Its obviously has WOM in many places still. That'll give it legs after next weekends hit. A big release is not the end of the world, Look at TA and IM3's OW and 2W. holdovers all take a hit then have smaller than usual drops a week later. HG just 19% w WOM. Pain and Gain, Oblivion, The Lucky one and The Five Year long Crappy Movie were not WOM blockbusters but had great holds of 25-25% in the midst of a big second weekend and a new release of 29mdark shadows and 50mGatsby in respective years. This year there aren't any other large releases the following week to take more screens or moviegoers. It may get hit up to 60% but look for 20% or better the following week. China 160m+ OS 125M+ DOM 65m Its gonna be close to #3 or blow past it if China does the unexpected 1 N Marvel's The Avengers BV $207,438,708 - 4,349 - $47,698 $207,438,708 $220 1 2 1 Think Like a Man SGem $8,106,166 -54.0% 2,010 -5 $4,033 $73,135,600 $12 3 3 3 The Hunger Games LGF $5,587,661 -48.3% 2,794 -778 $2,000 $380,614,659 $78 7 4 2 The Pirates! Band of Misfits Sony $5,502,482 -50.6% 3,358 - $1,639 $18,665,941 $55 2 5 4 The Lucky One WB $5,368,115 -50.3% 3,005 -170 $1,786 $47,775,060 - 3 6 5 The Five-Year Engagement Uni. $5,029,110 -52.6% 2,941 +5 $1,710 $19,133,015 $30 2 1 1 Marvel's The Avengers BV $103,052,274 -50.3% 4,349 - $23,696 $373,071,647 $220 2 2 N Dark Shadows WB $29,685,274 - 3,755 - $7,906 $29,685,274 $150 1 3 2 Think Like a Man SGem $5,816,108 -28.3% 2,052 +42 $2,834 $81,432,840 $12 4 4 3 The Hunger Games LGF $4,505,362 -19.4% 2,531 -263 $1,780 $387,007,048 $78 8 5 5 The Lucky One WB $4,107,492 -23.5% 2,839 -166 $1,447 $53,788,233 - 4 6 6 The Five-Year Engagement Uni. $3,314,010 -34.1% 2,569 -372 $1,290 $24,623,420 $30 3 1 N Iron Man 3 BV $174,144,585 - 4,253 - $40,946 $174,144,585 $200 1 2 1 Pain and Gain Par. $7,511,315 -62.9% 3,287 +10 $2,285 $33,830,390 $26 2 3 3 42 WB $6,055,327 -43.2% 3,345 -60 $1,810 $78,181,097 $40 4 4 2 Oblivion Uni. $5,642,335 -68.3% 3,430 -362 $1,645 $75,814,250 $120 3 5 5 The Croods Fox $4,202,639 -37.5% 2,915 -368 $1,442 $168,720,798 $135 7 6 4 The Big Wedding LGF $3,881,857 -48.9% 2,633 - $1,474 $14,216,422 $35 1 1 Iron Man 3 BV $72,525,615 -58.4% 4,253 - $17,053 $284,946,699 $200 2 2 N The Great Gatsby (2013) WB $50,085,185 - 3,535 - $14,168 $50,085,184 $105 1 3 2 Pain and Gain Par. $5,001,029 -33.4% 3,303 +16 $1,514 $41,609,229 $26 3 4 N Tyler Perry Presents Peeples LGF $4,611,534 - 2,041 - $2,259 $4,611,534 $15 1 5 3 42 WB $4,588,209 -24.2% 2,930 -415 $1,566 $84,670,088 $40 5 6 4 Oblivion Uni. $4,114,665 -27.1% 2,770 -660 $1,485 $81,906,280 $120 4

