Porthos

This is a very good point. Spring Break is the most variable holiday/pseudo-holiday in the entire box office calendar (at least winter break only shifts by about a week/few days in either direction). Even within a given market, can be variety, both from different K-12 school districts and from various colleges. I haven't checked locally to see just what is out (I presume Not Much), but I have noted a slight uptick* in later showtimes that might be the college-age crowd going out for a fun time at the movies. I don't think the KFP franchise has any sort of stoner following, but I could see a slight (and I do mean slight) uptick from the college going crowd, especially the ones right at the edge of the nostalgia curve. * ie: any sales at all. All of the above is to say I have noted groups of 10 or so ticket sale groups in the 9pm and later window, which is a little unusual for this type of film. Not a huge amount of sales, no (I did mean it when I said slight). But that there's any at all made me raise an eyebrow a tiny amount and file it away for future reference.

Quick and Dirty Kung Fu Panda 4 Sacramento Report [T-1] 1259/20719 (6.08% sold) [+360 tickets] [187 showtimes] 1.28338x Elemental at T-1 [3.08m] --- 0.60529x GBA at T-1 [3.08m] [adj'ed for ATP hikes since 2021] 0.99447x Wonka at T-1 [3.48m] 0.43670x Sonic 2 at T-1 [2.73m] 0.31318x Minons 2 at T-1 [3.37m] 1.17774x Shazam 2 at T-1 [4.00m] 0.88413x Haunted Mansion at T-1 [2.74m] ======== Yeahhhh, not liking what I'm seeing. Not the best comps, no. But falling against most of the ones already above 3.5m. Broadly similar to what I remember seeing out of Florida from @TheFlatLannister and what both @el sid and @dallas were showing in their tracks. Gun to my head, maaaaybe 3.2m. Ish? Probably has enough juice to pass 3m at least. Beyond that? Well, it's a Q&D so no Dark Magic on the line here. Next, and final, update will be around 4:30pm PST, as I don't do mid-day updates for these sorts of tracks.

It's either gonna be under 225m or over 325m; I don't make the rules here, just remind folks about them once they've been made. And since it looks likely like it won't be under 225m... (yes yes, exceptions to every rule) ((lemme have my fun here, alright? ))

Just sayin'...

Still think thanks to the nostalgia factor, KP4 will be a tick above the Trolls and Elementals of the world. Closer to them than Wonka though, yeah there I'd agree. If it wasn't for the "four tickets please" factor, I'd say Minions 2 might be nearly perfect. Sonic 2 might be better in that regard, though probably still skewing more adult/teen than KP4. But we're also getting to the stage where the ATP hikes since then start to matter (as even though Minions 2 and Sonic 2 came out after the NWH/Bats related surge, probably still been drifting up a bit since then). If it wasn't so tepidly received didn't have such a short presale window didn't have a ton of question marks around the reported preview number, Lightyear might be the best yet on a pure ATP factor. But I made a vow long ago to never use that as an official comp, even though Shawn was told it was indeed accurate. Might glance at it at final bell and see what it spits out for shits and giggles, but that's about it.

Welcome, brother, to the

Makes complete sense, as I did indeed see an unusually flat, especially for a GA-skewing film, Mon->Tue ticket buying pattern for KP4. Saw relative flatness/tepid/al'ight growth in some other markets as well. Admittedly it did do well in some other markets from what I recall. But already showing signs of... atypical buying patterns for this type of film. Last minute review drop is another curveball to factor in, FWIW. Have to see how a T-1 drop affected things as well.

If we accept the premise that these are usually about setting expectations/working the refs to a degree, I'd say they're trying to project confidence in KP4 as well as work in an angle where THEY'RE GONNA BEAT DUNE 2 FOR NUMBER ONE, OMG!! GO WATCH THIS NEW POPULAR FILM **THAT's GOING TO BEAT OUT DUNE 2, EVERYONE!!!!**!! Ahem. That is, might be that they're trying to build some buzz/show support for the film. Dangerous play to make as no one ever likes seeing the "film X does less than expected" headlines, but seems to me that might be what they're doing here. Or maybe their internal tracking is just showing something different. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ But given how prevalent intentional undershooting for good headlines is in the industry, it is notable to see an optimistic projection no matter what the reason is. (before anyone comments, projections from the studios last year for CBMs were likely based on faulty presumptions/being beholden to old data patterns/not catching up to new market realities — new market realities that shifted so relatively fast that they couldn't even play the expectations game, even if they wanted to [and they usually do])

Had way too much on my plate late last night, so just got to latest episode. Without getting into spoilers, that was much more what I was expecting initially when it came to the Crosshair/Hunter dynamic. Another solid entry. Not epic, no; but well executed. I especially liked the observation from Crosshair about what was really eating at Hunter, and I think he's exactly right in that regard. Was also surprised that Have some other observations, I think. But for now I'll just settle with... I'm happy that Crosshair and Hunter were forced to.... break the ice.

