Porthos

So I went back and checked, and nothing came within a million of Joker in either direction, even with a couple of tracks I made at 4pm. These were the three closest: 105.12% of Ant-Man and the Wasp (12.09m) 20.43% of Endgame (12.26m) 36.77% of Infinity War (14.34m) If I had the foresight to only comp EG and IW, I would have nailed it by picking that mid-point, but ain't no way I would have done that. Not without 3D and slightly less PLF penetration locally. Though I suppose the adult ticket sales helped counter-balance that. If I restrict my comps to all of the CBMs I have and that's it I'm still off by a million (12.35m) and that's with a ludicrous Black Panther comp (15.05m). But since I decided a while back to "retire" BP from my comps, due to too many new theaters in town, when I exclude that I get 11.9m which was just outside of my high end of 11.8 last night. So, in the end, I am forced to conclude that I couldn't have called this based on Sacramento. Guess locally we don't live in a society after all.

*wakes up* *gets to computer* LolDeadline. LOLDEADLINE AGAIN!!! LolSacramento (we really underperformed) HURRAH for @captainwondyful's tracking average coming far closer than Deadline ever did. I think that just about covers it all. 👍

Oh yes, lolDeadline forever and ever. Amen. (even the updated 10-12 range was way off lulz)

No two ways about it, both Sacramento and Denver massively underperformed. (LS13 and Philly still over-performed, mind) I might go back and look through my comps to see if anything would have predicted this, but I doubt it. Or at least something that would have given me pause. In the end, I think it might just be a case of patchwork performance: Over-performing in some areas, under-performing in others, averaging out to the mid-point of the two (13 is in the middle of the 11 and 15 range, after all). I just happened to be in one the under-performing markets. At least the average 12.66 came far closer than any Deadline estimate did. I'll take our collective result there against a 13.3 any day.

Part of the reason I ain't that upset. === Though, separately, I do think something needs to be done about this whole emergence of Super Teams and Bottom Feeders. Ain't healthy for the league. Not one bit. Even if my Astros are one of the Super Teams, I just don't like it. Problem is, I'm not quite sure how to solve it in the next CBA. I think getting rid of draft pick penalties for going over the luxury tax will help. Shortening the arb-window another (like that'll ever happen). Probably the most radical thing would be to expand the WCS to best of three so it actually feels like something to shoot for for the middle class teams. I doubt any of these things will happen though. Maybe the luxury tax one. Could also see maybe trading draft picks helping as well as re-establishing draft pick protection for the bottom ten teams who sign a draft pick compensated player. Actually, come to think of it, getting rid of penalties for signing draft pick compensated players altogether needs to happen and needs to happen yesterday. I don't mind teams getting "free" draft picks for losing players to FA. But do it like the NFL does it where it's an extra thing based on a formula (IIRC) and not also a penalty. That might actually have a chance of happening, come to think of it. Gives a slight boost to aging players and I can't see teams getting all that upset about no longer having to factor in loss of draft picks when it comes to player signing. Aside from all that, I don't have much. But I do think it needs to be looked at before it gets to crisis levels.

Hadn't read it yet (wasn't on the MLB Front Page when I just checked). Yep. Sounds like classic Brisbee. Thanks for letting me know about it. === He ain't wrong about Buehler - or all of the other super young talent, BTW. So unfair. By year six or seven of division winning one is supposed to be on the downswing of the win curve, not ramping up to even more domination. (Mind you, the Gigantes farm system is actually, finally, on its own major upswing so I ain't that upset)

Summary of the Tracking thread:

*checks* Judy looks to be around 1400+ according to BOM. Not wide-wide, though I see what you mean. No, I was more talking about a 3000+ screen release type thing, though Judy absolutely does fit the bill for counter-programming.

To make an addendum to this, since this is the only new wide film this week and with some tepid holdovers, I understand why theaters went nuts with showtimes, especially tonight. But in retrospect, there clearly was room for another film to open wide this weekend and counter-program against Joker much like A Star is Born did against Venom last year at the same time.

Might even have to wait till third or fourth weekend drops as there are A LOT of showings tonight and somewhat into the weekend itself. Far more than demand justifies, in my opinion. Could be that a ton of demand will be burnt this weekend/Tuesday, leading to a larger than expected drop before stabilizing to a fairly decent run when all is said and done. (also, Joker loses PLF to Gemini Man for the most part next week, if not entirely)

More from the article: In other words, not a lot hard crunch in there. Rest of the article looks to have been pre-written this morning and contains quite a few things that would just lead to flames in this thread, or at least tedious arguments, so I'm leaving them to the side for now. Still, it's at the link if folks want to read it.

https://deadline.com/2019/10/joker-box-office-opening-weekend-1202752002/ Early Deadline Preview Estimate: 10m+

Allow me to also throw support @Eric!'s way. Fair, even-handed... LIKES MAKING WEEKEND THREADS and pretty respected by the forum as near as I can tell. ... Did I mention he likes making Weekend Threads? Just checking.