TF4 FF7 Day Yuan % +/- % BO -OW Total $ Tot Yuan % +/- TF4 vs FF7 Total $ Tot % Cume TF4 Mltplr DayxM +OW $Proj Fri 195 195 32 Sat 223 14.4% 418 69 51 - MN Sun 213 -4.6% 631 103 347 63.1% 398 64 -37.9% Mon 123 -42.1% 9.07 754 124 184 -47.0% 49.5% 582 94 -24.0% 11.03 2,421 390 Tues 112 -8.9% 8.25 866 142 167 -9.2% 48.8% 749 121 -14.9% 12.12 2,416 389 Wed 95 -15.7% 6.97 961 157 137 -18.0% 44.8% 886 143 -9.3% 14.35 2,358 380 Thur 84 -11.0% 6.21 1045 171 114 -16.8% 35.4% 1000 161 -5.8% 16.10 2,228 359 Fri 87 3.4% 6.42 1132 186 142 24.6% 63.0% 1142 184 -0.7% 15.58 2,604 419 Sat 130 48.8% 9.55 1262 207 225 58.5% 73.6% 1367 220 6.6% 10.47 2,748 443 Sun 118 -9.0% 8.69 1379 226 198 -12.0% 67.9% 1565 252 11.6% 11.51 2,670 430 Mon 54 -58.33% 4.02 1433 235 P 99 -50.0% 83.3% 1664 268 14.2% 24.85 2,852 459 Tue 53 -1.85% 3.95 1486 244 P 97 -1.9% 83.3% 1761 284 16.6% 25.32 2,852 459 Wed 43 -18.87% 3.20 1529 251 P 79 -18.9% 83.3% 1840 297 18.4% 31.21 2,852 459 Thu 39 -9.30% 2.91 1568 257 P 72 -9.3% 83.3% 1912 308 19.9% 34.41 2,852 459 AvePro 401 Str8 Up TF4 1st Week FF7 2nd Week TF/FF Day TF4 FF7 %Cume Day Yuan % Ch Total $ Tot Yuan % Ch vs TF4 Total $ Tot F/Su 1 195 398 104.3% Fri 195 195 32 142 -27.2% 142 23 S/M 2 223 184 39.4% Sat 223 14.4% 418 69 225 58.5% 0.9% 367 59 S/T 3 213 167 18.8% Sun 213 -4.6% 631 103 198 -12.0% -6.9% 565 91 M/W 4 123 137 17.5% Mon 123 -42.1% 754 124 T/Th 5 112 114 15.5% Tue 112 -8.9% 866 142 W/F 6 95 142 18.9% Wed 95 -15.7% 961 157 Th/S 7 84 225 30.8% Thu 84 -11.0% 1045 171 F/Su 8 87 198 38.3% S/M 9 130 99 31.9% P Day 8 DOM Total 211 S/T 10 118 97 27.7% P Day 8 CHI Total 252 M/W 11 54 79 28.4% P T/Th 12 53 72 28.6% P Total 1486 1911.5 28.6% Tot $ 244 308 26.5% Proj$ 30 319 404 26.5% Another amazing number. Nearly matching TF4s first Sat/Sun after all that burn off. Many thought a 20-30% drop from Saturday but it held tight like TF4 did. It just keeps pulling further and further away dollar and percentage wise. TF4 did well , not the typical crashes most movies have. right through its fifth and final weekend This weekend displays there is still plenty of demand to keep the PSA high and therefore the showtimes high through at least next weekend and should have decent legs through the end, decent for China anyway. TF4 fell 42% on Monday in week 1 and 58% in week 2. I'd like to think it could stay close to a 40% drop, however I put 50% to project tomorrow and put the TF4 drops for the rest of the week to project it. Last week it fell 47% after that huge opener sans midnights. If it can hold 50% or better it will have a $50m midweek and close to a 100m week and $350m+ in total.as it approaches Golden Week a few days later. Here is the last 3 weeks of TF4. They held better than average I assume because it was such a huge hit and the excess demand spilled over as well as WOM. I assume the same will happen with FF7 but on a bigger scale with better holds and a GW pop. 3RD WEEK: 53.7M/52.6M/43.7M/39.1M/41.7M/62.2M/57.7M 4TH WEEK: 25.7M/27.7M/23.2M/18.2M/16.7M/15.5M/25.3M 5TH WEEK: 12.3M/13.0/11.0M

are there any large local films opening next weekend? I assume there are a couple the following weekend for may day

ok, was just being funny btw, which part? the Melissa gludious maximus thing or the testicular gravitational pull?

ok. don't even know what a sig, but ill take it from you newbie, funny. been following BO since Jaws was released, long before Al Gore invented the internet how long has been since your [mod edit]

well? whats your bet/deposit?

I never bet. that implies chance. no chance of losing for me when it comes to the numbers. I just like to call it collections, Lets make the under/over 410 just to show how much more wrong you are. what are the stakes you are willing, sorry, going to lose? Name change to [mod edit]

apparently you do

CH- 420 OS- 700 Dom 350 1.47b WW Ch and OS could do a bit more to make it interesting

yes you were. and regarding the next post it will be closer to 1.5b than 1.4b. That's too close for never. Slim but possible You say TA2 overtaking it with certainty. that's 50-50 at best