Quick and Dirty Kung Fu Panda 4 Sacramento Report [T-2] 899/17963 (5.00% sold) [+164 tickets] [166 showtimes] 1.33581x Elemental at T-2 [3.21m] ---- 0.59536x GBA at T-2 [3.03m] [adj'ed for ATP hikes since 2021] 0.87879x Wonka at T-7 [3.08m] 0.42891x Sonic 2 at T-2 [2.68m] 0.32882x Minons 2 at T-2 [3.53m] 1.11125x Shazam 2 at T-2 [3.78m] 0.82251x Haunted Mansion at T-2 [2.55m] === Kinda stalled out today, locally. Increased slightly on some comps, dropped slightly on others. Don't know if it was a blip, lack of reviews being out, or just-one-of-those-things. Not nearly as high on 3.5m as I was 24 hours ago. Mind, Q&Ds are always a little squirrely, and I make absolutely no guarantees about them, especially 48 hours out, but... Yeah. See what T-1 brings before I shore up any more thoughts.

Yeah, I dunno 'bout a LTBC comp as the week+ headstart might tip the scale a bit. OTOH, maybe by about the fourth or so day of sales it could be pretty interesting comp. ATP also rears its ugly head for such an old comp. But, then again, I'm of the belief that comps tend to have a shelf life of about three years, so LTBC does just make it in by a few months. I'll keep it in mind, with some sort of ATP adjustment if it looks reasonable-ish.

It wasn't going to be about THE Manadlorian, no. Not likely to be part of the Mandalorian megaplot, either. Rumored details were in one of the links I provided in my last post. But my point was mocking EA for obsessing about lightsabers archly noting that just as SW is putting more of a focus on Jedi-lite/pewpewpew in the movies, EA dumps a game which would be precisely that. I would also note that a decent chunk of the SW gamerdom has been clamoring for a bounty hunter game for a long time now (1313 being cancelled long ago, is often brought up in these sorts of discussions). Will say that fans have the chance to put their money where their mouth is with the upcoming Outlaws from Massive/Ubisoft, as though that seems to be more "scoundrel gets in and out of jams" than "bounty hunter" based, it's still on the pewpewpew end of the SW spectrum. As a supporting point, Battlefront has been popular for decades and lightsabers is only a small part of that franchise. Now if it was either SW Jedi: Part Three *OR* Mandalorian Bounty Hunter Game, then it's a no brainer, as SW Jedi is a massive critical and commercial success. If however it's "SW Jedi was a massive and critical success... so EA will only make/greenlight SW games like that in the future"? Well, just another data point that EA doesn't learn about why people like various things and that they're repeating the mistakes of "no one wants to not enough people want to buy single player story driven games so we'll just make a bunch of micro-transaction multiplayer games instead" which one of the reasons why it took so long for something like Star Wars Jedi: Fallen Order to get made in the first place.

Nope. Game was abruptly cancelled about five, six days ago. Was part of EA laying off over 600 employees Now not exactly an unbiased source, but looks like if Respawn was allowed to cook, it would have been quite the tasty meal. This is pretty much EA Being EA. --- As I check, if there is a conspiratorial aspect here, it's perhaps repurposing development back to Titanfall, as Respawn is going back to that well, apparently. Which is somewhat ironic as I seem to recall hearing that the SW RTS from Respawn was using assets from the abandoned Titanfall 3. Might be grapevine stuff talking there, though. Either way, this ain't on LFL/Disney.

Anyway, with a slightly shorter pre-sale window than expected for GxK, BOSS might be one of the better comps for GxK. Exact same number of days of pre-sales, franchise property frontloading, but still a GA-ish skew. GxK will probably, probably, be more backloaded, but have to tell y'alls something. Exact same number of days of pre-sales goes a decent way for covering up sins. Is gonna hurt the RotB comps for a while though, as that went on sale at T-29 exactly two weeks longer. JWD becomes practically worthless until deeeeep into run given it had nearly a whole more month of pre-sales (starting at T-42). Even populist/GA skewing franchise entries like AtSV and Black Adam/John Wick 4 get hurt a bit given they had six to nine more days of pre-sales. To put all of the above slightly differently, not gonna see a U-curve in pre-sales so much as a V bounce or even a ✓ takeoff where there is a few days of deceleration before things pick back up again. Ah well, can't make things too easy, I suppose. (as I check my charts, also have FB3 at a similar length (one extra day of pre-sales which is practically nothing), but all sorts of problems with that comp locally as the Fantastic Beasts tends to do better locally than it does nationwide)

Ummmm... @misterpepp is as close to official as we can get and I for one massively appreciate them letting us know current plans. Yes, until the PR blast actually goes out, current plans can change. But, guess what? Ticket sales rollouts can change even after a PR blast, if rare. ... Just about as rare as pepp being wrong about a planned ticket drop. ETA::: In fact, as I scan their posts, I don't see a mention of GxK's ticket drop date from them. So why did we think it was today then, anyway?

