LinksterAC

Fantastic flick. The Mysterio vs. Spidey action sequences were highlights for me, and felt very true to the comics. Gyllenhaal was a bit of a revelation as Mysterio, and there hasn't been a better Spider-Man/Peter Parker than Tom Holland. The guy just nails it, even down to the Queens accent. The Tony Stark callbacks were touching, and well-used, particularly the "engineering-on-the-fly" (no pun intended) scene on Happy's jet. I loved seeing JK Simmons reprise his role as J. Jonah Jameson. The identity reveal is uncharted territory for this character, but so was sexy May, and the Stark-Parker relationship. This Spidey-phile is excited to see where it all goes. At this point, I have no reason to doubt the MCU will do it narrative justice. I'm already looking forward to a second viewing. Superb stuff!

I’m a bit disappointed that it’s looking like a photo finish for the second weekend record. I was hoping to relive the delirious excitement of last weekend. That said, squint your eyes and pretend that TFA’s second weekend doesn’t exist. The next closest second weekend isn’t even in barking distance, and we are looking at 60M second Saturday. Astounding really.

Every 3-hour movie I’ve tracked has seen stronger-than-average Saturday bumps. But you’re right, it’s been a while, and none have opened at this scale. That said, I think effectively the net conclusion is the same: we should wait and see how Saturday is performing for EG before drawing conclusions about the weekend.

I thought conventional wisdom was that for a three hour film you always wait to see what that Saturday jump is going to be.

Stronger hold than I expected. That is a damn fine number.

357M? That seals it. This is the best weekend of box office tracking I've had in my 20 years of the hobby. Unreal.

*cackle* Du hast den Witz gefunden. (You found the joke.)

Aus einem Deutschen. Keine Überraschung.

At the time of its release, I can’t think of a worse received or worse reviewed film than Attack of the Clones. And ROTS still followed the “Star Wars Pattern.” Granted, it featured the birth of Darth Vader. But you guys are kidding yourselves if you don’t think there are more people out there who loved TLJ than Clones. Lots of people really love TLJ. (Including the critics, who actually admire it as a work of film—unlike Episode II).

Geez, I started posting back at the Box Office Mojo forums almost 20 years ago. Fun to see some of the same user names from back in those days still featuring prominently in this community. This weekend has brought a lot of lurkers out of the woodwork. We are really witnessing something special with EG’s run. With that in mind, I bought a premium account as a big thank you for the guys who established BOT and kept the old BOM flame alive. This is a special weekend, and we all wouldn’t be able to experience it like this without this forum. It’s a special place for a special time.

Avatar benefited from insanely favorable exchange rates. For example, when it released CAD and USD were par. Now one USD buys 1.35 CAD. There are similar changes with most other major currencies. Now, ten years of ticket price inflation cancels a lot of that out, but the point stands. If (when, in my opinion) End Game surpasses Avatar, it will do so in every way that counts. No caveats.

Those who are expecting CW/Ultron drops next weekend are starting to kid themselves here. The proof is numbers, and the internal multipliers so far just don’t support you. Especially with a 110 floor for Saturday. Endgame’s closest analog in terms of its internal multipliers right now is...Infinity War. Again—just look at the numbers. The thing is, this film is better received than its predecessor, and it’s pulling everything into its hype cyclone. I think its multiplier will be closer to 2012 Avengers than AIW. I think both TFA and Avatar are toast—and it probably won’t be by a slim margin.

After Rth's last report, I think they may be talking about a two-day gross.

Over 330 seems a little bit too excited for me right now, but this movie is a joy to track! That said, some not too crazy numbers (all rounded): 145 Friday 102 Saturday -30% 77 Sunday -26% 324 If it has those drops at the top end of the Friday range (150): 150 Friday 105 Saturday 78 Sunday 333

So many variables go into a film's success or failure, it seems lazy to try to blame one thing. That said, I'm looking at this performance from the perspective of the studio. The state of the world's most arguably lucrative franchise is basically this: The last main line film in the series was not universally loved, though it was financially successful The latest entry in the franchise is looking like a legitimate loser The hardcore fanbase is upset and growing increasingly alienated Love her or hate her, anyone who doesn't think KK is in hot water right now is kidding themselves.

I'm stunned. Solo's global BO run looks like it might actually lose money for the studio. This scenario was heretofore unimaginable for this franchise. To me, that makes this one of the most interesting weekends of the year. I never thought I'd see a Star Wars movie bomb. Not even AOTC managed that. We'll be discussing the nature and consequences of this failure for a long time.

These numbers are meh. I loved TLJ, but I'm starting to think it's left a sour taste in the mouth of too wide a swath of the population. Edit: Not TLJ itself, but the consistent condescending tone Lucasfilm has taken towards fans critical of the movie, and the direction they're taking the franchise. "Sorry to have brought identity/gender politics into... NOPE. Not sorry AT ALL 'cause I think the GALAXY George gave birth to in '77 is big enough for EVERYONE: straight, gay, black, white, brown, Twi'lek, Sullustan, Wookiee, DROID & anything inbetween. #droidrights #weAREsentient" -Jonathan Kasdan I mean, I think he's right. But spare me the pontificating.

Yeah, I think it's tracking to about a 46% drop and a $34M weekend.

AOU dropped 44% in its fourth frame. I'm guessing $34M this weekend for AIW. For $34M, AIW will have to lose close to 46% of its business from the third weekend. I was scratching my head trying to explain why the most reasonable drop I could think of was worse than the equivalent AOU drop, since AIW is generally exhibiting much better legs. Then @Rebeccas pointed out that AOU's fourth weekend was Memorial Day. Now I have an explanation (and she has a like).

Good point. That makes me a lot more comfortable with my $34M prediction.

Strong Monday number for AIW. If it weren't for BP functioning as a recent comparison, we'd be pretty impressed with its legs coming off a record-breaking opening. AIW isn't playing at capacity any more, so I don't think the loss of screens to DP2's opening will affect it significantly. It's at a natural phase in its run to start shedding screens. There should be plenty of room in the market for both movies, and the hardcore fanboys have had plenty of time to see AIW. They shouldn't be cannibalizing each other at this point. I think it drops a little over 45% to about $34M. That said, I have a hard time seeing how this universally loved film has a worse fourth-weekend drop (-44.2%) than the less popular AOU.

16.8% Monday to Thursday drop for AIW vs. 18.4% for BP's second week. Showing some great legs this week.

It's second week percentage changes have tracked remarkably close to BP's. So close the differences just look like statistical noise. I'm sticking to my $69M third weekend prediction. It's behaving exactly like BP right now.

My rusty memory tells me that Mother's Day usually helps helps you or has no effect. In other words, it rarely hurts a movie. But I'm happy to be corrected.

I dunno...putting aside that weird Saturday, AIW day-to-day changes have basically been exactly in-step with with BP's, just with higher dollar amounts. I'm going to go out on a limb and say the deflated Saturday last weekend translates into an abnormally strong hold this weekend. -40% to 68.9 mil.