Porthos

Did a full check locally and, admittedly the day isn't over yet, but 24 combined tickets sold over Wed/Thr. On the one hand, that's about 42% of Nope's first day (2.69m — again noting the day isn't over yet). On the other hand, and I want to stress this very much: I mean, that it's sold anything at all is noteworthy. Beyond that? "Eh."

I should also add that there's Oppenheimer which started at T-49, but, maaaaan. I wouldn't want to throw that into a comp pile unless forced to simply because of all of the Barbenheimer hype that developed mid-run. Plus, you know, the teeny tiny minor different in ATP.

So taking a look around town and on the one hand, that it's sold anything at all is probably noteworthy. On the other hand this level of sales makes any sort of comparison... difficult. Only three movies released within the last two years really come to mind as even vaguely plausible. Fast X (started at T-*98*), we all know about. Might be good for first day, but that also had a big trailer event followed by a Super Bowl spot (indeed the whole point of it launching at a frankly stupid length of pre-sales). Only other two are JWD and Nope, both at starting T-42. Do I need to point out the problems with using a D1 comp against JWD? I should hope not. Which might just leave us with Nope. Should be similarly backloaded and perhaps the super long pre-sale window will paper over the differences between the backloadedness of horror versus action/adventure. On the other hand, at this level of sales even 9 more days of pre-sales matters. So maybe a.... decent-ish D1 comp for Nope and maaaaaaaaaaaaybe Fast X, as that started before the trailer launch party. But on D2 and beyond?

For people tracking The Fall Guy it's also got Wed EA showings. Looks to be a fairly full slate of EA, as well.

Alright, wanted to leave this as thoughts, but I will point out that if he was "just" an asshole, or hell, "just" creative differences, segments of the Entertainment Press/Internet are gonna flip out that a person who was both a minority and LGBTQ+ got fired where white male writers/show runners either weren't or were allowed to at least attend their premieres. That's what I was alluding to in a prior post. I know exactly how social media thinks nowadays. We all do. Unless something REAL BAD WENT DOWN SOMEWHERE (and, obviously I hope it didn't), a messy disrespectful breakup (and not inviting him to the premiere is pretty much the definition of disrespectful) is gonna be noted. And be a story in and of itself, no matter how irritating gossip story are to some. (and, anyway, Hollywood lives and breathes on gossip/disrespect stories and has literally since it became an industry 100 years ago so me pointing this out that this has a high chance of happening is like pointing out that the sun has a high chance of rising in the east tomorrow morning)

Or a very messy breakup where they didn't trust him to go off script at the premiere. Which... well I have thoughts about but gonna leave them as thoughts for now. No two ways about it though, this is horrible press. Unless something is leaked* within the next three hours or so, Disney is due to have an excruciatingly terrible press cycle or three coming up. *Or much much more cynically, made up

A non-explicit one though. Important to point out, I think.

And, anyway, I'm more talking about the tracking component as I think that will start to show up Real Soon Now in regards to comps for GBFE unless Sony really pushes the marketing to compensate.

But it isn't rotten/terrible, which is what the kneejerk reaction is when folks see a later review drop. Can see the overreactions on reddit in regards to KFP4, for instance. Now admittedly the social embargo is a tiny bit more of a red flag, but eh. Unless it's literally the day of release I tend to think folks read far too much into embargo lift dates, both negatively and positively.

Yes, but this one wasn't even related to his acting career. Other stuff in the article as well. I mean, you're right in that many child actors have problems when they grow up. But this doesn't look to be one of them. Or rather, he did have problems, but not connected to him being an actor.

*goes to post the DeVito "I started blasting" meme* *thinks* *two minutes of Googling later*

For lack of a better place to put this... A sad, interesting, yet hopeful read. Pulling for him. Also a reminder that unless you are actually friends or family with someone, you never really know what's going on behind closed doors no matter how much they are in the public eye.

re: The But ATP hikes are also gonna play a part sooner or later. Yes, as ticket prices rise, some folks will either get priced out or decide tickets are too costly. At the same time as purchasing power rises and memories fade about how much ticket used to cost, then it starts to ebb back. Or to put a different way, might just see the gap shift a bit as time moves on. Be interesting to look for at the macro level over the next three, four, five years.