Not a Disney decision, but Disney deciding to raise the profile of Mando and Baby Yoda more and more and more (really does look like a SW film is finally happening, for instance) makes it all the more bizarre/short sighted that EA decided to nuke the Respawn Mandalorian FPS game allegedly for "lack of Jedi/lightsabers" in it. Yes, cutbacks have probably a bit more to do with it, but only as much as "gonna axe something and something without lightsabers is gonna be on the chopping block first." Just incredible timing on EA's part, really. (and plausibly a massively own-goal one should the very Jedi-less Outlaws blowup on Ubisoft)

Quick and Dirty Kung Fu Panda 4 Sacramento Report [T-3] 735/14956 (4.91% sold) [+143 tickets] [129 showtimes] 1.38418x Elemental at T-3 [3.32m] ---- 0.62447x GBA at T-3 [3.18m] [adj'ed for ATP hikes since 2021] 0.45092x Sonic 2 at T-3 [2.82m] 0.38583x Minons 2 at T-3 [4.15m] 1.05301x Shazam 2 at T-3 [3.58m] 0.79978x Haunted Mansion at T-3 [2.48m] 0.85069x Wonka at T-3 [2.98m] === Like all other markets, def seeing growth. Prob gonna come down to just what the adult/teen ticket price to kids ratio is for this flick. I reckon it's gonna have at least somewhat of a stronger non-kids price ticket skew than Elemental simply for nostalgia. But I'm leery of putting too much weight on that quite yet. Out of all the comps, maybe Shazam 2?!? Dunno. Gut feeling maybe? Should be higher than Elemental at any rate; just not sure how much higher. Still, going up, as I said. Just have to see how high. (no, the comps aren't the best) ((that's why it's called a "Quick and Dirty" 👍))

Have to see how long it lasts, but I suspect PLF spillover is also playing its hand here. Be interesting to compare the drops with both The Batman and Oppenheimer. ("not it", BTW)

It's fine, really! It'd be boring if everyone around here had the same excitement level about things. Just, like I said, "give and take" is pretty deeply engrained into this board culture. As are loooooooooooong running jokes about posting habits/subjects. Hell, my own self-chosen subtitle ("Resident Star Wars Shill and Apologist") is a (slightly-)self mocking dig/realization that I can be slightly more forgiving about various Star Wars subjects than others 'round here.

I wouldn't take it personally, but I would say you sometimes can be a.... hmmm... Tiny bit exuberant when it comes to recognizing when folks have made some accurate prognostications. Like, giving props is a good thing! But it's a fine line between excitedly giving props and being somewhat OTT about it. Like I said, nothing really wrong with it. But, well, BOT is known for being a bit freewheeling at times, and part of that is give and take between members. Do have to make sure it never strays into personal attacks, or drags threads too far off topic, naturally. I don't know if I'd go as far to say "it's a part of our charm", but it def is part of board culture, going back literally over a decade.

Someone, somewhere, fucked up, as it's now being listed as 82.5m. Already corrected in the WE thread a while ago, but also commenting here for posterity. ... I'd say "it looks like I missed some drama" in the WE thread... But, really, "missed" is not the word I would use.

re: Crosshair reception. Well, I will note I did say I was "a little curious", not "found it surprising". As both of you said, it's not surprising. I suppose I could word it differently by saying "It's an interesting storytelling choice they decided to go down", as it was in fact a choice. An internally consistent logical choice, yes, but still a choice. as there were a couple of other as-logical paths they could have gone down in that scene. I suppose what really struck me was the near withering quality to the stares than the actual Cold Shoulder reaction. To put it another way, if I expected a 7 or 8 on the Cold Shoulder scale, I wasn't quite expecting a 9 or 9.5. Now the thing is, it is in fact internally consistent. Hunter has never really shown great... Hmm, how to put it. He never put "reuniting with/deprogramming Crosshair" at the top of his To Do List, even before Crosshair's Heel Turn. But I would have thought that Crosshair's actions at the end of S2 would have carried a bit more weight. I mean, after all, it carried enough weight for Hunter to actually try to bust Crosshair out of jail... ... which is where I think the not-so repressed emotions/survival guilt might come into play: (taking it out of the spoiler box since we're far past the informal spoiler period) I would not be surprised if Hunter (or Wrecker for that matter) blames Tech's death on Crosshair because Tech died on the mission to rescue Crosshair. "If you never betrayed us, we'd never have lost Tech trying to save you." Might not even put it in so many words, but the subtext will be clear. As is, I think, Hunter blaming himself (survivor guilt) and finally having a target he can unload on. ... No matter what the actual confrontation ends up being, I would be outright shocked if Omega wasn't the Peacemaker (amount of success she has at that, tbd). Never mind she worked with Crosshair and put herself actively at risk several times to save him, she's been the one out of all the Batch to consistently press for saving/reuniting with Crosshair From Day One. How much Crosshair wants Omega to be a peacemaker is another thing I'm looking forward to seeing play out. Gonna be all too easy for him to slip back into a snide, confrontational, belittling Crosshair instead of the one who has seen some real character growth pounded into him the last season-plus. Not exactly expecting a Quick Fix/Easily Forgiven situation here, no. But how it is fixed? Or at least "resolved". Should be interesting to see play out.

*logs back in* *sees the typical BOT Roller Coaster/Whiplash of Emotions during a high stakes OW* Oh yes...