RamblinRed

Yeah that's a huge complex. it draws from the surrounding area as well. There are alot of people who go to Disney Springs who don't go to the parks. They are staying at the condos/hotels nearby as well as locals. But I would also expect it to overperform compared to other theaters.

good hold for FFH, though below HC's hold for 2nd Monday. Comparing it to CM makes no sense. It was released at a different time of the year (you can't compare a summer weekday with a winter/spring weekday) and CM got about a 20M boost from AE's release at the end of its run. FFH will not get that at the end. HC is the obvious comp. if you just throw the first 3 days into the opening weekend total then you have the exact same release pattern. I'll wait for the officials as Charlie's weekday numbers for FFH have sometimes been a little higher than actuals. But as of Sunday actuals the same run as HC would get FFH to 401.5 (if Charlie's Monday number holds it would be 401.6). So FFH is just hanging onto 400. Analytically I don't think that will last. What FFH has to weather the next 3 weekends is way more than what HC had to deal with. HC went 6 straight weeks with drops of 40% or less (all but week 3 were sub 35% drops). It had a 49.9% drop in weekend 3 where FFH is likely to have a 56-59% drop this weekend as it will lose IMAX and PLF and have to deal with a huge debut. Then next week it has to deal with TLK's second weekend (which is likely to be larger than any opening weekend HC had to face) as well as OUaTiH. And then in weekend 5 it has to deal with H&S - which could potentially open higher than any movie opened during HC's run. It would be awesome for FFH To get to 400, I just see it is as unlikely. Just like I don't expect TS4 to stay in front of TS3 even though it is ahead of it right now. I think ultimately FFH will end up in the 387-391 range (GOTG2 +-2) and TS4 in the 405-410 range (3.35-3.4 multiple). I'm expecting FFH to have a higher jump on Tuesday than HC and then bigger drops on Wed and Thur. Then i'm expecting it to have a weekend about 2M below HC's third weekend.

Amazing hold for Aladdin. As far as movie watching - I generally get to about 12 a year. Having a family will do that to you. Almost all the movies have been on Tuesday or weekend matinee. I'm actually ahead of pace this year (partially due to getting to see 2 movies as special free screenings - would have seen Yday regardless, MIB likely would have skipped). LEGO2 CM (Thur night) Shazam Pika AE (Friday afternoon) Aladdin Yesterday (free screening) MIB Intl (free screening) FFH (Tuesday night $5 tickets) TS4 Family has tickets to TLK for this Friday afternoon. I'm hoping to see Rocketman with a buddy in the next week or 2 After that TROS is the only definite. Frozen 2 is pretty likely as is Jumanji though neither is a guarantee. Looking back on it now I don't think I have paid full night price for any movie this year except CM. AE was a Friday matinee and FFH was discount Tuesday. TLK will be at a matinee price as well. TROS is likely to be the next movie that will be at full price as my son will want to see it preview night. So I guess looking back I have seen 10 movies in the theaters so far this year and paid for 8, with only one being paid for at the full night ticket price. If I didn't see movies at matinee type prices i'd probably reduce my movies seen by 25-30%. With my daughter getting married this fall and my wife going through breast cancer recovery i'll likely be seeing fewer movies in theaters for the next 12-18 months as I don't expect to have alot of discretionary income.

This is why i don't think it will get to 400. It basically has to have HC legs to get there but HC had a very different environment to work with. HC had to face it's biggest opener in weekend 2 - WotPotA and that was only 56M and then had a 50M Dunkirk in week three. After that it was completely barren until It come out with only a 35M A:C and then mostly sub 20M openers. FFH had basically no competition this week and was still barely able to outsell HC. This week it is going to have to deal with a 175M+ opener and then in week 4 will have the 2nd week of that movie (likely to be 70+) plus OUaTiH which could be a 30+ and then in week 4 has to face H&S which could open larger than any movie HC had to face. it simply isn't going to be able to have HC's legs with a much more competitive environment. HC ended up basically 1M from GOTG. i'd be willing to bet that FFH comes within 2M of GOTG2. By next Sunday if not sooner i expect FFH to fall off the 400M pace (though there is no shame in that.)

solid hold for FFH. Not a great hold given how weak the box office was this weekend. It got to keep all its theaters, got to keep PLF and IMAX and had 2 newcomers that could fall under 20M combined with actuals. Will fall off the pace of 400 by next weekend but should end between 385-390. SM and GOTG are going to hang right with each other. Great run for it overall.Tom Holland is my fav representative of Peter Parker, but Spiderverse is my fav Spider-man movie. Another incredible hold for Aladdin. Will likely move past Yday next weekend (will also move past Stuber and it wouldn't shock me if it moves past Crawl). i think it will be back in the top 5 on Tuesday and will almost certainly be in the top 5 next weekend. Good holds for Yday, SLOP2 and TS4. Yday should already be turning a profit for Uni. I expect SLOP2 and Yday to take hard hits against TLK. TS4 looks like it should leg out to just over 400M. Good hold for ACH, but its going to take a huge theater count hit next week. AE will pass Avatar but it won't do it just with DOM. Charlie's chart for its DOM is overly aggressive. It assumes a linear decline and that is not what happens. Declines have inflection points where screen losses kill your BO. It is likely to lose at least 50% of its screens next week (it has the lowest PTA of the Top 13 so most theaters are likely to dump it to open up screens for TLK) so i'm expecting a 60-65% drop in its BO.

