Porthos

I agree with all of that, FWIW. The original reason why I... Hmmm, "playfully teased a bit" about the range all those months ago is I felt the numbers were a bit too... arbitrary isn't quite the right word so instead I'll say: a bit too inflexible/ironclad. As it is, I personally prefer the soft range that you're discussing here and agree with it 100% (or maybe 99.9999% as there's always room for comment after all). ... At the same time soft fuzzy ranges that are more like transition states make for terrible memes, so who am I to judge? 😛 (still, have to admit, will be HILARIOUS when Wonka just misses 225. 😉)

Was thinking about TLM as well, at least for the start. So already in the mix, as it were. Minions 2 will be good at the very end, but absolutely terribad at the beginning. Like, "WOW, Inside Out 2 gonna break Endgame's OW!!!! " level terribad. To show you what I mean, here are the beginning sales of AtSV and Minions 2 side by side. Minions 2: [10.75] Spider-Verse 2 [17.35] T-24: 68 T-24: 1019 T-23: 53 T-23: 253 T-22: 38 T-22: 87 T-21: 39 T-21: 101 T-20: 37 T-20: 99 T-19: 22 T-19: 42 T-18: 36 T-18: 81 T-17: 24 T-17: 60 T-16: 28 T-16: 79 T-15: 29 T-15: 71 T-14: 12 T-14: 94 T-13: 33 T-13: 83 T-12: 34 T-12: 85 T-11: 85 T-11: 93 T-10: 24 T-10: 154 One of those is not like the other. 👍

That is, SMB was an All Day release, and while we do have a couple of people who tracked it (those brave brave souls), All Day Releases are just a different animal than preview releases, if only because of the added matinee/early bird showings.

No previews = no track from Yours Truly. 🙂

AtSV comes into play, perhaps? Depending on the level of up front interest, which should be pretty high, think that could be the most natural if there is a Big First Day. ETA::: Talking sales pattern not so much sales level here, BTW.

Pity I won't have dailies for it. However, "knowing" that Sonic 2 is still a decent comp (and that Minions 2 will be good at the very end) helps at least somewhat. (the real Trump Card for me at least is GBA ATP'd. Love that I decided to do the dailies for that one as it still ticks all sorts of "ehhhh, maaaaaybe" boxes 2.3 years down the road)

Wonka just claimed that crown. At 217.7m right now. Does look like the $225m line is safe though (and I unironically note that this is another win for @M37 if a very close for comfort one). Should top out at, what, 221m? 220m to 222m? Something like that at any rate (unless it gets some late late legs thanks to Dune: Part Two).

The visual language of the trailer is perhaps an underrated point. The designs of the emotions themselves are pretty accurate (and funny/appealing) characters of the emotion in question. As are the tones/inflections of the voices of the emotions. Is the actual story all that new? Well, no. But very few stories are new. It's the execution which matters.

Having just seen the Inside Out 2 trailer this does actually make me wonder where to place IO2 on the spectrum of family skewed animated movies. On the one hand, IO2 should be targeting a younger demo than KP4. On the other hand, nostalgia for IO is gonna be off the charts (at least before WOM/reviews kicks in). On the third hand this is more aimed at teenagers than the Elementals and Migrations of the world. I do have Toy Story 4 and Frozen 2 from waaaaaaaay back in the day. But I consider those to be pretty much not worth much of anything nowadays. Movie landscape, both locally and nationally, is just too damn different to glean useful info out of any comps (or rather, I'd be massaging them so much that I might as well be looking at pig entrails for information). Alluded to the problems with Lightyear the last couple of days, and besides that looks to be broadly pointing to a similar PSM to Elemental, so might as well use the one I'm more confident in. So... I dunno. Plenty of time to think about it, but it does seem to me to be closer to the Sonic 2s and KP4s of the world than the Elementals. How much closer, I'm not as sure. Anyone have any thoughts on that now that we're getting verifiable data on KP4?

Just watched the trailer. It's gonna make bank. Why? Coz it is super super super relatable. "that's not gonna haunt us for the rest of our lives at all" "Well, THAT'S a preview of the next 10 years" Perfectly captures the angst that is teenagedom. And "fear of the future" as well as not fitting in in new surroundings/situations, which is the subtext of the entire trailer, is relatable to people of all ages. As for any supposed inconsistencies in world building? Witty writing and strong performances can paper over a lot of so-called sins. Might not make as much bank in today's landscape as it would pre-COVID, but consider me sold that this should do well.

Huh. Guess I should have gone with those three comps instead of Elemental/Lightyear Plus A Little More. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Well live and (don't) learn! ==== Is actually interesting that Minions 2 nearly nailed it. But I just thought that GentleMinions put too much of a thumb on the scale. Probably should have looked more at Sonic 2 as well, but I will admit that Elemental and Wish played a strong hand in my ATP thoughts here. Ah well, Q&Ds are Q&Ds for a reason. Should have a better baseline for the next plausibly more-adult-skewing animated family movie.