My TS4/TLK misses say otherwise, but thanks for the vote of confidence.

Either 11m (data) or 11.25m (more or less call). Your choice. EDIT::: @captainwondyful Put me down for 11m in the comp sheet. Data is data and calls are calls, and the two really shouldn't be mixed. If it's wrong, it's wrong. ... Also I don't feel like going through my dozen other comps I have to see if I can refine it or not.

I threw in the 4pmers I had as something of a tie-breaker even though there will be far fewer kids tickets sold for Joker than Pika PIka. On the other hand, KotM had both 3D and huge PLF penetration. Looking everything over, gonna stick with my earlier call of 11m to 11.5m, +/- .3m. That's a wider range I like, but this is an atypical movie in a year filled with atypical movies. It DID sell a lot this half-day. I even made sure to go back and re-index some of the heavy hitters (and I'm glad I did). But no matter how it's sliced, Sacramento just isn't showing 15m. That's why the 4pmers were included. Maybe Sacramento is underperforming. Wouldn't surprise me. But I can't personally see much more than 12m or 12.5m. But I've been wrong before and I'll be wrong again. Either way, this is what Sacramento is showing. I'll take a quick look at other CBMs and see if they're showing much of a difference. But given the later start times AND 3D, I'm not hopeful for much of a difference. EDIT: All of the comps average out to 10.95m, for what it's worth. So, probably put me down for 11m in your comp sheet, @captainwondyful, even though I'm eyeing more something like 11.25m. But that later number is an adjusted call and not data. If you'd rather use 11.25m or the 11m to 11.5m range in your archive, fine by me.

Joker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:00pm - 4:00pm] Sellouts Showings Seats left Total Seats Seats Sold Perct Sold TOTALS 0 250 23635 29138 5503 18.89% Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day 950 Final Unadjusted Comp Time % Sold Since Mid Day Total Sold Sellouts / Shows Seats Left / Total Seats Perct Sold Comp It 2 4:00-5:00 97.24 1090 5659 0/236 18125/23784 23.79% 10.21m Final Adjusted Comps #1 Time % Sold Since Mid Day Total Sold Sellouts / Shows Seats Left / Total Seats Perct Sold Comp JW2 5:30-6:15 77.73 1275 6228 1/147 7487/13715 45.41% 11.89m DP2 5:30-6:30 59.52 1262 8133 3/169 8357/16490 49.32% 11.07m Joker (adj) 3:00-4:00 n/a 795 4841 0/250 17492/22333 21.68% n/a ADJUSTMENT NOTE: Joker (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom and Deadpool 2. Final Adjusted Comps #2 Time % Sold T-0 Mid Day Total Sold Sellouts / Shows Seats Left / Total Seats Perct Sold Comp Venom 4:15-4:50 109.90 1012 4493 0/127 8736/13229 33.96% 10.99m Joker (adj) 3:00-4:00 n/a 819 4938 0/250 19868/24806 19.91% n/a ADJUSTMENT NOTE: Joker (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Venom. Final Adjusted 4pm Comps Time % Sold Since Mid Day Total Sold Sellouts / Shows Seats Left / Total Seats Perct Sold Comp Pika Pika 3:30-4:00 175.87 447 3096 0/112 7172/10268 30.15% 10.02m KotM 3:20-4:00 189.19 492 2878 0/129 12885/15763 18.26% 11.91m OUaTiH ???-4:00 182.29 ----- 2987 ----- 4565/7552 39.55% 10.57m Joker (adj) 3:00-4:00 n/a 942 5445 0/250 21497/26942 20.21% n/a ADJUSTMENT NOTE: Joker (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom and Deadpool 2. Thoughts and what I think might be the comp in a few minutes.

Sacramento, California (PDT). Takes me a bit to write everything up, so I'll prob post it around 7:15 to 7:25 your time.

