RamblinRed

I don't see TS4 bombing. It's going to open to the biggest numbers since Endgame, currently has a 100% Fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes (with 80 reviews already over a week out), and Disney's marketing behind it - no way. Unless all the critics are delusional and the GA's WOM is not good this is likely to make alot of money. With SLOP2 underperforming it just makes it more likely that TS4 has a really big run as it really has no family competition until TLK comes out.

Last 24 hours have not been good. Took a big hit in theater count in the DOM market for this weekend. Lost over 900 theaters, over 20% of its total. I think it is looking at an 8 to maybe 8.5 weekend even with Father's Day as in the theaters it is staying in it appears to be getting the smallest screens. With TS4 coming out next week in over 4,400 theaters and probably at least twice as many screens I expect another big theater hit next week. Thinking a 105-107 final total in the DOM market.

$2,270 between Godzilla and RM. Good hold for Aladdin. Was hoping for 3.3, but 3.2 isn't bad and it is above its Monday which is the only movie in the top 6 to accomplish that. I think it will be right around 3 for today. If other areas are like where I live and cinemas are moving Aladdin into bigger auditoriums this weekend than it was in last weekend I think it will be interesting to see where it is by Sunday. I could see it finishing #2 on Sunday. Will be interesting to see how much more walk-up friendly MIB is compared to XDP. On the tracking thread its pre-sales are running roughly 50% of XDP at the same time frame.

Those numbers for MIB and Shaft are just depressing. Looking back at last week of the thread, MIB's pulse numbers are 1/2 of what XDP was at the same time. Looking at the Fandango MIB's numbers are 1/2 of what XDP's numbers were at the same time Wednesday, not even Thursday. Shaft's numbers are almost Hellboyish.

It was 292M WW as of Sunday. It took a pretty hard hit last weekend in Japan from Aladdin opening there. it was 16M Japan as of Sunday, It looks like for final numbers you are going to have 135-140 China 27-30 Japan 105-110 DOM So low end 267 and high end 280 for DOM+CH+J. Likely going to need 120M from the rest of OS markets to get to 400M. Problem is the OS markets in Europe and SA have been poor and will likely finish lower than DOM. If I had to guess i'd go with 390-392 as a final WW number.

You are probably being overly aggressive on Sunday. Most movies will have decreases on Sunday, just not quite as large. The avg last year was a 10% drop. One other note on Godzilla. I expect a significant theater count hit tomorrow. It has the 2nd widest numbers of theaters right now and this is the first week theaters can drop it. I've also noticed it is moving to smaller screens in the cinemas this week. The 2 closest to me are both moving it from a larger screen to one of their smallest. I do think your estimate pretty good, I'm thinking 8 to 8.5 as well.

So last weekend for AE in the top 10 and Pika probably will be #11 or 12. I could see both losing alot of theaters next week as they make room for TS4. Pretty much any cineplex with 12 or fewer screens is probably going to have to drop them to make room.

One thing I noticed this morning looking at the 2 cinemas closest to me that I tend to go to. Both are moving Aladdin into larger auditoriums this weekend than last weekend. In both cinemas it is moving from one of the mid size auditoriums to one of the largest ones. In both MIB gets the PLF auditorium. Then SLOP2 (on 2 screens) and Aladdin get the next largest auditoriums. In one cinema Shaft gets a mid-sized auditorium, in the other cinema it gets one of the smallest auditoriums. In terms of seat potential Aladdin is getting over 50% more seats than it got last weekend in the 2 theaters.

I thing I noticed this morning looking at the 2 cinemas closest to me that I tend to go to. Both are moving Aladdin into larger auditoriums this weekend than last weekend. In both cinemas it is moving from one of the mid size auditoriums to one of the largest ones. In both MIB gets the PLF auditorium. Then SLOP and Aladdin get the next largest auditoriums. In one cinema Shaft gets a mid-sized auditorium, in the other cinema it gets one of the smallest auditoriums. In terms of seat potential it is getting over 50% more seats than it got last weekend in the 2 theaters.