TF4 FF7 Day Daily % Change % BO -OW Total $ Tot Daily % Change TF4 vs FF7 Total $ Tot TF4 Day Mltplier Day xM +OW $ Proj Fri 195 195 Sat 223 14.4% 418 51 - MN Sun 213 -4.6% 631 103 347 63.14% 398 64 Mon 123 -42.1% 9.07 754 124 184 -47.0% 49.47% 582 94 11.03 2,421 390 Tues 112 -8.9% 8.25 866 142 167 -9.2% 48.84% 749 121 12.12 2,416 389 Wed 95 -15.7% 6.97 961 157 137 -18.0% 44.82% 886 143 14.35 2,358 380 Thur 84 -11.0% 6.21 1045 171 114 -16.8% 35.39% 1000 161 16.10 2,228 359 Fri 87 3.4% 6.42 1132 186 E 142 24.6% 63.03% 1142 184 15.58 2,604 419 Sat 130 48.8% 9.55 1262 207 E 225 58.5% 73.61% 1367 220 10.47 2,748 443 Sun 118 -9.0% 8.69 1379 226 P Proj Ave 397 1st Week 2nd Week Fri 195 195 32 E 142 -27.18% 142 23 Sat 223 14.4% 418 69 E 225 58.5% 0.90% 367 59 Sun 213 -4.6% 631 103 Mon 123 -42.1% 754 124 Str8 Up TF/FF Day TF4 FF7 F/Su 1 195 398 S/M 2 223 184 S/T 3 213 167 M/W 4 123 137 11.3% T/Th 5 112 114 1.6% W/F 6 95 142 50.1% Th/S 7 84 225 167.2% F/Su 8 Total 1045 1367 30.8% Tot $ 171 220 28.7% I don't see how it misses 400m at this point unless they yank 66% of its theaters next weekend. Comparing FF7 2W toTF4 OW. It was a fine Friday increase but Saturday's was a huge . When you remove midnights from TF4 and opening day hype, FF7's second weekend is effectively matching TF4's OW, and this, after doing 1b/161m in sales. I don't see how it declines any faster percentage wise than TF4 did from its OW over the coming midweek, and if it retains showtimes, holds or outperforms TF4 next weekend, then if TF4 could make 217 after OW then its possible FF7 could follow suit 450M+ Holding similar declines from Saturday for the next 3 weeks projects 443m. Str8 Up Its running 30% ahead and wont give much ground back as M-T wont be much smaller than TF4's S-Su. This shows regardless of what day its comparing to, it keeps holding or increasing the percentage lead. 30% more at this point is $415m and it will increase that percentage later in the week. This is part market expansion, but the rest is a serious WOM bolstering the numbers. The demand is saying this going to a whole other level. What the powers that be do is another thing. Looking forward to the Monday and Tuesday numbers. The unrealistic is looking possible though... TF4 made 93m after its 55m second weekend. I don't see how this makes just 100m more after this 90m+ weekend to come in at 350m. I'll eat Omni's hat!

A report of an estimate is yet still an estimate. BOM cant calculate exchange rates, you're right he wouldnt and couldnt estimate if he wanted too. We knew it was happening in this thread. No need to explain it to me. I posted 1b was a done deal a few hours before the report came out.

250m yuan? that's based on what observation? can you confirm this johnny, Firedeep?

I forgot it opened in a few counties on wed april 1. Kind of not fair to count that day. Chalk it up as "midnights". 15 days.

china did 120m m-f BOM must be estimating rest of OS thru Fri (65m) to get to 735m/1B

OS should do 60m this weekend, down 50% from last when you add 4m from Japans OW CH 65m sat/sun, I assume fri is in the 1b count already 860m OS +/- 10m for sun 1.155B WW with a 180m ww weekend !,4b locked. TA2 may cut the legs needed to crawl to 1.5.. would've done 1,6b+ with last years XR Sick when you consider the 2nd and 3rd picture declined and the franchise was on the way to the junk yard.

Typical is the key word there. neither run is typical, TF4 did hold consecutive 50% drops then got wacked for weekend 4 to go on to blow the record to pieces. TF4 was summer but these weekdays were amazing Sunday OD is not typical and is it really considered a weekend? There are Monday openers and the ensuing weekend is considered to be the first. I know it all comes down to the showtimes that are given and competition and anything can happen in china, but its obvious the demand is still there and this "second weekend" will be the second biggest of all time and could be treated as a first weekend in theory. Especially when it was bigger than last. Im not saying its going to happen, just saw the possibility in the numbers as a feasable, but im sure 300m was unrealistic for TF4 and FF7 a week b4 they came out, proof that in an expanding market the unexpected and perhaps unrealistic are attainable. Corpse said that Frozen would "Never" best 230m in Japan for about 10 weeks, then locked it in week 11 or 12. The numbers were saying it was very possible by week 5. Fortunately we wont have to wait that long. We'll have a better idea if this will be 380, 400 or 420 in a few days. I want to see if Monday drops 50-60% from last or does it do 90% of TF4s Monday, just 40%, to fall in line w a 90m weekend. If so, a few days more to see if the unrealistic can turn likely.

safe to assume dom 274 thru fri os had to do 60 m-f ch did 120 m-f Yup. update thread Furious 7 Tread $730 OS/$1,000,000,000 WW in 15 days