RamblinRed

FWIW, when I saw FFH last night I tried to pay attention to audience reaction to the trailers we got. The only one that got a pretty positive reaction was Ford v Ferrari. H&S and OUATIH both got little to no reaction. Terminator didn't really get any reaction either. Midway was another one we got previews for. No reaction to that either though it looked much better on the big screen than on Youtube. We also got 21 Bridges and that got a little positive reaction. all of the trailers were the first time I had gotten them in theaters.

And it did take the big DOM hit. Dropped 54% on Tuesday to 150K. Lost alot of theaters.

Not really, people went to see it on Monday before FFH came out. Once FFH came out there wasn't really a reason for it to be seen by most. Also, every movie outside the top 5 declined on Tuesday this week due to FFH opening (most due to theater losses).

I expected it to drop, was just a matter of how far. The movies outside the top 5 took large hits in theater counts yesterday around me. KOTM went from 18 showings to 6. Theaters had to take screens from somewhere - it wasn't from TS4, which in general lost 1 screen per theater. Aladdin, Yesterday, Annabelle all kept their screens (and will all see Tuesday increases) That meant it was largely movies outside the top 5 or 6 that lost screens. I expected every one of them to post drops on Tuesday. SLOP2 and MIB were going to be the ones that might go either way. Everything else was going to see significant drops. This is why I thought 110 would not happen for KOTM. it was simply losing too many screens too quickly to get there.

One last note about FFH. If for some reason you haven't seen AE (I can't imagine this applies to anyone on here) and really want to see it and want to go in without spoilers do not go see FFH. Pretty much every AE spoiler is mentioned in the first 5 min of FFH.

Saw FFH last night on a $5 ticket with my son. Fun movie. I'd give it an 8.5. Tying my 8.5 for Aladdin as my 2 highest rated movies for me personally this summer. i liked the interactions with the teenagers. The action scenes were mostly great. The mid credit scene is awesome. I really disliked the post-credit scene (but my son loved it so to each his own). Should do well. FWIW. For the movies i've seen this summer ( and I have to be picky with time and money). Aladdin 8.5 (just an incredibly enjoyable movie) FFH 8.5 AE 7.5 (i liked AE, didn't love it. Liked IW more. It was somewhat disjointed as it was really about 2 1/2 movies in one and I disliked the battle for earth - I felt it was derivative of the Wakanda battle and frankly not as well lit or shot. ) Yesterday (saw a special preview screening of this weeks ago. Has my absolute single favorite scene of any movie i've seen this year. Movie should have been better than it was, but I came out quite happy. Interesting to see some people stay for credits not due to any post credits scene but because they wanted to stay and sing to the music running over the final credits). MIB 5 (saw a special free screening of this. Had some nice moments but not a very good movie). Will hopefully get to see TS4 this weekend sometime. Great increase for TS4 in the face of FFH. Good increases for Aladdin and Yday. Expected drop for AE. With FFH now in theaters i think this will start to fade back to where it was before the re-release. At this time yesterday I had 18 tickets sold for it at the theaters around me. This morning it is 12. I said yesterday there will be lots of ups and downs this 6 day period just because there are so many conflicting factors at play. Still seeing that. Wednesday drops should be very muted since it is July 3rd. I expect FFH to stay above 30. Thursday will have bigger drops since it is July 4th and people are with their family (many of them traveling) and doing bbq's and fireworks. Aladdin's run has been amazing. Had more consecutive days above $2M than AE. Has more $1M days. it just keeps chugging along. More days in the Top 5. It's legs have been nothing short of incredible.

Aladdin's run has been one of the most fun ones to watch in some time. It's legs have been fantastic.

This is going to be a fun 6 days to track. I expect alot of ups and downs as the week plays out due to different historical factors playing against each other and possibly offsetting each other at times. For FFH specifically. It opens on a Tuesday - which could mean some additional OD boosting due to discount tuesdays. July 3 is normally a big day (bigger than July 4th), but it will be FFH's second day, so will it play like a Saturday for a typical Friday opener. Thur should go down due to the Holiday. Then you have a 3 day weekend. How much demand is met the first 3 days and how does that affect the weekend. I'm not sure we will have a really good feel for the 6 day total until Saturday. For other movies. Tuesday is usually a big day. But alot of movies lost alot of theaters today. So I think the ones that got hit the hardest in theater losses could actually see decreases. I think there will be some movies that increase today and some that fall. Wednesday. Most weeks you get big drops on Wednesday - but with movies losing screens on Tuesday we may not see that as much this week. also it being a July 3rd should offset the drops. Thursday. Whatever movies make on Wednesday - they should see a drop on Thursday. Then we move into the weekend. With it being a long weekend for many what will the increases be like? Will they be more muted due to higher weekdays than normal?

Correct. Didn't lose any theaters, but it did lose a couple of showtimes. After the great Sunday hold and the good hold yesterday I'm expecting a decline for it today right now. It's selling fewer tickets than it was yesterday and one of the theaters it's in does the $5 Tuesday (i'm seeing FFH with my son on $5 tickets there this evening) so the tickets sold in that theater will be cheaper than yesterday.