both FFH and TS4 end up below their comps for Friday - hopefully they have better Sat increases. Everything below the top 6 is going to have their theater counts slashed next week. #5 and 6 will probably see smaller decreases. FFH probably doesn't lose any theaters (or just a handful in very small theaters) but could see its screen count cut by 50% next week. TS4 will lose some theaters but probably not a huge drop.

The theaters have to take the screens from somewhere - TLK will likely be the widest release since AE in terms of total screens - certianly more screens than FFH, i think AE is going to lose alot of theaters next week. I'm thinking at least 700, wouldn't shock me if its closer to 1000 of its 1400 theaters. AE will finish 11th this week, TLK is effectively like having 3 blockbusters all open the same weekend in terms of screens counts. The Stuber and Crawl being in week 2 are protected. The other movies in the top 5 will largely keep their screens as they are the best returning product (though FFH may not lose many theaters it will likely lose alot of screens). But anything below the top 5 is likely going to take hard falls to make room for TLK. TLK is a much bigger movie than TS4. Probably at least 50% greater opening and in terms of screens it will take more screens than TS4 did. I'm expecting at least a 50% drop and something closer to 60% wouldn't surprise me in the least. AE, SLOP2, MIB, JW3 are all going to get hit really hard in theater losses. ACH is the another one that could see huge losses as it is in the 3rd most theaters this weekend but will be probably #7 in gross.

FFH is about 400K behind HC's Friday. Hopefully it has a bigger jump on Saturday. TS4 is a little over 100K ahead of TS3 on Friday. Looks like Yday will get to about 48M by Sunday. Aladdin is close enough to Yesterday that maybe it could jump it today, we'll see.

It lost over 500 theaters this weekend. It'll be worse next weekend when TLK comes out.

I'm not there yet. if it has HC's run the rest of the way it gets to 400.36M. To get to 400 it has to match HC's run from here on out or it will not make it to 400. That is going to be tough as it has more competition to deal with starting i week 3 than HC did. It has no cushion right now. The biggest opening HC had to deal with was in weekend 2 and that was a 56M opener. FFH is going to have to deal with an opener that is going to be 3-4X that in weekend 3 and then deal with another opening of likely that size in weekend 5. HC had to deal with openers weekend 2 - 56M - WotPotA we 3 - 50M - Dunkirk we 4 - 26M - (2nd weekend, highest opener 24M) we 5 - 19M we 6 - 35M - A:C we 7 - 21M we 8 - 10M (2nd weekend, higest opener 4M) we 9 - 10M ( Labor Day weekend, no new openers) FFH is going to have nothing over 15M in weekend 2 - it needs to build up a little steam over HC here. we 3 its going to get hit with a huge opener. we 4 - going to have the 2nd weekend of TLK that could potentially be larger than anything HC had to face its first 10 weeks plus an opener that could be 30M+ we 5 - going to get a 3rd weekend of TLK that could be over 30M as well as a new opener that could be larger than anything HC faced. Like TLK is probably more competition for the same audience as FFH than any movie HC had to face. HC had War of the Planet of the Apes and Dunkirk and The Hitman's Bodyguard and Annabelle Creation. None of them were really direct competition. I think the environment overall was better for HC to have great legs than it is for FFH. 400M would be a great win for FFH if it can get there. I'm hoping for something in the upper 40's this weekend.

i would expect these estimates to go up as the weekend goes on. FFH needs to get to at least 45M this weekend. Anything less would be a minor disappointment imo. Not surprised about the newcomers.

My single biggest thought is that I am simply not going to bet against Disney this year for most of their tent poles.

That's a realistic number, but I feel like boxofficepro is almost phoning it in these days. They made minor downward adjustments to both OUaTiH and H&S, but other sites are giving much lower numbers to them. they have changed TLK since they put it on their site. Deadline mentioned that OuaTiH went on tracking at 25-30 and H&S at 55-65.

Yday is actually getting a 5.5% increase in theaters this week, an extra 141 theaters. Aladdin has a 7.3% decrease in theaters this week, losing 201 theaters. I expect Yday to hold well. Probably 6M+. Yday will actually be in more theaters than Aladdin this weekend.