Joker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY UPDATE) [12:00pm - 12:50pm] Sellouts Showings Seats left Total Seats Seats Sold Perct Sold TOTALS 0 250 24585 29138 4553 15.63% Total Showings Added Since Last Night 1 Total Seats Added Since Last Night 110 Total Seats Sold Since Last Night 842 T-0 Mid-Day Unadjusted Comps % Sold T-0 Mid Day Total Sold Sellouts/Shows Seats Left/Total Seats Perct Sold Comp It 2 99.65 749 4569 0/236 19215/23784 19.21% 10.46m T-0 Mid-Day Adjusted Comps #1 % Sold T-0 Mid Day Total Sold Sellouts/Shows Seats Left/Total Seats Perct Sold Comp DP2 58.89 942 6871 0/167 9330/16201 42.41% 10.95m Joker (adj) n/a 719 4046 0/250 18287/22333 18.12% n/a ADJUSTMENT NOTE: Joker (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Deadpool 2. T-0 Mid-Day Adjusted Comps #2 % Sold T-0 Mid Day Total Sold Sellouts/Shows Seats Left/Total Seats Perct Sold Comp Venom 118.33 725 3481 0/127 9748/13229 26.31% 11.83m Joker (adj) n/a 752 4119 0/250 20687/24806 16.60% n/a ADJUSTMENT NOTE: Joker (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Venom. ==== Another killer (clown) day in Sacto. Comps are converging nicely around 11m (I say that because Joker will probably pass It 2 at final report). Maybe 11.5, if Venom is more indicative. But as I warned last night, the Venom comp already dropped by about 500k, and I won't be surprised to see it drop again at final report. Got some things to do, but I might add some more comps of more of a lol-ish nature in a bit. Prob depend on if they say anything interesting. But at the mo, let's look around 11 to 11.5m. See how it looks at 3pm to 4pm-ish.

Nice article from SWNN. Most of it is based on this tweet: But the article itself over at SWNN is pretty through on the back story and possible angles here. Now, could just be being coy, so file under RUMOR for now.

Gonzo amount of tickets sold today. And continued to gain ground on It 2. However, it did only out sell It 2 by 40 seats, so keep that in perspective. At least some of it is the shortened window of pre-sales. Regardless, if Sacto is any indication, 10m+ is a near certainty at this point for Thr. 11m might be very much in the cards. Then there is that Venom comp. A note about that. Venom did crazy stupid walkup numbers the day of release, so keep that in mind. It might be indicative. Or it might just be a T-1 blip. One good thing is both Venom and It 2 had 5pm previews. Which means while there will be some adjustment due to 4pm versus 5pm, it won't nearly be as bad as Deadpool 2, which had 7pm previews. That almost certainly means Joker will be under-indexed against it. Then again. DP2 over-performed a bit locally, I think. So maybe it'll wash out in the end. I might throw in the 4pm comps I do have in a separate post tomorrow for shits and giggles. Depends on how good they look and if any of them pass the smell test and/or give a radically different result from what I'm already comping. All in all, looking good for Joker on Thr. After that? Time will tell, as it usually does.

Joker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting Sellouts Showings Seats left Total Seats Seats Sold Perct Sold TOTALS 0 249 25317 29028 3711 12.78% Total Showings Added Today 5* Total Seats Added Today 619 Total Seats Sold Today 1041 * Includes 1 showing from an non-reserved seating theater T-1 Unadjusted Comps % Sold T-1 Total Sold Sellouts/Shows Seats Left/Total Seats Perct Sold Comp It 2 97.15 1001 3820 0/233 19743/23563 16.21% 10.20m T-1 Adjusted Comps #1 % Sold T-1 Total Sold Sellouts/Shows Seats Left/Total Seats Perct Sold Comp DP2 56.11 835 5929 0/166 10226/16155 36.70% 10.44m Joker (adj) n/a 931 3327 0/249 18896/22223 14.97% n/a ADJUSTMENT NOTE: Joker (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Deadpool 2. T-1 Adjusted Comps #2 % Sold T-1 Total Sold Sellouts/Shows Seats Left/Total Seats Perct Sold Comp Venom 122.17 498 2756 0/122 10414/13170 20.93% 12.22m Joker (adj) n/a 951 3367 0/249 21329/24696 13.63% n/a ADJUSTMENT NOTE: Joker (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Venom.

Excuse me, I believe it's Mr. Pink's job to quote spoiler posts in a WE thread.

The one very real danger we might have with Joker is that there does seem to be something of a regional split here. Philly on one extreme, Denver on another to pick two examples. On the other hand, there might be very good reasons for Denver to underperform for this specific movie, so perhaps this is a unique-ish case where Denver isn't the greatest of comps for the nation as a whole.

Don't have any AMCs nearby me, so I can't answer that. Don't even know how a customer could cancel their ticket in such an occasion except for going to the theater directly. Maybe there's a way to still view your seats via your email? Anyway, presumably AMC might wait for a certain amounts of refunds (say five or ten tickets??) before going through the hassle of re-listing. But, like I said, having no direct experience with AMC (either buying or tracking), I couldn't tell ya.