Theater counts won't be available until Thursday -even though they went into effect today. Looking at my local theaters most movies outside the top 5 got hit hard (RM, MIB and AE are the exceptions). Also, SLOP2 took a hit in some theaters going down to 1/2 screen in a few of them. CP is largely getting 1 to 2 screenings per day at most of the theaters still carrying it. Ma, LN, KOTM, XDP, JW3 all have alot fewer theaters and showings with the first 2 gone completely. Most of these if they survived are getting a 1/2 screen. In general I am seeing FFH on 4-5 screens, TS4 on 2 to 2 1/2, Aladdin, Yesterday, MIB, SLOP, RM on one screen - occassionally in the smaller theaters some are getting a 1/2 screen (particularly SLOP2, MIB, and RM). For the couple of KOTM fans that I know are out there I went from 18 screenings in 7 theaters yesterday to 6 screenings in 2 theaters today. AE went from 17 screenings yesterday in 5 theaters to 15 screenings in 5 theaters today. So far I have 18 total tickets sold in those 15 screenings. 1 with 4 tickets, 7 with 2 tickets and 7 with 0 tickets sold. So after the good hold yesterday I will be interested to see if it takes a fall today. Those numbers are behind yesterday at the same point. I'm expecting smaller than normal Tuesday bumps for alot of movies with FFH opening. But Wednesday should see increases with it being July 3. I'm thinking when TLK comes out in a couple of weeks the only movies out now that are likely to survive are FFH, TS4, Aladdin, and Yesterday.

Historically July 3rd is a bigger day than July 4th. On the 4th people are with their families, cooking, watching fireworks so movie watching is actually down. The day before and day after are usually stronger as alot of people will take those days off.

The issue will be can it keep enough screens to get there. FFH may knee cap it starting tomorrow. In my area I have KOTM going from 18 showings (in 7 theaters) on Monday to 4 showings (in 1 theater) on Tuesday as they all clear out space to have FFH on at least 4 screens. If that happens elsewhere in DOM then it simply won't have enough showings left to get to 110.

DOM might get hit really hard by FFH this week if the theaters around me are indicative of the entire country. KOTM is going from 5 theaters with 1 screen each plus 2 other theaters with a single showing to just 1 theater with one screen starting on Tuesday. Going from 18 total showtimes today down to 4 on Tuesday. FFH taking an average of 4 screens per theater tomorrow is killing the movies at the bottom and outside of the top 10. 380-382 feels likely a good guess for an end number. While what they did was awful thanks to the Chinese Censures that allowed KOTM to stay in theaters there for that extra time. Without that I wonder if this would have crossed 375M WW total.

Great Sunday hold for AE. Would love to see TS4 hit 60 but it is now looking at a 2nd weekend above TS3. As usual Aladdin with great legs Yesterday probably hiy 17M with actuals and is the first movie to significantly outperform expectations since Aladdin. The movies outside the top 10 are going to get killed starting on Tuesday. Around me here are how the lower end films fare in terms of screens. XDP goes from 2 screens and 3 1/2 screens to 1 1/2 screen KOTM goes from 5 screens and 2 single showings to 1 screen JW3 goes from 5 screens and 1 1/2 screen to 1 screen All the other lower end films - LN, Ma, Anna are gone. TS4 loses an avg of 1 screen per theater on Tuesday - mostly PLF screens. But it still has an average of around 3 screens per theater Yesterday is actually gaining a showing at a couple of the theaters around me. FFH is opening on an average of 4 screens per theater around me including all the PLF's. the weekend TLK comes out is going to be a bloodbath for all but a couple of movies imo. I expect FFH and TS4 will still likely get 2 screens at most theaters. Aladdin will get 1. TLK will likely get 4-5. Those 4 movies will likely take over half the screens at most theaters, not leaving much room for other movies. Stuber and Crawl will only be in their second weeks so they will still get a screen. After that what is left for other movies. Except at very large theaters (20+) there isn't going to be many showings left. one other note for tomorrow. The theater near me that does the $5 tuesday promotion is including FFH with that.

Also, keep in mind according to a Deadline article this re-release has more to do with Marvel than with Disney. The article specifically states that the re-release is not part of some Disney master plan to overtake Avatar. It was more Marvel looking to ride FFH's coattails a little as it was released in the DOM market.

IMO aladdin drop will be closer to TS4 drop. AE will improve to - as mentioned by someone else I think it will end up around 5.8 (5.75). I'm expecting around a 30% drop today. It will likely have the worst drop of any of the Top 12. July 4th week should help keep it afloat some DOM, but by next Sunday i expect it will largely return to the levels it was before the re-release. As of 11 am there are 151 tickets sold for AE around me. That is for 15 shows across 5 theaters. One theater dropped an early showing of it today. That's out of 1,716 tickets available. I'm interested to see how well it did internationally. with July 4th just being a US holiday I think the Intl numbers will tumble quickly. Much like the original release I think the re-release will be pretty frontloaded.