In the tracking thread MIB made a good jump yesterday - from awful to mediocre numbers. Looks like it will at least be in the 20's. If it continues to improve it could be upper 20's. Shaft is tracking at less than half of Ma at the same point in time so hard to see it doing anything above mid-to-high teens. LN is looking ok. Maybe 4-5M. I'm not sure under 45 is a good bet for MIB+SH+LN, under 50 probably is unless they are really walk-up heavy. Can't see Aladdin anywhere near 20. Anything over 16 would be good imo. Aladdin and Shaft could be pretty close. Ironically to this point Aladdin was #1 its first week, #2 its second week (though its true FSS was #1), #3 last week. Will it be #4 this week (or will it be #3 again).

Unless you like tracking films not doing well Aladdin is about the only game in town right now. Certainly doesn't sound like that is likely to change this upcoming weekend given the pre-sales for the new releases

That's not a good hold for Zilla. Worse than the drop of any movie last year on the same day (Solo at 64.9%). Most movies last year dropped in the upper 50's to about 61% and so far all the other reported for today are under 60% except RM. Since Zilla has the 2nd highest theater count after SLOP2 and this is the first weekend theaters can drop it I expect it to take a significant theater count hit this week with 4 new releases totaling over 7,700 theaters. Rocketman drop is ok, not great. I think RM is also likely to take a theater count hit this week. Week over week drop is good though. Will Aladdin have a sub 60% drop? That is what i'm interested to see. I expect XDP is likely to have a pretty ugly drop.

We saw Tommorowland in theaters. Did not see AWIT, MP or LR in theaters. Have seen all but LR at home. I think of Disney as a corporate brand that includes all its sub brands. Disney does not get a free pass - ie. we did not go see Dumbo this year for instance, but when it comes to Pixar, Marvel, WDA my family is going to want to see most films they release. BV is a little more hit and miss with the family. As far as the rest of their slate this year for example. TS4 will be a must see - especially for my wife and myself. TLK is a must see for all family members including my 25-yr old daughter. M2 - we'll see, probably not a must see, my gut is we'll skip it. F2 - that will be interesting. Not a must see for me. Probably will not be for my son. Don't know about the wife yet. Would likely be above M2 on the family list but lower than all the others. TROS - must see for my son and myself. Honestly I don't know of any must sees for the family other than the ones listed above. I've already seen a special screening of Yesterday and my son and I are going to a free screening of MIB Intl on Thursday at a huge theater (4,000+ seats). He didn't care about seeing Phoenix (we did see Pika and Shazam). He hasn't really shown any interest in wanting to see Joker. I expect we will see the Jumanji sequel at Christmas time. I'll be seeing Rocketman with my best friend. I'll probably get to 2-3 others over the last half of the year beyond what has been mentioned. it isn't helping that my daughter is getting married this fall, as that takes both alot of time and alot of money.

With Father's Day weekend coming up I would expect Aladdin to have a really strong hold this weekend. I expect Godzilla and Rocketman are going to take pretty heavy screen hits this weekend as you have 4 new movies looking at over 7,500 locations.

I think this is it exactly. The GA watching experience is changing imo. It was even referenced in the WB-AT&T article on Deadline last week. I probably see a dozen movies a year in a cinema, with time and money constraints that is what I can do. I can guarantee you that at least half of those will be picked by family members. Most of those will be films under the Disney brand as that is what my family trusts in terms of a movie going experience that everyone is likely to enjoy. No other studio has that trust for my family members. As TL mentions no other studio has had a run over the last half decade where most of the movies you see as a family are enjoyed by everyone in the family. Heck my son who loved SLOP had no strong desire to see SLOP2 in a cinema. He will see almost every CBM movie as he loves comics and doesn't care if it is Marvel or DC. The only one he hasn't seen is Dark Phoenix and he doesn't really want to see it. So my family has seen all the Disney releases this year except Dumbo (I am taking my son to see Aladdin tonight - our showing is sold out by the way). As mentioned in that Deadline article viewing habits appear to be changing. I think we are heading to a phase where alot of the smaller more niche films will either go straight to streaming or have a limited run in the theaters of 2-3 weeks and go to streaming. Most of the movies will be big tent pole type movies. Netflix not only changed TV viewing habits but it is also changing movie viewing habits imo. With all the other content providers starting up streaming services to compete with Netflix I think we will see more and more movies go straight to streaming.