It's interesting that you mention this as I still haven't gotten a really great grasp on what to think about GBFE yet. I decided to take a bit of a closer look at the data from Sacramento I just posted and after seven days of pre-sales (so we discount the blip at T-10 for GBA which might be timing related), GBA outsold GBFE 431 to 415. On the other hand you can't just throw away those four extra days for GBFE. So if I just look at the last three days of sales, which includes the artificially inflated second day of sales for GBA (T-16), we get GBA's 116 vs GBFE's 90. Last two days of sales is more or less the same level (67 vs 78) But then there's the IMAX theater coming into play yesterday with a minor boost of sales. Plus two days is nothing when it comes to trendlines (well, neither is three, but...) So, like, the most likely result is GBA +/- a tiny amount (plus ATP hike). But we've had more than one object lesson recently that "most likely" does not necessarily mean "going to happen" (and, no, I'm not just talking about Dune: Part Two). So, I dunno. Most of the disparate comping IMO is thanks to wildly different pre-sale lengths as well as different genres = different buying patterns. But, still, gotta say that I've been somewhat impressed that GBFE hasn't had a flatter U-curve; both due to being a sequel (which means more frontloading from fans) and from a slightly longer pre-sale window. All of the above being said... Still don't have a great handle on the film, beyond "most likely". If that makes sense. (and it might not, given it's 3:30am my time ) ((really ought to get to bed, but your comment gave me the push to make a further comment that I wanted to make anyway)) (((okay, going to bed now, really!)))

Quick and Dirty Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire Sacramento Report [T-14] 453/19671 (2.30% sold) [+35 tickets] [116 showtimes] 1.43810x GBA at T-14 [7.32m] [adj'ed for ATP hikes since 2021] 0.89881x Sonic 2 at T-14 [5.62m] 0.49671x Black Adam at T-14 [3.78m] 0.39357x Wick 4 at T-14 [3.50m] 0.56343x RotB at T-14 [4.96m] 1.81200x Wonka at T-14 [6.34m] ---- Okay, before I say anything else, that GBA comp is a more than a bit misleading, as at this level of sales even four extra days of pre-sales will put a thumb on the scale. Still. Still, here are the first eight days of GBA vs the first eight days of GBFE side-by-side: GBA GBFE T-17: 199 T-21: 210 T-16: 49 T-20: 38 T-15: 27 T-19: 47 T-14: 40 T-18: 33 T-13: 49 T-17: 35 T-12: 37 T-16: 12 T-11: 30 T-15: 43 T-10: 99 T-14: 35 Broadly similar until T-10 of GBA (don't remember if that was a social media lift or not, but it's close enough to release to Be Something). If we normalize the dates, we get: GBFE T-21: 210 T-20: 38 T-19: 47 GBA T-18: 33 T-17: 199 T-17: 35 T-16: 49 T-16: 12 T-15: 27 T-15: 43 T-14: 40 T-14: 35 And it's not that different on pace, aside from a blip at T-16 for GBFE. OTOH, GBFE got added to the TrueIMAX theater in town yesterday and has promptly sold 41 tickets over two days, giving it a bit of a boost in this portion of the U-curve. Plus "past performance" and all that. Now none of the other comps except for Wonka (which isn't that good of a comp I KNOW) is pointing to above 6m, but... Well, gonna give a harder look at this than I was expecting. See how it goes over the next day or so, especially against both Sonic 2 (which started at T-24) and Rise of the Beasts (which started at T-29) plus give a deeper look at some of the other markets (none of which are this rosy for GBFE, from what I recall). What I will say is that except for the T-16 day, the daily sales for GBFE have been... Not Too Bad. Which says something. Not a lot, maybe, but still something.

Yeah, even if KP4 has some stronger than anticipated by some walkups, I'm just trying to put all of this into context. 🙂 (FWIW, walkups weren't anything particularly special in Sacramento, but my database for this type of movie at this size is pretty darn slim so I am more than willing to think I could be an outlier here)

Sure did. That's the other Recent Gold Standard of Blowing the Fuck Up. Started at Sunday T-4 but looking back can see the first glimmer of signs when the buzz first started coming out of those fan screenings. Lemme put it this way. The T-4 number was ***SO*** unexpected, I actually took the time TO RE-DO MY *ENTIRE TRACK* JUST TO MAKE SURE I HADN'T FUCKED UP SOMEWHERE. It was just insanity how much it exploded Sunday night and took off like a rocket ship after that point.

I mean, Minions 2 LITERALLY rose A MILLION A DAY ON COMPS THE LAST FOUR DAYS and still undershot it! Can claim all you want about not having great comps for it, and I suppose so. But literally no one saw this, ahem, rise coming from any of our tracks at the time (thread consensus, as I check was low to mid 9s). We had to scramble to figure out what the fuck was going on, and only when we ran into the GentleMinions meme, did it all make sense. And even then we were trying to figure out all OW long just how long the meme would burn.

