LinksterAC

Oh…he did? Dang it. Maybe he’s just become the mental repository for all Cameron Stans.

Also, I’ll add that I only come to these forums rarely these days & only for big events like this one, but it’s hilarious to me that one of the “replays” I’m experiencing from 2009 is Iron Jimbo’s reaction. Wasn’t he puffing his chest about the first Avatar, & then absent during it’s opening weekend too? So funny.

A lot of the writing here was lazy &/or dumb. One example is the “consciousness disk image” idea that begs enormous questions about why Jake was even needed to pilot his Avatar in the first firm. The repeated theme with this bad writing isn’t that it breaks the film, but rather leaves me spending time trying to fill in the holes while I should be absorbing the film. Another example is the beat-for-beat rehashes of the plot points from the first film which just felt even self-referential ly unoriginal sometimes: “Dances with Wolves in Space but this time in Water!” That said, the characters are generally incredibly likable, especially the Na’vi kids, & the family focus makes the emotional core of the film is more universal & resonant than the first movie. And the action & visuals are holy smokes you absolutely have to see it. Overall, I really like the film & will probably see it multiple times, but I just wish that after 13 years the writing could be better.

Good points all around & I think what I point to with 2009’s example is not that it will repeat 2009’s performance, but just that those writing the final story for this movie in this thread are being premature in a way that’s not possible as with the typical blockbuster. Things that make it hard to gauge are actually things you pointed to, just viewed from another perspective (which you touch on a bit, admittedly): This movie is unstreamable in a way others aren’t, because of its broad appeal its WOM seems likely to the the old-fashioned kind (not primarily social media), & PLF is just as supply-constrained on this as it was for the first flick (which I think was a factor in its legs). Again, this is not used as an argument to say it will duplicate original, but just one to warn people against extrapolating so much from this weekend. I think I’d wait for after Boxing Day, even, as the week between Christmas & New Years can really affect the trajectory.

Yes. The one baked-in drop off for this film comes WW in that China basically doesn’t exist anymore.

So much of the reaction in here evokes the reaction in December 2009. I’m in a perpetual state of déjà vû. I’m definitely in wait & see mode, and after having seen the movie, a repeat of the original’s run seem totally within the realm of possibilities.

The poll at the top of the page on the ages of our fellow forum members may explain…a lot. 😆

I’ll say this as someone who has pretty serious criticisms of this movie’s writing, its emotional core is solid gold & will have a broad appeal. It’s also a must-see in terms of the technical achievement, and really should be seen in the best PLF you have available. All that points me in the direction of a suppressed(ish) opening weekend & long, long legs—just like the original. Despite my criticisms, I’ll definitely be seeing it again.

Decent story as such, but despite that still an unparalleled experience. Suffers from some bad writing, but makes up for it with a warm emotional core, mostly good performances (except for maybe one) & production quality so good I honestly couldn’t believe any of it wasn’t real. I didn’t find the dialogue at all cringeworthy. This is no Attack of the Clones. It has some serious problems, but I still think everyone should see it. It’s just a spectacle that shouldn’t be missed. My guess is that the spectacle & the emotional appeal of the story will connect with a wide range of viewers, & that this thing will do very nicely at the box office.

Just got back from my showing. My thoughts? Even if you don’t like giant holes in the ground, you should still see the Grand Canyon. Even if you don’t like subpar writing, you should still see Avatar 2. Edit: Oh yeah, box office! I think this is going to have very broad appeal & very little competition. If China still existed as a box office market, I think it would flirt with the original’s first run. Absent China, O/U = Titanic w/re-releases?

Finally watched TG2. Matinee, but 1/3 full auditorium. Applause at the end. Overheard a group of 60+ year olds saying they’d watch it again right now. For my part, absolutely loved it. Most thrilling action flick I’ve seen in years. It deserves all the dollars.

Welp, this is fun.

Re: MCU 1 billion expectation discussion. Maybe I'm a doof, but doesn't the uncertain nature of the Chinese Box Office for the foreseeable future seriously diminish the chances of any films making it to 1B? Do we factor that in to the MCU's performances recently? Anyway, for my part, I don't see the current crop of films as meaningfully better or worse than the average MCU flick from the Infinity Stones Era.

Those aren't the only ways to assess the relevance of a movie, though. So the lack of evidence is therefore not evidence of a lack. I guess I'd just point to anecdotes like mine, and this monstrous opening weekend to suggest that is indeed broadly popular--even among a segment of Millennials. Edit: Derp, just saw the moderation post. This will be my last word on this subject.

This is a tough ask, because it's not like there's a ton of controlled academic study into the relevance of most movies with a certain age cohort. That said, I'm on the older end of the Millennial generation (35+), and Top Gun is absolutely iconic for me and my friends. Everyone in high school had seen it.

This older Millennial approves of this message.

I agree. I also think we may have an unexpected breakout--just because the demand seems to be there.

I think, as relates to the box office, the first paragraph is, for better or worse, essentially a non-factor in America at this point. Despite Omicron spiking, the majority are opposed to new restrictions (see below). I don't think we'll see much impact on Spidey's box office run. (Sort of a grassroots gut check on that: Friends in SF (which was extremely pro-restrictions) report that restaurants are absolutely packed right now.) https://scottrasmussen.com/pandemic-74-close-to-resuming-normal-life/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Polling Update December 30 2021&utm_content=Polling Update December 30 2021+CID_c9adadf7aedf94c3157ccf6b5a114c5b&utm_source=Email marketing software MSAZenSendv3&utm_term=74 of voters are close to resuming their normal life

Not a chance.

Yeah, Dune had an amazing run, considering. Though I think the IMAX format & overall visual aesthetic made it more marketable as a theater-first experience.

Not really the thread for either of your comments.

Believe me, I know the rationale behind the Canadian lockdowns (that seem to have dubious benefit, anyway). I'm just highlighting that the USA & Canada are on very different trajectories on policy and that should mean the market is mostly very healthy for new openers in North America.

Nah, DeBlasio had a press conference on Omicron yesterday (NYC has highest case rates ever right now), and added absolutely zero new restrictions. Not even a mask mandate. America & Europe/Canada have diverged in a big way this winter. California can't even enforce a mask mandate right now. EDIT: To keep it box office focused, I'll add: I don't think Québec will be much copy-catted. Should have a minimal impact on NWH's trajectory. The market of theater-goers is just over COVID at this point.

I can only speak for myself, but I definitely feel character growth in those scenes. Sure, Peter uses Stark's tech, but it's well established that Peter's a genius in his own right. Every genius uses someone else's tools to their own ends (google Isaac Newton's quote about standing on the shoulders of giants). And then he literally uses this tech to design his own suit (eschewing the Iron Spider), for his own purposes, for a scene where he relies on it, his wits, and his unique "Peter-tingle" to outsmart and defeat the bad guy.

Doesn't Happy answer this question during the movie? Even Tony Stark couldn't be Tony Stark. He was a "mess," in Happy's words. I think the movie decides to ask that question so that it can give the answer: Don't be Tony Stark. Even Tony Stark couldn't be Tony Stark. Be Peter Parker. A character theme since maybe Civil War is that even Tony Stark himself sees a potential in Peter to be more than Tony by being different than Tony. This movie carries that theme forward, and builds smartly off their well-established mentor-apprentice relationship.