The thing with CM was most people felt it was something you would absolutely need to see before AE because it was believed that CM would be a major character in AE. Turns out that was basically wrong. You could have gone into AE without seeing CM and it really wouldn't have mattered much as CM was a relatively minor part of AE. CM gained probably an extra 20M in sales late in its run as people went out to see it or see it again before AE hit.

What a low key weekend. All the actuals seem to be coming in just a little lower than estimates. SLOP2 even with the Fandango Early Access numbers comes in below KOTM OW.

See this is what is so fun - legitimate differences in opinion. for me the third act battle scene was one of my least fav parts of EG. I didn't think it was nearly as well shot as the climatic battle scene in IW and was derivative of it. OS93's who mentioned the lighting actually made a great point. I found the scene to look overly dark. To me it just felt like something they had already done in IW and didn't need to repeat in EG. I'm actually starting to tire of the battling the hordes scenes. I find it alot more engaging if you have 1 really strong villain to try to defeat than millions of disposables - that just feels like a video game to me. I definitely liked IW better than EG - but there will be plenty who felt the other way. For me IW felt more cohesive as a movie. EG at times felt like more than 1 movie, but I think the Russo brothers made the best movie they possibly could have given everything they were trying to accomplish in it.

What a bummer boring weekend. Nothing was really great in numbers. Phoenix is fantastically bad and SLOP2 not much better. if you compare Aladdin to the only 2 films from MD that made over 300M you would get a range of 288-296M for it. Now it has been tracking ahead of both for 7 days so if that continues that range starts to inch upward. If it had gotten 26-27M this weekend then I think getting to 300M would look a fair bit more likely. Right now it feels like it may come up just short but that could change in the next few weeks. it has been a pretty weak summer so far. Zilla is looking at right around 100M DOM, Phoenix is DOA. Rocketman is a little under where I thought it would be. SLOP2 could easily miss 150M DOM as I think much like Shazam it is in a bad spot where a movie opening before it is overindexing and then it has a movie in a couple of weeks that is going to chop off its legs. It's PTA isn't that much higher than Phoenix and lower than Zilla's OW.

I think it is likely headed to about $385M I think you can squeeze 25M more out of DOM, not 30. it's dropping slightly faster than 2014 and 2014 drops would get you to 103M (another 25M). None of the Euro or SA markets are doing well. Not much more coming. It's really on China and Japan to get it close to 400 (Aladdin went from 78 to 67M in Intl Markets, KOTM went from 130 to 47M). I think Aladdin's performance in both US and Japan are really hurting its legs. aladdin in Japan could turn out to be a killer - that just exploded there this weekend.

If DP has the same true Saturday increase as KOTM that would put it right at 11M Saturday. So Aladdin would need a 57% increase on Saturday to have a higher gross than DP. I think Aladdin's likely weekend is being underestimated. With a 7M Friday, a 60% Sat increase and 20% Sunday drop would give it a 27.2M weekend. Even a 50% increase with a 20% drop gets you over 26M. It would be impressive if Aladdin's FSS is higher than a new releases true FSS for the 2nd straight weekend.

Its just sort of the story of summer releases. There are so many movies released that the older movies and/or lower performing movies have to be dropped so that week's new releases can be shown.

Let's wait until Saturday on the numbers Deadline is reporting. It is barely 5 pm on the East Coast. These are just very early projections with basically no West Coast and only a handful of East coast shows to make predictions. Maybe they end up that bad, but i'm not convinced yet.

Remember the counts are theater counts not screen counts. It didn't lose 984 screens, it lost 984 theaters. I'd be willing to bet in most cases it is a theater that is getting rid of both films, not just one, to make room for new films. Especially given how close the numbers are in both terms of how many theaters they are losing (986 and 984) and how many they still have (2161 and 2121). Both DP an AE are pretty much on only 1 screen at all but maybe the largest cinemas at this point. Not all cinemas have huge number of screens. There are alot that only have enough screens to show movies on one screen and then for every new film they get they have to take a screen away. I suspect for most theaters it wasn't a matter or AE or DP, they had 2 new films coming out that they had to make room for so both get the boot as the lowest performing movies at that cinema.

Schools in the SE have been out since Memorial Day as well. It would be interesting to see if someone had the percentage of schools out. I'd be willing to bet its at least 50%. I think it is mainly the NE and Midwest that still has schools in.