That's about what I expected for it. I was projecting 5.8-5.9. I'm expecting a pretty big drop today. Local theaters are empty for it. And almost no ticket sales after the afternoon showing.

It wouldn't shock me if AE comes in below 6M by Sunday. I expect to be somewhat frontloaded. i just rechecked numbers at the 5 local theaters that are playing it around me and all of them have sold fewer tickets than they did for Friday at this point. I don't have a showing today that has sold more than 37 tickets and most of the showings are in the single digit ticket sales. I had a 4-6M range for the weekend and I am still thinking in that range. I think Saturday's increase is going to be pretty muted (I believe the hardcore fans went out and saw it yesterday - and some of those same fans will probably see it again today). Sunday's sales around me are really anemic (total pre-sales for Sunday right now at the 5 theaters combined is 66 tickets across 15 showings and 1,716 total seats available - 10 of the 15 shows have 2 or fewer sold seats including all 5 shows that start after 5 pm.) Something like 1.86 2.232 (+20) 1.675 (-25) 5.767 Would not surprise me. FWIW, Deadline has a good article on this re-release. It's not really a worldwide re-release. It's primarily the US and some, but hardly all of the OS markets. https://deadline.com/2019/06/avengers-endgame-re-release-avatar-record-spider-man-far-from-home-box-office-1202639520/ This weekend’s new cut of Endgame is primarily a domestic play largely pushed by a digital marketing campaign. Abroad, the pic will play in Latin America (Mexico), UK/Ireland, Germany, Spain, Russia and some Asian Pacific corridor countries including Australia/New Zealand and Japan.

If you want another really impressive run go look at Home Alone.

That's a good start.

Shaft got the Shaft this weekend. Almost 70% theater drop. Ouch for both KOTM and XDP as well. All three of those are basically dead at this point. That type of theater loss just kills any potential you have.

Here are the pre-sales this morning for AE around me. One thing to keep in mind, if it was a wide release it would be in about 9 theaters around me, it is in 5. Most of the theaters are doing 3 shows a day. A lunchtime show, late afternoon and one at night. One theater is squeezing in 4 shows a day. Movie Tavern after Saturday is dropping it to 2 shows a day and keeping it at that through July4th week. Movie Tavern 12 Fri 3/108, 6/108, 38/108 Sat 1/108, 11/108, 27/108 Sun 4/108, 0/108 (only 2 showings on Sunday) Regal Cherokee 16 Fri 9/77, 5/77, 8/77 Sat 8/77, 2/77, 8/77 Sun 9/77, 2/77, 2/77 Regal Town Center 16 Fri 5/212, 7/212, 22/106, 9/139 Sat 5/212, 6/212, 4/106, 2/139 Sun 6/212, 5/212, 0/106, 0/139 AMC Barrett 24 Fri 2/216, 0/216, 14/216 Sat 2/216, 6/216, 6/216 Sun 0/216, 5/216, 1/216 Merchants Walk 14 Fri 0/61, 4/61, 13/61 Sat 2/61, 4/61, 6/61 Sun 2/61, 4/61, 0/61 I just look at these numbers and think the theaters are going to want to get rid of this pretty quickly. Doesn't really seem to be selling around me at all. I only have 3 shows out of 47 right now that have sold over 20 tickets, only 6 that have sold over 10. How many tickets had it sold on Fandango before that stopped reporting numbers? was it about 6,000? I also am wondering if it is going to do well in some areas but poorly in others. There are reports from some on this site that it is selling well around them, but that is not the case for me. I only have 1 show out of 47 that has sold more than 25% of its seats.

This is what I am expecting as well. I will say I sort of expect it to fall off a cliff on Sunday. The pre-sales for Sunday around me are really poor. I'm sort of thinking a solid Friday. A flat Saturday and a steep drop on Sunday (30%+). I'm also expecting it to be more pre-sale fronted as opposed to more walk-up. I just don't think the GA is going to come up and say let me sit through AE with an unfinished deleted scene for another $15.

Expanding to roughly 1,950 theaters (an increase of 965 from last week) with a 're-issue'. Some think it is going to pull fairly big numbers - maybe up to 10M, i'm not that convinced. There is really nothing to bring the GA in. One unfinished deleted scene, a tribute to Stan Lee, a special FFH sneek peak and an intro from the directors. The true fans will like that but I think most of the GA will just ignore that and not see it worthwhile seeing the same 3 hr movie they already saw again. The fact it is only going to be in 1,950 theaters and that most will have 3 showings a day limit its upside potential. Based on what i'm seeing at the 5 local theaters i've been checking the last 2 days i'm thinking 4-6M for it this weekend - with most of that coming Friday and Saturday. (Sunday and Monday sales are basically non-existent at this point around me and the highest ticket sales so far is 29 for the Friday evening showing at the Movie Tavern - in a 100 seat auditorium). I have alot of instances in the theaters around me that have 0-3 tickets sold in a 150-200 seat auditorium.

Charlie in the Thursday numbers thread posted 7.1 including previews. He also mentioned TS4 at 11.9 and Aladdin at 1.73 and said nothing else was even worth posting.