Let's Play, Name That Movie! 🙂 Final?

None clue whatsoever. Sorry. 🙂. @M37 might know. I suspect @Shawn Robbins could chip in, in a general sense; both for what he generally looks for (without giving away Trade Secrets) and what the industry in general/the studios look for. But I suspect things like Google Trends and similar social media engagement metrics and similar survey data along side raw ticket sales (which is what we at BOT tend to fixate more on — well that and RT scores 😉).

I want to expand a little bit about this. Take Kung Fu Panda 4 in Sacramento. It sold nearly 1100 tickets today by stop of tracking, for about 46% of ALL of its sales from the entire pre-sale run. That's a nutty percentage for ONE DAY for a film. It still lost a slight amount of ground to Elemental, comp wise (going from a comp of 3.08m to 2.95m), as Elemental did 48.6% of ITS sales on its day of release (929/1910). Animated kid films just do bananas business on day of release as a proportion of all sales. Thus it can be a little tricky to try to figure how just how big the walkups will be since one is never quite sure just how big the walkups really will be. --- FWIW, 3.5m wouldn't be a surprise at all to me, since it's just at the outside edge of my range of 2.9m to 3.5. Hell, even 3.75m wouldn't be totally shocking as it just takes a higher-than-anticipated ATP/doing better in some parts of the country than others. At the same time, 3m ain't gonna be a surprise to me, either. tl;dr: tracking animated kids films can be wild; especially on the last day of tracking.

The thing about RotB is we saw the strong walkup performance coming about a week in advance. The thing about animation films, especially ones geared to kids is, they ALL have strong walkups. Well, the vast majority of them, at any rate. The tricky part is, figuring out just how strong those walkups will be, as since it's usually concentrated in the last two days, being able to see just how high the wave crests can be... difficult. If not impossible in some cases.

Binge release model. (yeah yeah, call me old fashioned but half the fun of these sorts of series in the as they come out discussions with other folks)

Quick and Dirty Kung Fu Panda 4 Sacramento Report [T-0] [FINAL] [3:55-4:20] (all showtimes before 3:55pm sampled at the start of screening) 2346/20841 (11.26% sold) [+1087 tickets] [188 showtimes] 1.22827x Elemental at T-0 [2.95m] ---- 0.77324x GBA at T-0 [3.93m] [adj'ed for ATP hikes since 2021] 1.18785x Wonka at T-0 [4.16m] 0.59377x Sonic 2 at T-0 [3.71m] 0.35594x Minons 2 at T-0 [3.83m] 1.41070x Shazam 2 at T-0 [4.80m] 1.01956x Haunted Mansion at T-0 [3.16m] ==== Sold over a 1000 tickets since last night; still fell against Elemental. Just goes to show how many tickets are sold for animation films on T-0. Now I did pull the Elemental sample slightly later due to me having to do The Flash track first (30 minutes later to be precise). So that could end up mattering. And more than a couple of these comps are flat out lol-worthy (Shazam 2, I'm looking directly at you here). Still think it's gonna have a slightly higher ATP than Elemental, but not by much. Let's go with my gun-to-the-head gut check last night and stick with 3.2m +/- .3m. FWIW, Lightyear spat out 2.98m which is.... But there was controversy over that being an under reported number for whatever reason. Not that I wish to revisit that controversy, but it is... interesting that Elemental and Lightyear are in broad agreement. Almost makes me want to call it 3m flat. But I just don't have the comp history to really call it. Come to think of it, this is selling a decent chunk of 3D tickets for whatever reason and there is a teeeeeeeeeny amount of PLFs at MTC2 as well. So, yeah. Gonna be "optimistic" and say 3.2. But a flat 3m wouldn't surprise, either.

Florida and Sacto have been singing from the same hymn sheet for this movie for quite a while. Haven't started my check yet (and didn't take a mid-day sample so this isn't even softing a result), but this is making me go before I even look. Here's hoping you're the outlier this time.

TLM is the only film post 'rona to break M37's Observation, coming in at 298.1m DOM. (couldn't even find the juice to cross 300m so M37 could just lower the observation to 300m. THANKS FOR NOTHING, DISNEY!!!) But TLM's release domestically had all sorts... unique* qualities to it, so at the moment it's very much The Exception Which Proves the Rule/Outliers happen. * Yes, I think that's a nice, safe, neutral word to use.

Not so much mocking as... Playful ribbing? No, not even that. More, noting that you have been very right about that observation, but if we follow it to its logical conclusion... ... Well, let me put it to you this way: Does Dune: Part Two really feel like a TLM type exception? MAYBE. On the other hand, the drops/rises this week do suggest that maybe you really are right about "things are either a really big hit or not that close, with little in-between" with Dune: frigging Part Two being your biggest example of the theory yet!