LinksterAC

I have a hard time seeing China account for ~100M admissions from where I’m sitting. Can you get me there?

That’s not the question I think we should be asking. The question I’m asking is: is COVID likely to affect people’s ability &/or decision making about going to the movies? My answer: not more than any number of respiratory viruses that prevented people from seeing movies every year. With the exception of China, of course.

I don’t think it’s strange. I don’t know that I think EG’s run was more impressive. I’d say similarly impressive. But I can see people favoring one or the other.

Note that the word “happen” is in the past tense.

I hope that helps!

@charlie Jatinder did some great simple math on the difference having *just* Canada off this week does. Something like this: If Canada is over-indexing by 100%, then on a 6M weekday for A2, about 25% (1.5M) of the gross comes from Canada instead of 12.5% (0.75M). Even if the USA increases a superb 100%, 4.5M from the USA becomes 9M. Canada, still on holiday, increases very little comparatively and goes from 1.5M to 1.8M. Friday becomes 10.8M total (+80%), instead of 12M (+100%). That's just if Canada is on holiday. But I'm sure some Americans are too.

Good points. Hadn't thought of it from that angle before.

I was starting to think that my 45M prediction was going to be to low based on early estimates yesterday, but a 6.5 THU is actually what I projected 45M from.

There's no universal rule on this in the English language environment. You'll find some groups where some people are offended, & others where people will laugh about it. But, in any event, I think it's fair to respect someone if they are hurt by those words or are concerned that someone else on the boards may be. So props to you for being considerate.

Picked 45 in the competition thread, but it’s soundly beaten the weekday projections I extrapolated that from.

I don’t know. Possibly. I do think there’s another possibility: This movie appeals to demographic groups that are underrepresented on social media & don’t rush to go see films when they release. I’m pretty sure my mother’s known about this movie being released for weeks. But like my MIL, it was 2+ weeks before they talked about going to see it. I remember the same thing happened with A1 in 2009. Edit: I stress this a theory & that we shouldn’t get caught up in my anecdata.

My mom just texted me asking when we’re going to go see it.

My bad, ROTK NYD was Thursday, not Friday. Thanks for pointing that out. And, yeah, I think 2X is probably a fair comparison between ROTK midweek traffic & A2. With RO being roughly halfway in between the two. That said, I don’t think that it’s self-evident that a holiday being observed at the beginning of the work week results in a significant amount of people taking the subsequent days or entire week off. It’s certainly not evident from RO’s run, which had a strong Monday, but then dropped the way you might expect coming out of the holidays. (Mid 70s w2w). And remember that per Asgard, the geographical area that’s over-indexing is Canada, where this is still a true week off. Also, I think there is more than one “real difference” between A2 & RO. Specifically, a runtime that’s an hour longer. Which has a bearing on mid-week showtimes as the LOTR films showed us long ago—which is a large part of the reason I thought they were worth looking at in the first place.

Should have done that before I asked. Bold, dude. What was your prediction for last weekend, and how did that turn out?

Do you see a 56+M weekend coming?

I agree it's certainly hard to find good comparisons, but not "at all"? Seems at least as good a comparator as other movies being talked about. Some questions to ponder: What does 1.65M of 2003 regular format ticket sales translate to in 2022 with PLF premiums? Is it 1/4 the admissions? Unless we're counting the opening weekend (ROTK opened on a Wednesday), ROTK's third Thursday was on Jan. 8. It was also during the first week after the holidays, like A2, as New Years landed on the previous Friday instead of Sunday (for A2). Incidentally, can we quantify how much the distance from the holidays affects the Thu multiplier? It seems like Charlie gave us a sense of where the inflation was coming from: Canada--which I already mentioned. Consider that RO saw WTW drops very similar to (if not a bit lighter) than ROTK. A2 is holding better than both. Not here trying to say how I'm looking at it is absolutely right. But dismissing outright seems a bit harsh.

I wouldn't be surprised if it got there & flirted with 50M this weekend. Using the Thursday multiplier is difficult to parse for me because Canada being on holiday should drag that multiplier down but the long runtime should lift it back up. ROTK (long runtime) had a multiplier in the 8.5x vicinity (IIRC), whereas RO (same schedule) was around 5.5x. 7x splits that difference, so it seems like a reasonable guess. Edit: All that said, I also wouldn't be surprised if the number it was flirting with was 40M.

Whether it's 7.3, 7.4 or 7.5 it's a great number. Feeling ok about my 45M weekend prediction.

Only doubt I have is the runtime. RO did 5.6x the Thursday number for this weekend, but it's an hour shorter than A2. ROTK (18 minutes longer?) did 8.6x.

I said it would take past Boxing Day to get a sense of this film’s trajectory. I was wrong. I still have no idea and I’m not sure this weekend will even tell us. This film’s run may end up looking a lot more like its predecessor’s than many of us thought possible.

Plus consider the runtime. I was honestly expecting something around $8M because I just couldn't see how you squeeze enough viable shows into a regular weekday with a 190M runtime.

I don't know if I agree it's evident, but I definitely agree it's possible. This movie is hard to find a comparator for.

I'm cringing at potentially ceding "pro-family" to the extreme RW. Why can't we just say that Cameron finds a way to touch fundamental human values for a wide variety of people. Including internationally! Edit: I'll add that, speaking as a father, that article is one of the better ones I've ever seen from The Federalist & a good article in its own right.

Didn't you just do this with RO?

With this runtime, I’m pretty surprised 10M on a weekday is the middle of the confidence interval. Great number if it holds.