BTW. for folks who care about such things, looks like social/review embargo for GBFE will be the day before previews: Now, I know waaaaaaay too many folks overreact to this sort of thing (KP4 just had a review drop at a similar time and gee wiz, it did fairly well over at RT all things considered), but I mostly care about how it affects ticket purchase patterns. Like, this isn't gonna be getting a boost when many similar films will be. Maybe marketing will do the heavy lifting instead. But just something to keep an eye on as we start to get to T-8 to T-5 when various films will be getting social/review bumps and GBFE won't.

I do worry a bit about the Musical Penalty, FWIW. Each of the last three releases that were pseudo stealth musicals all got hit with a penalty for not putting it in the marketing, with only Wonka really being able to overcome it via WOM. Not that I think it'll be a huge factor; but I do think it will be one. Especially if they're not upfront about the musical elements in the marketing. It's not so much I think there will be a revolt over it so much as a level of resistance. Mind, I also think there will be folks who will show up for the irony/incredulity of a "Joker musical" which will help offset it a bit. But the GA has still shown a... hesitancy to musicals lately and I think that should be factored in as a possible wildcard.

Might be thinking of my post here: though keyser might have said something similar as I have to think the national stats are similar. NB: That's also at stop of tracking, so local stats would be even higher as it doesn't account for tickets bought after 4:30pm local time.

Plus there's the whole "avoiding spoilers" situation. If you only watch, say, the first three episodes, and want to see how other people reacted? DODGEBALL TIME. Hell, just surfing at all will be problematic. Glad I'm not in the middle of a Fallout game run because, as one can imagine, searching for information about how to solve one particular quest or search YT for one particular vid will leave one up to the whims of The All Mighty Algorithm deciding to serve you up content about Fallout, the TV series. (yes, I'm STILL salty about having the ending to Jedi: Fallen Order ruined for me as I was looking for tips on how to solve a puzzle thanks to YT's oh-so-helpful algorithm of suggested videos on the side bar) People like to say, "oh just watch at your own pace", and that's true to an extent. Not nearly as true in practice if one actually cares about not being spoiled.

I agree with all of that, FWIW. The original reason why I... Hmmm, "playfully teased a bit" about the range all those months ago is I felt the numbers were a bit too... arbitrary isn't quite the right word so instead I'll say: a bit too inflexible/ironclad. As it is, I personally prefer the soft range that you're discussing here and agree with it 100% (or maybe 99.9999% as there's always room for comment after all). ... At the same time soft fuzzy ranges that are more like transition states make for terrible memes, so who am I to judge? 😛 (still, have to admit, will be HILARIOUS when Wonka just misses 225. 😉)

Was thinking about TLM as well, at least for the start. So already in the mix, as it were. Minions 2 will be good at the very end, but absolutely terribad at the beginning. Like, "WOW, Inside Out 2 gonna break Endgame's OW!!!! " level terribad. To show you what I mean, here are the beginning sales of AtSV and Minions 2 side by side. Minions 2: [10.75] Spider-Verse 2 [17.35] T-24: 68 T-24: 1019 T-23: 53 T-23: 253 T-22: 38 T-22: 87 T-21: 39 T-21: 101 T-20: 37 T-20: 99 T-19: 22 T-19: 42 T-18: 36 T-18: 81 T-17: 24 T-17: 60 T-16: 28 T-16: 79 T-15: 29 T-15: 71 T-14: 12 T-14: 94 T-13: 33 T-13: 83 T-12: 34 T-12: 85 T-11: 85 T-11: 93 T-10: 24 T-10: 154 One of those is not like the other. 👍

That is, SMB was an All Day release, and while we do have a couple of people who tracked it (those brave brave souls), All Day Releases are just a different animal than preview releases, if only because of the added matinee/early bird showings.

No previews = no track from Yours Truly. 🙂

AtSV comes into play, perhaps? Depending on the level of up front interest, which should be pretty high, think that could be the most natural if there is a Big First Day. ETA::: Talking sales pattern not so much sales level here, BTW.

Pity I won't have dailies for it. However, "knowing" that Sonic 2 is still a decent comp (and that Minions 2 will be good at the very end) helps at least somewhat. (the real Trump Card for me at least is GBA ATP'd. Love that I decided to do the dailies for that one as it still ticks all sorts of "ehhhh, maaaaaybe" boxes 2.3 years down the road)

Wonka just claimed that crown. At 217.7m right now. Does look like the $225m line is safe though (and I unironically note that this is another win for @M37 if a very close for comfort one). Should top out at, what, 221m? 220m to 222m? Something like that at any rate (unless it gets some late late legs thanks to Dune: Part Two).