So FFH managed to stay just in front of HC, good. To keep 400 in play I think it needs at least a 46-47M weekend. It's just going to have so much more competition in late July through mid-august than HC did. TLK next week. Then TLK 2nd weekend and OUaTiH in weekend 3 and then 3rd weekend of TLK and OW of H&S in weekend 4.

if my family is anything to go by i'm not overly concerned with the reviews (Aladdin should have taught as that - as should have any number of other movies that critics didn't love but the GA ate up). My family saw a new commercial last night and almost lost their minds. Rewatched it 4 times. I mentioned afterwards the reviews and that it was getting dinged for being just like the original and my family's reaction was good, that is what they want. They want the same songs, the same dialogue, just updated with real looking animals. They would be disappointed if it differed in any significant way from the original. We'll know when we start seeing the scores next Friday.

Congrats to Aladdin. Should get to at least 52 days. Move it into a tie for 8th. Excellent hold for FFH. It needs a strong performance this weekend (at least 2-3M above HC) to have a good chance at 400M imo. It is going to get whacked in week 3 and HC's legs were so strong it is alot to ask FFH to match them. With no movies coming out this weekend to take IMAX and PLF, nor expected to do well holds should have been stronger than normal on Thursday and this weekends holds should be better than normal. Next weekend is likely to be a different story.

I think HC's legs work against FFH. HC had a really dead marketplace after week 3. Only 2 movies had over 30M starts (Dunkirk, Annabelle) over a 7 week stretch. There wasn't much in the marketplace which helped HC's legs. Basically from the last weekend of July through Labor Day weekend nothing was making much money. TLK by itself will change that scenario and H&S and OUaTiH have some potential as well. FFH needs to put as much space as possible between itself and HC as i think it will be in a more competitive marketplace and will therefore have a more difficult time have the same holds as HC did. You can't really count on FFH to match HC's late legs, you can only hope that it does.

if FFH is going to leg out to 400M this is a big weekend for it. Needs a 46-47% drop. it has given back 2M to HC in weekdays so far. HC had War of the Planet of the Apes (56M) in its 2nd weekend and l believe lost most of its PLF and IMAX. FFH has 2 openers that will be lucky to get to 25M and it gets to keep its IMAX and PLF. But it weekend 3 it will lose its IMAX and PLF and have to face a monster of an opener. if it has HC's run from today it would get to 400.2M. Though if I was a betting man something around GotG2 seems likely.

Congrats to Aladdin staying above $1M. One more day and as others said it would get to 52 days. This puts it at 48 breaking a tie with Frozen, This is the 4th time in the last 6 weeks that Aladdin's Wednesday has been above its Monday. FWIW, Aladdin's Thursday drops have been -14% (lost IMAX and PLF screens) -7% -5% -4% +4% +5% (July 4th) Anything -7% or better would keep it above 1M on Thursday. With no big releases this week that seems like a good (but not guaranteed) bet. Fantastic holds for both TS4 and Aladdin. To have sub 40% drops after 60% increases is impressive. Yesterday will be even more impressive if that number is accurate - hard to believe it is though.

TS4 and Aladdin with 60%+ jumps. Will be interesting to see their drops tomorrow. Hope Aladdin stays above $1M.

And NBC is pulling the Office off of Netflix for its own streaming service. According to VOX, The Office accounted for 7% of all Netflix views and Friends accounts for 4%. Those are the 2 most watched shows on Netflix.

Fantastic jumps for TS4 (63%), Aladdin (59%) and Yday (55%). The family movies just kill it on Tuesday's. That's not a surprise as most movies I see will be on either a Tuesday evening or Sat/Sun matinee. Hopefully Aladdin stays above 1M today and gets to 48 consecutive days above $1M, which would move it ahead of Frozen. Aladdin passed Shreck 3 on Tuesday and should pass DP2 and Suicide Squad on Thursday. Feels like 400 is going to be really close for FFH. A run equivalent to HC from this point on (comparing FFH day 8 to HC day 5) gets FFH to 396. FFH's monday actuals ending up being about 300K below what Charlie reported (10.876 vs 11.2). Hopefully that doesn't happen today. Nice increase for ACH. This one is going to make alot less DOM and WW than the previous 2 entries but will still be very profitable for WB.

Aladdin now has the 13th longest streak of consecutive $1M days, moving ahead of JW, WW, TFA, TS3, IO, SM, IW, HG:CF, HG:MJ1 It will tie Frozen today. The movies in front of it Titanic 101, Avatar 80, ET 80, SW:TPM 61, FN 59, JP 54, Shresk2 54, BP 52, I2 52, Avengers 52, PotC 48, Frozen 47 FWIW, it had the 16th longest streak of most consecutive days of $2M. Only 2 movies above it made less than 400M DOM in that streak. FN and DM2 -2 animated movies.

The-numbers reporting 10.9 for FFH https://www.the-numbers.com/daily-box-office-chart